By all means, grab some peanuts and crackerjacks. But make sure your World Series bets are all business.
Betting on the World Series is like proper investment work. Research, strategy, having an eye for value.
Getting in and out of positions, supply and demand: like a market.
And we’ll stick with what we’ve always preached when the market is making too much noise: there’s real value in being the contrarian.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Forget the “Team of Destiny” – Follow the Line Movement
From the time the first pitch was thrown on MLB season’s Opening Day, we’ve been getting fed storylines all season long.
It reaches its peak leading up to the World Series and continues with every swing in momentum, until the final out.
But you haven’t chased storylines all season. And you don’t plan on starting now, even though the mainstream World Series narratives are pumping out 24/7.
Team of destiny. Cinderella story. Momentum. Forget about all of that. Narratives fail casual bettors because it means they’re chasing yesterday’s news. Any value has been priced in by the Sportsbooks.
The closing line value (CLV) is the only storyline to follow. It’s the long term edge that puts cash in your account.
How do you maximize that CLV? We’ll admit it – it’s not easy.
The market is being moved by finely tuned models working the books, along with big-time sharps.
But watching the opening line and its movement like a hawk can still score you that money-making CLV.
If the line starts moving early, and you move with it, odds are you’re getting better odds than Rick from Accounting as he brags about the bets he made just a couple hours before the first pitch of the Series.
We know you might be one of those sharps moving the line.
If not, at the very least, you should follow the sharp money early in World Series.
Check the news – a key injury, for example, could be the catalyst more than the sharp money – to make sure you’re not making a knee-jerk reaction.
But then, don’t sit on the sidelines. Value dries up fast this week, and a lot of bettors end up paying a premium.
Key Metrics That Predict Series Winners
Live arms win games.
This is especially true in the World Series. After a tough Wild Card, Division Series and Championship Series, some bullpens come limping into the Fall Classic.
The stronger ‘pens, with guys who are rested and were clocked at 95+ in the ALCS or NLCS, and who can rely on more than just a single fireballing closer, have the edge.
If both teams are close in terms of bullpen depth, look for which manager used more relievers in the playoffs. If they leveraged their entire pen, odds are their arms are fresher.
Of course, we’re not done with pitching analysis. It’s that important in the playoffs.
Starting pitcher rest is another metric to watch when you place your Lucky Rebel bets.
You want to fade teams whose aces are coming off a 7-game slog with minimal rest. Just like you want to lean in on teams with a top starter ready to go on normal rest for games 1, 4, and possibly 7.
Anything outside of that should raise questions. Stats show that shorter rest (three days’ rest vs. four days) for top starters can tack another 0.53-0.81 runs onto their ERA.
They lose command, velocity, and put more runners on base.
Notice we didn’t talk about hitting? Mainstream attention is mostly on the sluggers and the guy hitting at a .400 postseason clip.
But we know how much pitching and deep bullpens can put a stop to all that.
Don’t fade all hitting of course. A stacked batting lineup with a proven record of coming through in the clutch is still worth it, especially if the odds are providing value.
Sharp Angles That Still Work in the Fall Classic
Beyond the sharp money and line movement and past the pitching analysis, there are more World Series bets to make.
We did the homework and noticed some patterns.
Game 3 home underdogs in the World Series represent good value. Especially if it’s a 1-1 series or the favorites are up 2-0 and the public money is flowing their way.
The home crowd, fresh pitching after a day off, and a hint of desperation seem to focus the home ‘dogs.
Zig-zag series strategy is another way to play it. By betting against the previous game’s winner, you’re taking the Lucky Rebel contrarian approach, watching narrative and momentum talk flow to the winner, resulting in inflated lines.
It’s not something we’re betting the farm on. But in an evenly matched series it can provide an edge.
Games 4-7 Overs. As the series goes longer, things get nuttier. Markets have a tendency to still hang onto regular season patterns, but the World Series throws those out the window.
That’s where Lucky Rebel players get their edge.
Aces come on in relief on a day’s rest. Bullpens thin out, through performance issues, fatigue, injury. Pinch hitters come in for players that are having a solid series, just for an edge against a particular pitcher.
Overall, it’s about high-risk moves on both sides as desperation sets in. This can lead to those 6-run, bottom of the eighth explosions (or implosions, if you’ve got the pitching side).
Just last season, Games 4 and 5 between the Dodgers and Yankees saw totals of 15 and 13 runs respectively. Besides 2022, each year since 2020 has had at least one game from Game 4-onwards going well into double digits.
Pull out All the Stops for the World Series
The books have got it dialed in by now, so that edge is going to have to be hard-earned.
Stay objective. Even the best of us get caught up in the hype.
That objectivity keeps you focused on the closing line value, watching the World Series lines closely and moving with the smart money.
It also keeps you clear-headed for the right Series strategy so you can walk-off with plenty of cash.