History says the market gets drunk on hype. The value lives in the weird games no one’s watching.
Opening night of the NBA season is loud.
Every fan base is shouting that they’re contenders. Every analyst has bold predictions and months of built-up talking to let out.
The Sportsbooks though? They love the noise.
Because while the masses are betting the big brand names and players, the real value lives in the under-the-radar games no one’s watching.
We’ll check out why sharp bettors avoid the noise and go where the market is quiet. Early-season betting is less about who wins, and more about who’s not being watched.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
The Most Dangerous Night in Basketball
Opening night in the NBA. The marquee matchups are primed, reserved for the shiniest names in the sport.
Boston, LA Lakers, Golden State, and a handful of others still dominate the headlines.
OKC, Minnesota, Indiana and a couple more, meanwhile, deserve as much attention but they’re smaller market squads. In spite of Ant, SGA and Tyrese, they pull in less action early in the season.
Nah, it’s all about the TV spots and the media spotlight. Except the sharps don’t chase the spotlight on opening night in the NBA.
They know that heavy betting volume comes in, and the books are all over inflating the lines to grab more attention and more handle.
All this excitement clouds judgment. Noise disrupts focus. It’s a dangerous night for betting.
Lucky Rebel players? We’re the guys at the free throw line while the rest of the world are the ones under the net waving their hands.
But we just drain both shots and keep moving.
Big Names, Bad Bets — Opening Night ATS Trends
That late-game slot on the NBA’s Opening Night seems to have the Los Angeles Lakers carved in stone when they make the league schedule.
But it doesn’t matter who they have in the lineup since 2009. Kobe, Gasol, Odom, AD, LeBron… they are 3-12-1 in season openers ATS. Casual bettors – who no doubt pile in on LAL at the start of every season – must be getting hosed every year.
LeBron is in the GOAT conversation along with MJ, of course. But he’s a terrible bet ATS in Game 1 of every season, going 0-6 since he joined the club. The Chicago Bulls are another large market with a storied history. They also get plenty of pub leading up to the season, and definitely in terms of broadcast coverage. Chicago is the third-largest NBA market.
But their betting fans are probably out a few bucks. At least if they’re betting them to cover in the season openers each year.
The Bulls are 3-7 in season openers over the past 10 seasons.
The best teams? Often the smaller market squads who are operating away from the spotlight.
The Magic, Blazers, and Pacers are all in the 8-2 or 7-3 range.
Less shine for sure (although Indiana’s recent run to the NBA Finals could change that). Just results. The way Lucky Rebel players like it.
Sure, we can find some bigs doing well right out of the gate, like Boston, who’s 8-2 in their last 10 openers. But the value is gone as they’re a big draw every year, and there are better places to find the edge from Day 1.
Off-Market Matchups = Value
The off-Broadway (or off-Rodeo Drive) games, the off-market matchups, are the ones that deliver better than the Mailman did back in the day.
Sharps are the ones who dig deeper in NBA betting. They’ve done the work well before the weekend warrior fan swoops in a day before the opening tip and hammers all the favorites from big markets.
Putting money behind informed action on Wizards–Hornets on League Pass is probably smarter than chasing Lakers–Warriors at 8:00pm on ESPN because people heard LeBron had a great training camp and Steph has a sore toe. The list of things the smart money looks at is long.
They look at preseason usage combined with injury reports – especially lingering issues from the previous season or surgery in the summer.
Has a player who was expected to be in the starting 5 barely played any minutes in the last week of camp? Any news reports on the rehab of that shoulder of the 33-year-old vet?
Then it’s conditioning or usage. In an offseason with a big international tournament, even the young stars might be gassed coming out of the gate. Especially if it was after a deep playoff run.
Team chemistry – did the team lose a leader? Team composition – did the offseason signings fill real gaps? Or did James Harden show up and immediately gain weight? Cheap shot, we know.
But sharps look at it all. That’s how they find real value for the first games of the NBA season.
Case Study – Quiet Cover Kings
The Blazers and Raptors are two teams batting above 60% ATS in their season openers over the past decade. Neither team draws a nationally televised game until at least a few weeks into the NBA season. But both are often solid underdog plays for sharp money.
Doesn’t matter whether your +180 season opener comes from a big Sixers-Celtics tilt or if it comes from a Grizzlies-Jazz game buried in the middle of Salt Lake.
Pays the same.
Sharps look for value, not attention.
Fade the Noise, Follow the Numbers
The numbers point the way to opening night success.
Not just last year’s W-L or scoring champion, but the analytics kind of numbers that sharps can relate to.
Small market games have all the same data available as the flashy games do. So we look at pace, shot quality, possession efficiency, and mismatches on offense and defense.
All those figures can show where the gaps are. After all, the books themselves are barely out of preseason mode too.
They’re also relying on last season’s numbers. And they can sometimes add to the noise too, inflating the lines.
Sharps like it quiet.