Betting Into the Turn. The regression is real.
That pullback that we saw in Week 2 continues full force in Week 3 of the MLB season.
The rhythm and sway of the longest season in pro sports starts to emerge. Sure, great teams and hotter-than-they-should-be teams can still carry Week 2 to a 12-2, 11-3 record.
But long term, we know that .800+ winning percentages aren’t sustainable. Early season surprises need to be sniffed out now, and paydays can happen when you spot them.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Pitchers Start to Settle In – or Fall Off
Pitchers start to show their real selves by the third week of the MLB season.
Super stingy ERAs of around 2.00 or the continual serving up of fat ones on the way to 6.00 or more? They start to normalize.
The lower-end ERAs climb by 1 or 1.5 runs by the end of April. That tells you that O/U totals will go up week by week, but the listed lines can lag before the books adjust.
Lucky Rebel players can spot this and hit the turning point in Week 3.
Higher-end ERAs inflated by low strand rates also come down. Fielders have sharpened up and bad bounces even out. And pitchers have sorted themselves out through pitching coaches and game tape.
Velocity can tail off too. This can make a difference between getting that inning-ending K at a crucial moment or giving up that 2-run dinger.
Pitchers’ arms are getting more work in real game situations, which can affect fatigue and confidence. By extension, that means velocity.
At the same time, some pitchers can begin to settle in now. Confidence and a rust-free arm can produce great things.
Need more? Lucky Rebel players can find endless numbers to crunch nowadays. Baseball’s always been a stat-lovers dream, and in recent years the number of available stats has gone parabolic.
More numbers can include things like strike zone analytics.
Command of the zone starts to emerge by Week 3. Batters are sharpening their skills at the same rate though.
Sharps can look at first-strike percentages and walk rates to see who’s getting the edge on hitters more frequently. Pitchers that might have been lucky to dodge a few walks or get couple more K’s per game because the hitters were still warming up in Weeks 1 and 2 now have to earn those outs and keep players off base.
Bats Wake Up or Disappear
Ok, enough pitcher talk.
Home run derbies and .400 batting averages put butts in seats.
By Week 3, some hitters have cooled off while others are just now finding their stroke.
They’ve studied more tape of opposing pitchers. Batting coaches have tweaked their players’ swings. At the MLB level, a small change in the wrists or hips is all it takes.
A batter’s timing returns after a couple of weeks of sorting out their swing. Whatever spring training failed to accomplish, Weeks 1 and 2 helped fill the gaps. Then Week 3 comes along and now they’re getting into a groove.
As for those hitters who have started to cool in Week 3, it marks the beginning of a regression to the mean from a player’s unsustainable .475 average to the real .280.
A player’s early power surge can cool off fast. Pitchers have adjusted. Word has gotten around the league that even though Player X is crushing it, he can’t hit a certain pitch to save his life. Surprises are no longer surprises by Week 3.
For the stats heads looking for an edge, check out BABIP – Batting Average on Balls in Play. Lucky Rebel players probably know BABIP already.
For the uninitiated, it means those hits where the defense has a shot to make a play on the ball. Not laser doubles off the wall or home runs, but grounders and bloops singles. A higher BABIP for a player could mean they’re getting lucky contact or slower defensive reactions. A defender needs warming up for a few weeks. That means the same contact that turned into a single in the first couple weeks becomes an out in Week 3.
Players stroking a .400 BABIP in the early weeks might be due for a dip by Week 3. Fewer team runs show up on the scoresheet as a result.
This all impacts team totals. One or two runs less per game could mean you hit the Under before the books have caught up.
On the flip side, a team with lower totals in the early going might have some breakout games in Week 3. That’s when taking the Over is your edge.
Betting Into the Turn
Now’s the time to flip some of your positions. You’re not getting attached to any of them, right?
Regression can put you in profit before the casual bettors and the MLB sportsbooks have caught up.
The books catch up fast though, so make some key moves early to stay a step ahead.
Now’s the time to let the numbers lead. This season’s numbers, not last year’s like some average bettors are still doing.
Key questions help you spot the ideal time to flip. If an unexpected team is winning at a .650+ clip, check their one-run wins. More than normal means their luck is about to run out.
Same with a surprisingly disappointing squad. If they’re at .500 or worse and they’ve been on the wrong side of too many of those close games, but they’re otherwise healthy and loaded, jump in.
Spotting the turn also involves harder numbers. Surface stats like W-L record, ERA and batting average don’t tell the whole story.
Underlying stats, the ones that the casuals don’t even sniff, like FIP and Expected Weight On-Base Average (xwOBA), are worth a look.
xwOBA measures quality of contact. If a player’s xwOBA is much higher than their actual OBA, you can expect their luck to turn for the better soon. And totals go up.
Ride the Regression
The MLB season still has a long way to go, but things are starting to even out by Week 3.
This means a greater trust in the numbers we see before our eyes, not the noise we hear.
Making your bets before the books and hype machines have a chance to adjust to real performances is the path to payday.