Week 1 of the Major League Baseball season is a fresh start for everyone – teams, players, fans…And bettors. Last year’s bad beats are a thing of the past. This year’s MLB bet slips are wide open.
We’re not going to spoil the opening week party. But rather than diving in with tons of betting, we are saying be more selective in the early going.
Make that patience pay off with some MLB betting trends and opportunities that come up every year.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
First-Inning Fireworks and Favorites Folding
Baseball is back. Forget the sunshine, the lush outfields and lazy afternoons for a minute though.
We’re telling you: opening week in MLB betting is a volatile game.
Volatility is the key word in the early days of the MLB regular season.
It means the up-and-down fortunes of obviously stronger favorites, the wild swings as teams sort out their bullpens, and hitters feasting on the early innings and rookie middle relievers throwing cookies.
The favorites have their elite status for their past performance, not the current season. While they still might win their divisions come October, in late March and early April they are vulnerable.
But for now? The pre-season hype has usually overpriced last season’s playoff teams.
If you think opening day, or opening week for that matter, is predictable, check out the O’s.
The Baltimore Orioles have made the MLB playoffs a measly four times in the last 26 years. Although they had a solid 2024 season, they’re regularly feeding near the bottom of the AL East.
But on Opening Day for some reason, they’re killers. They’ve won more on Opening Day than any other team in the majors, a crazy 19 out of 26 games.
That means they’ve beaten high-priced favorites the majority of the time. Their SU profits on Day 1 are more than double the next-closest team.
The next 3 most profitable teams on Opening Day are the Mets, Mariners and Tigers. None of whom come to mind when you think of baseball royalty the past quarter century.
What does this tell MLB betting fans?
Favorites are not to be trusted, at least not blindly, this early in the season. Things are just too volatile.
On the flip side, if you see inflated odds for brand name, high-priced MLB teams, look for value with the underdogs.
Trends That Keep Cashing
Part of baseball’s appeal is its predictability and rhythm.
Fans dig the tradition. There’s a pace and a back-and-forth that lets you catch the game while hanging with friends.
Betting fans of MLB can count on some similarly predictable trends:
– First-inning overs. Aka YRFIs, these are a reliable play in the early days of MLB seasons.
Pitchers are still finding the zone, still building stamina. They don’t have their sea legs just yet. And bullpens are still being analyzed and tinkered with by coaches.
But hitters are healthy and their bats don’t care about analysis. Hitters just want to mash.
Recent data shows .56 runs scored in the first inning compared to .40 for the rest of the game. And that’s just the season as a whole.
Opening week typically has first inning runs scored at 0.7-0.8 per game. Last season, 55-57 % of games had a least one run in the first inning. On Opening Day, that number hit 58%.
– Underdog Moneylines. ‘Dog MLs can start the year off with a few quick W’s for Lucky Rebel players.
There’s no exact science explaining why this happens. But based on the volatility we explained above, the numbers for underdog moneyline wins in MLB can make sense.
Underperforming teams like the Orioles and Mets show that favorites in the early days are open to getting beat. And the books haven’t been able to crunch numbers yet for this season, so of course they’ll shade the lines towards the brand names.
Lucky Rebel bettors will find value with some research on matchup imbalance and roster strength in the underdogs that have a shot on opening week.
– Bullpen Fade Plays. Crush some overs in opening week, especially in late game live betting.
MLB relief pitching is one of the game’s most unpredictable elements early in the season. For all the reasons we outlined.
Managers need to see some mileage on their ‘pen before knowing the right mix and timing. Stress tests.
And teams with below-average bullpens from last season don’t completely fix their issues in one offseason.
Smart money – Lucky Rebel members’ money – can cash by fading teams with these middle and late game relief issues.
Do this by attacking full-game overs and taking plus-money on ‘dogs, especially when the favorite’s bullpen is a known weak spot.
Adjusting Expectations Before the Market Does
We know our players aren’t the type, but it’s worth mentioning. Clinging to last year’s storylines and playoff teams is the easiest way to play into the books’ hands early in the new MLB season.
You need to be flexible. See which of the division winners last season did little to fix any weak spots and maybe even lost a couple of stars to free agency.
See what teams called up a rook last September and now have him ready for prime time.
While you’re still waiting and mostly watching, the Sportsbooks don’t have that luxury. They need to put out those lines every day, from the first pitch of the season.
They’re still calibrating and will be for a few weeks. Lucky Rebel players can adjust expectations and react to early season trends before the market does.
It’s easier to turn around a speedboat than it is a cruise ship.
Annual MLB Trends Happen for a Reason
And that reason is to score you some early wins while mostly staying in the dugout.
Watch for bullpen weakness, look for some quality underdogs and bigger run production in the first inning, and exercise patience above all.
Value, not volume. That’s the move in the first few weeks of every MLB season.