MLB Playoffs and World Series lines are heavy on the brand names.
Invariably, you’ll see the big names favored by more than they should be, while smaller market squads get short-changed.
Public betting piles the cash on the big dogs, which gives sharps and Lucky Rebel baseball bettors a sweeter payday when the underdogs come through.
Pitching and coaching rule the playoffs, and the format of the games themselves helps to level the playing field. As always, we emphasize homework over hype.
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The Public Over-bets Names, Not Matchups
Fan bias can drive lines for big brand name teams.
That’s a fact in any sport, and it ramps up in the MLB playoffs.
Every year, the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and a handful of other teams dominate the headlines and the storylines.
These big-market crews have the payroll to bring in the league’s best every year, not to mention the franchise narrative going back decades.
But the truth is, the lines are often pretty bad.
Stories matter for Marvel movies, not Lucky Rebel players who want to bet on postseason baseball in October.
Sportsbooks help the hype by piling on to shade the lines if a big-name team is a favorite. A -150 moneyline can become -170 or more against a smaller market team that is equally talented.
Overpriced favorites are bad value for the casual bettor. For the Lucky Rebel bettor, we know it’s not your first rodeo though.
You dig deeper, knowing that MLB playoff season is a different beast compared to the regular season.
Rest days come sooner for pitchers in the postseason.
Then there’s the rotation itself. An underdog with stellar pitching, say with two aces versus just one on the favorite’s side, is likely to get at least two outings from those hurlers. The favorite might see their ace twice, but that could mean he’s being rushed into action on shorter rest.
Coaching matters in the playoffs in a big way too.
Late-game decisions can turn games completely around. And there’s a good chance that the ‘dog has a stronger manager, look what it took to get them into the playoffs in the first place.
The smaller market teams are typically outspent by 3x-4x more every season. (Last season, the Tigers beat the Astros in the Wild Card round. The Tigers payroll was $133M smaller than the Astros’).
This means smaller payroll managers need to be craftier because they can’t rely just on star power and raw talent.
Come playoff time, that means they know how to operate and make a bunch of different shifts every game. The big market manager might not have that muscle trained.
Sharps look at these factors, not just the logos and some shiny regular season home run stats.
Pitching Dominates in October
Playoff baseball is a sprint compared to the marathon of the regular season.
Compare sprinters to marathon runners. Totally different build, right?
Same for sustaining success in the playoffs, for bettors and for the teams playing the games.
Pitching is king in October baseball, and there are a handful of factors that sharps consider when making their postseason picks:
Bullpen Depth: There are rest days typically after Game 2 and Game 5 in the playoffs. It’s a different rhythm than the regular season, where a 3- or 4-game series is all played on back-to-back days. This means playoff managers can throw fresh arms more often at opposing lineups, for middle relief or closing, and it levels the playing field for the underdog.
Ace-heavy Rotations: Because of the bigger bullpen reliance, an underdog can throw its ace (or aces) at a team twice in a 5-game series or even for short stints on back-to-back dates if needed. This throws off the big team’s hitters and brings more balance to the equation.
Matchups Matter: Again, because pitching is a priority and rest is coming sooner, a crafty manager can optimize his pitchers against key parts of the favorite’s lineup. This could mean brining in a lefty for even just one batter, in order to get a more favorable matchup. Neutralizes the edge that you’d normally give to a much stronger favorite in the regular season. All this is what makes sharps factor in pitching quality and pitching depth above pretty much everything else in the MLB playoffs.
Lucky Rebel players can find the edge in underdogs and Unders, where the average fan who only gets into MLB betting come playoff time is focused too much on the headlines.
Historical Trends Show the Sharp Side Wins
Until they lost in the World Series in 2023 to the Texas Rangers, the Arizona Diamondbacks were a playoff cash machine for sharps picking the underdogs. They started the Wild Card round at +150 to Milwaukee’s -150.
Then they hit the NLDS against the Dodgers – a textbook brand name team. LA was a -210 favorite, the Dbacks at +175.
Think the Sportsbooks or the betting public caught on after that series? We know you know the answer.
Philly was next up in the NLCS at -170, and Arizona at +145. Another big brand name went down.
Other stats also make the case for the ‘dogs in MLB odds when it comes to the postseason.
Since 2018, playoff underdogs have gone 39-30 straight up. This makes for a 13.5% ROI for bettors who hit underdogs of +120 or more on their bet slips.
Wild Card is an especially good round to go against the favorites. Since 2018, underdogs in the opening round of the MLB playoffs listed between -110 and +160 have generated an ROI of over 22%.
Playoffs Can Mean Payoffs
You’ll pay a premium if you automatically map the MLB teams’ regular season performances onto their upcoming playoff games.
It’s a different ballgame in the playoffs.
The deepest, healthiest bullpens, ideally with an ace or two that are also in good shape, usually win the series.
October baseball, like the best managers, don’t care about what happened over the last 162.
Big bats bring the noise and the headlines, but pitching is what pays the bills.