Separating Star Power from Spread Impact in NBA Preseason
Don’t bet on big names until the real action starts.
That’s the number one tip for NBA preseason betting. There are a number of reasons for it, but in a league that invented and perfected load management (and we don’t like that term any more than you do), you know preseason will put even more players on the bench or on autopilot.
Minutes restrictions. Rotation experimentation. Coaches with an agenda that will be way different from the one that stacks regular season wins. They’re all part of fading the stars before the season starts.
Star Minutes: It’s All About Limits and Looks
It’s the same story across every sport before the start of the regular season: people are starving for the real games again. Summer brings some action, sure. But there’s only so many second-tier sports you can get into before you start craving the big plays from A-listers in leagues like the NBA.
Since late June, NBA betting fans have had to wait. By early October, weeks before the real deal starts up again, they’re ready for any NBA bets. And while it’s tempting to click the bet slips as soon as you see Ant, LeBron, Luka, SGA and Steph in their warmups, you need to step back.
Truth is, top-line players rarely see extended floor time before opening night. The average starter logs just about 22–25 minutes per preseason game – and that range is at the high end.
The average annual NBA salary is a cool $11.91 million this season. With crazy payrolls, teams playing preseason games just can’t afford a vet going down to a twisted ankle or shoulder injury while playing the Nets’ G-leaguers on a Tuesday night. It’s all about minimizing veteran risk.
As salaries have gone up every year, risk tolerance has gone down. Over the past six seasons, teams have decreased starters’ preseason minutes by more than 10%.
This gets even more pronounced as the regular season opening tip gets closer too. By the third week of October, while the final cuts are being made, the closest that players like Giannis or Jokic come to breaking a sweat is doing that day’s Wordle.
What does that matter for bettors? The smart money needs to throw out big names from the equation completely and dig deeper before betting on NBA preseason games. LeBron has less impact on the spread in the first week of October than some rookie you’ve never heard of. Bet accordingly.
Game Relevance: Context Over Clout
The NBA preseason is like a high school lab, minus the frogs. Lots of experimentation in a mostly controlled environment, but sometimes things go off the rails.
All that means NBA preseason bettors can’t just dive in and pick the strongest teams from the previous season or base their picks on which stars are in town.
Teams are working out new schemes so when opening night comes around they start off well. A 0-6 or 2-8 start to the 82-game season isn’t a death sentence, but it definitely isn’t optimal.
NBA coaches and GMs also need time and playing minutes to integrate rookies and bench players. Add in the star player rest mentioned above, either for an entire game or after the first half, and it makes for betting outcomes that go against some of your regular season instincts.
Where’s the value then? It can come in totals instead of moneyline or spread bets. Preseason totals usually run 10-15 points lower than regular season totals. This comes from a lack of top scoring talent on the floor for much of the preseason game, obviously. Players who aren’t NBA-ready are racking up the floor time and shooting bricks for a lot of those minutes.
The lack of set plays and defined roles also impacts the score. The power forward who thinks he’s a scoring center while the coach has him in mind for a defensive role is going to be in the wrong spot for much of the game.
So what’s the game context you need to find value? See who’s being paired up over recent games. A young point guard who’s finding his rhythm in the last few games with a pick-and-roll big man looking to stick with the team can add points to the totals. That helps you hit the over since the totals are set so much lower than usual. Market inefficiency is a sharp’s best friend.
Another context edge: find players who have a real shot at making the opening night roster. To start with, they’re going to get meaningful minutes. Coaches want a solid look at who might make a real difference in the regular season. Second, they’ll be playing at close to March Madness-level intensity. At $11 million per coming their way if they make it, plus the chance to fulfill a lifelong dream, they’re going to be putting everything on the line. Then there’s the fact they’ll be up against either lesser talent or seasoned vets who aren’t going to risk a hammy injury just to slow them down.
Coaching Strategies: Building Blocks, Not Results
NBA coaches have their own set of preseason priorities. Winning, making the playoffs, and job security all matter when it comes to the regular season. What they’re doing in the preseason is building towards all three, but it doesn’t impact the spread or the wins and losses in early October.
It’s why you’ll see stars play for a quarter or a half. And inside the game, they’ll use mass substitutions and full line changes. Stuff you would never see in the regular season. Both factors limit the ability for one or two brand name players to impact the score.
That drives home the message: don’t bet on NBA stars in the preseason. Sharps like to have an edge going into any action, and all the variables at play take away the edge in knowing the real strength of a team’s lineup. They leave the overvaluing of elite players to the casual bettors.
What does the smart money do to get the edge in preseason betting instead?
They don’t bet the jersey. They bet the situation.