Betting Arms, Not Bats: What Really Drives Postseason Wins
We get it. Since the days of Babe Ruth through Joe DiMaggio, Reggie Jackson, and Barry Bonds, homers get headlines. These days it’s Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani making noise with their bats.
Nothing gets the crowd going – and we mean the casual betting public as much as the regular fans – like a grand slam or a walk-off dinger. For all but the most die-hard baseball fans, an 8-7 MLB Playoff game is way more interesting than a 2-1 pitcher’s duel.
But it’s actually pitching that gives smart money the edge in October baseball, and that includes the World Series.
Check the latest MLB odds at Lucky Rebel.
Rotation Depth is the October Secret
In major league baseball’s regular season, every rotation has bad days, or even weeks. Injuries, weird road schedules throwing pitchers out of sync, and just the grind of game after game can mess up even the best pitching staff. But teams get away with it. With 162 games, you can hide 7-10 bad outings pretty easily.
By October, that margin for error drops to zero. Every pitch carries the weight of a team’s chances to advance or send them packing. Coaches and bullpens are on a hair-trigger. Teams throw the kitchen sink, bringing in a middle reliever to face even just one batter to get a matchup edge.
Betting fans and sportsbooks know that offensive numbers drop every October. Sure, you’ll still get a 13-4 blowout game occasionally. But it’s the pitching that has the upper hand, since coaches can optimize for every matchup through the late innings and not care nearly as much for the rest and rhythm that is needed between April and September baseball.
Deeper rotations have an even bigger edge. The usual MLB playoff team might have two aces. They’ll throw starter A into Game 1 and Game 4 or 5, and even lean on him for Game 7 if needed. Starter B will take Games 2 and 6.
But if a team has a pitching talent drop-off after those two? Watch out. Or grab your edge.
The third starter in the rotation could be a real liability. A player who went 11-12 with an ERA in the high 3’s during the season. And the #4 man, if the team wants to go with 4 starters? Could be even worse (or better, if you’re looking for a smart betting play). Look at MLB futures before the series to hit those Game 3 and Game 4 edges if you think the books aren’t locked in yet.
On the other hand, teams with three top starters win nearly 68% of their series in October. Sharps can cash in on the right futures play with this knowledge.
In 2019, the Washington Nationals had Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin putting up ace-level numbers all season. Still, the Nationals were at +1800 in some places heading into the playoffs. Only once in October did the Nats’ bullpen end up throwing for more innings than any of them in a single game. The team rode them right to a World Series win, and that +1800 would have made a solid payday for the smart money who spotted the edge that their deep rotation provided.
We like fading the opposite play too. If a staff has been stretched all postseason to 6 or 7 games, and there’s been an increase in early exits for their starters, they could be vulnerable. The betting public and even the books might be pricing in the big names, giving them inflated odds even though fatigue and wear and tear are setting in.
Why Pitching Means More Than Hitting
So why do big arms mean more than big bats in October?
Batting lineups can only cover so many flaws. They still rely on getting multiple players on base in the same inning. This means there are more weak links. But pitching controls the tempo and fortunes of every at-bat. It’s basic math too: the very best hitters are only successful between 3 and 4 times out of every 10 plate appearances. That gives pitching a built-in edge 6 or 7 times out those same 10 at-bats.
In the World Series and throughout the MLB Playoffs the difference is even sharper. Where a manager might let a struggling pitcher work through a rough stretch in June or August, he doesn’t have that luxury in October. Pitchers have no leash, and fresh arms are waiting in the ‘pen.
The numbers back it up too. Deep rotations win the World Series more often than hot offenses. The 2018 Red Sox, 2019 Nationals, and 2020 Dodgers all had elite rotation depth and strong late-game relief.
October Edges: How Bettors Find Value
You can spot the obvious advantage in this year’s World Series – the Dodgers have deep starting pitching. Their starting ERA is well under 2 runs per game and they’ve taken on 70% of the workload for their entire pitching staff.
Not only are those starters dominating, but this also gives them a fresher bullpen heading into the World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
If you can’t find the edge with that strong rotation, look for other areas to get in during the Series – this year or for any other season to come.
- Look for a team’s #4 starter and find out if they’ve been pressed in Games 6 or 7 during the ALCS or NLCS. Since they could be fatigued, the name on their jersey might carry shorter odds than it should. And the underdog might pounce.
- If one or more starters have been logging middle or late relief in October, it means the manager isn’t trusting his bullpen. The rotation is thin. This increases pressure and workload on the starters, and it also means there could be some value in World Series live betting. Look for late-inning runs and Overs in lines that haven’t adjusted quickly enough.
- First 5 Innings prop bets like strikeouts could favor higher numbers if top starters are coming in rested. The Dodgers swept the Brewers this year, while the Jays had to sweat it through Game 7 of the ALCS. Blue Jays’ bats might be quiet early on.
The lesson for smart bettors? Put most of your research time and money into pitching matchups and avoid the hitting headlines that the public is chasing.