When it comes to Week 4 for MLB odds, it definitely can pay when you bet on the warming weather across the league.
Since when did we need to become meteorologists? Actually, it’s not a bad gig. Decent hours, people expect you to be wrong half the time anyway, and the pay is decent.
The Overs come into play in MLB betting as we get into the second month of the season, catching the public sleeping while the sharps are able to forecast a solid chance of winning.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
April Weather Shifts the Totals Game
No need to over-complicate things. The ball simply starts traveling farther more by Week 4 of the MLB season.
Smart MLB bets factor in the weather change before the rest of the public market does.
We’ll be straight with you. Lucky Rebel is a betting site, not a weather channel. So we’ll keep it short: It’s called air density. Baseballs travel farther in warmer, less dense air.
On the field, those line drives that found an outfielder’s glove in early April suddenly carry into doubles in the gap. And those off-the-wall doubles suddenly start leaving the yard.
In late April, the heat begins to arrive in ballparks that might have been significantly cooler just a couple weeks earlier. And it’s coming in without the humidity of mid-summer, which can slow things down again.
MLB ballparks in places like New York, Chicago, and Boston fall into this category, as do pretty much half of the rest of the cities with a major league team. The Midwest and Northeast teams feel the biggest weather change.
Warmed-up hitters and warmer temperatures is a solid combo for MLB sluggers. Pitchers like it less.
Across the league overall, the HR/FB% (Home Run per Fly Ball rate) jumps 2-3% in early May compared to mid-April. This can translate into an increase in totals anywhere from half a run to a full run in some ballparks. And like a hitter’s swing, timing is everything. Better reaction times give hitters an edge, and it’s the same for bettors.
Sharps who start hitting those overs right at the beginning of May, especially on games played in those warming regions, have a better shot at beating the books.
How Books React – and How You Beat Them
Sportsbooks tend to be on the reactive side of setting lines, not proactive.
Recent trends, roster strength, and early-season data are big parts of a books’ method of setting the MLB odds on any given day.
Makes sense. They can’t move odds like totals too aggressively just based on what might happen in the next couple of days. They need to see a bigger sample size before making a call to boost the Over/Unders.
It takes time before the new stats bake into the numbers. Too risky otherwise. For them at least. Individual bettors at Lucky Rebel can afford to be more nimble.
Stats show that Sportsbooks’ totals in the 7.5-8 range are set for games that should be in the 9-10 range by Week 4, which often starts not long after mid-April with the earlier season starts in recent years.
Check the Cubs-Dbacks game this year in the 3rd week of April, with a 16-run eighth inning.
Five homers in the inning, and that’s after the Cubs’ grand slam in the 7th. Final score 13-11. That’s not happening at Wrigley in Week 1 with temperatures in the low 50’s. There’s also the public perception factor, which looks mainly at storylines, hot teams and hot bats. Most people are looking at homers and ERA, not digging into the weather patterns and warming trends across the country.
Lucky Rebel bettors will look past that, see the hotter temps in the Midwest and Northeast ballparks in late April and early May, and beat the slower books by a week or two by taking the Over.
Trends Worth Riding Before the Market Catches Up
The GOAT is still Coors Field in Denver when it comes to baseballs carrying. Dry, thin air is rocket fuel for the ball.
But it’s chilly in the first several weeks of the season, so totals are set at a fairly normal level.
Look for warming trends or heatwaves in Colorado closer to Week 4 and 5, before the totals have adjusted, and hammer the Over. Games can hit double digits easily.
The Rockies first home swing in early May this season had 6 straight games with totals hitting at least 12 runs.
Next, look at flyball pitchers. Warm weather is their kryptonite. When the air warms up, those lingering deep fly balls turn into doubles, triples and homers.
Look for matchups in warm air, where you’ve got a pitcher whose flyball rate is 40% or higher facing a power-hitting lineup. Then hit that Over again.
Getting deeper into the stats now, check out teams that have high hard-hit rates and rising wxOBAs, but haven’t seen them translate into big run totals.
Once the air warms up, those stats translate into an extra run or two.
Short porches are always a nice perk for home run hitters, but when they combine with warming air, they seem to get even shorter.
Check out famous short porch parks like Yankee Stadium, Fenway, and Cincy’s Great American Ball Park for Overs that might get a boost as the spring heats up.
NYY’s Aaron Judge had 6 homers in April this season. In a 2-week stretch starting May 1st, he went yard 5 times and hit 11 in May overall.
Kyle Schwarber? Also 6 in April, jumping to 10 four-baggers in May.
Stale lines = Good Times
The books ramp up their data work in baseball from Day 1, no question. Lines get more accurate week by week.
But some stale lines are still out there in the first month to month and a half, and sharp MLB bettors will jump on those Overs like a clean-up hitter seeing a fat one right over the plate.