The Overs spike, books adjust, sharps go under. This week is a masterclass in market correction.
Week 4 is when bettors get a little greedy. Or maybe just really confident.
Scoring is up, the pace is getting quicker, totals are rising — and the public floods the Overs.
But the sharps know better.
Because the books know better too. They are ramping up the totals too, front-running the betting public before they catch on.
Market corrections are useful and offer good value, but only if you’re ahead of the game.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
The Over Spike Sets the Trap
NBA players, fresh off a summer break and then training camp, often take a few weeks to find their shooting stroke.
Real game conditions stress-test the shooter in ways that a summer gym jacking 1,000 treys a day can’t match.
By Week 3, many are warming up and the total points scored go up. Even if the totals listed by the books haven’t raced ahead (yet), they are creeping up as well.
This spike in Overs that comes in Week 4 is a sign that bettors, the casual weekend warriors, are confident they’ve timed it right. But it’s a trap.
Sportsbooks know it too, and they’ve been slowly teasing the totals upwards before moving them in a real shift in Week 4, to catch all that public interest.
And when the public money pours in on one side, the Lucky Rebel move is to take a hard look at what’s available on the other side.
Average Points Per Game Peaked in Week 4
The league average PPG was 113.2 in Week 4, back in 2022-23. This was the highest PPG of the first 8 weeks of the season.
The same general trend hits every year around Week 4.
Casual bettors will see that and rush to capitalize.
Lucky Rebel players will see it and recognize that the Week 4 mark was a peak.
And on the other side of a peak is the decline. Or a valley. Whatever, you get the point.
If Week 4 scoring is the highest in the pre-Christmas part of the season, we suggest making some bets on the Unders. That’ll put more stuff under the tree.
Overs Hit at Higher in Weeks 2–3, Drop in Week 4
If NBA Overs hit at higher levels in Weeks 2-3 historically, this tells you that the books have caught up – or even got ahead of the game.
This traps average NBA betting fans. All they see is the Overs hitting and team’s offensive output ramping up in those earlier weeks.
By the time they’ve caught wind of the action and are ready to dive in, the books are one step ahead and adjust the totals higher.
Value vanishes.
Here’s how you make smart decisions and beat the trap in Week 4:
- Look for Overs movement: If you see lines jump 2-4 points off the openers, watch out. By the time a line moves that much it means the books are dialed in and value is nearly gone.
- Target the slowest teams: Bet the Under in games between low-pace matchups—especially if recent box scores are deceptively high because some team shot the lights out one night, or there were some OT games, where the score naturally bumps up by 10-15 points.
- Watch for regression: A few scoring explosions in Weeks 2 and 3 – by mid-level teams especially – almost always hit regression by Weeks 4 or 5. Teams scout and adjust. They learn how to press key players. Then scoring drops and Unders become profitable before the betting public clues in.
Ignore the hype: This is a Lucky Rebel go-to. Just because everyone’s leaning a certain way doesn’t mean there’s value left. Once everyone spots a trend, the edge is usually on the other side.
Sharp Totals Target Slow-Paced Matchups
Pace is a stat that the casual betting types haven’t really caught onto yet.
In case there are any Lucky Rebel NBA fans that aren’t on board, pace is a way to measure how fast teams play. It counts the number of possessions a team has in a standard 48-minute game.
The more a team rushes up court and takes a shot, the quicker they’ll get the ball back too. That’s a high pace team. Low pace teams use up more of the shot clock and have fewer possessions.
The Grizzlies, Bulls, and Hawks are the high pace teams of the moment. The Celtics, Magic and Timberwolves are low pace squads.
Smart money looks for bottom 10 pace-adjusted teams and hammer the Unders on them. It’s this week where the Overs are trendy and most people – including the books – are looking to capitalize on high-scoring teams.
Remember, the value in Overs is largely gone this week, in spite of what our eyes are telling us. Sure, the scoring might be high, but the sportsbooks have bumped up their totals to match.
Don’t Bet the Trend That Everyone’s Already Seen
We’ve made it pretty clear by now.
Those trends are priced into the lines, whether it’s the spreads or the totals.
That 145-point total game between the Celtics and some mid-level team was seen by everyone. They think that same mid team is going to keep rolling.
And they bet accordingly. Except that was still a Celtics team testing out its depth, maybe sitting a few players, and letting defense slide while the coaches used the game as a training camp test.
In the meantime, every other team got a good luck at the tapes and know exactly how to squeeze the smaller team.
The books did too. But they’re also anticipating more Overs coming in for Week 4, so those lines have been tweaked and shaded to perfection.
The smart money knows better.