Favorites coast. Dogs cover. Week 3 is built for anyone betting with their head, not their fanhood.
Look at the matchups on paper for NBA Week 3 and it all seems pretty straightforward.
The favorites, the hottest teams to start the season, are already 4-5 games ahead in the win column compared to the underdogs.
Those ‘dogs still have plenty of bite though. Some of them have had bad calls, too many close losses, or just cold shooting.
At the same time, the favorites are ready for a stumble by Week 3. Unbeaten or 2, 3-loss records are unsustainable, obviously.
Plus, they’ve got the time to rest some key players and try out some of their depth.
Sharp money and Lucky Rebel players are taking notes.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Week 3 = Complacency for Favorites
From October through mid-June, it’s a long season for the NBA’s top units.
Throw in some international tournaments and summer league action, and some players just get burnt out.
Makes sense that by Week 3 of the NBA regular season, some of the early leaders pace themselves. Complacency is another word for it. Record-wise, it’s also called regression.
Sharps don’t care what you call it. Or how much of it is understandable.
It gives them a chance to hit the underdogs before the books and the betting public adjust.
Dogs Cover More in Weeks 3–4
The numbers back it up. Week 3 is a ‘dog’s life.
Since 2018, ATS underdogs have beaten the spread 54% of the time in the third week of the NBA season.
There are a number of factors that contribute to the favorites’ coming down to earth a little. Regression happens. Top teams running records of 6-1 or 7-0 need to come back down to earth at some point, and Week 3 seems to be when gravity sets in.
We know that some of them will turn into the 2015 Warriors or 1995 Bulls, winning an insane number of games. (Pro tip: don’t bet against those kinds of teams).
But most normal top teams will take their foot off the gas a little in Week 3.
They might look like they’re on cruise control, but they’re also testing different rotations and resting their biggest stars late in games.
We hate “load management” too, ever since Coach Pop started using it as “DNP- Rest” in back-to-backs 15 years ago, and since Embiid and Kawhi’s handlers made it an actual term. But it is what it is.
The elite teams are also looking at player development by Week 3, seeing what they have on their bench. Playing the long game.
On the other side of the court, the underdogs don’t have these luxuries. They need every W they can get before getting into those final playoff spots. A loss in Week 3 counts the same as a loss in mid-April.
Result? Spreads are bigger than they should be, and smart money knows it.
Rebounding & Turnovers = Indicators of Undervalued Teams
Because there are some elite teams that will only lose 10, 15, 20 games all year, we don’t suggest blindly taking every ‘dog in Week 3. No value there.
Sharps will dig into some important stats to see which ones to take. Hustle stats are the key.
Rebounding: An underdog with a Top 10 glass game might just not be scoring enough this season yet, so that’s why they’re swimming around .500.
In Week 3, that’s the team that will win for you against a top unit.
They erase the obvious talent gaps by creating (or taking away) second-chance points and controlling the pace.
Those late-game boards on offense and defense will save points and help them beat the spread.
But we know some Lucky Rebel players like to go deeper into the metrics.
In this case, offensive rebounding ranking and percentage are where you want to look in particular. Those are the boards that keep the ball in your hands in the offensive zone and provide second- and third-chance scoring opportunities. Extra possessions late in the game against a team that’s pacing itself can cut a 10-point spread down to 4 in no time.
Turnovers: That ‘dog that has a high turnover differential in its first 3 weeks of play is likely better than their record indicates. They might have faced some tough opponents or hit a road trip too early.
Whatever it is, their hustle creates more TOs than they give up. You can also look at TOPG, turnovers per game, if you want just a raw comparison between them and the favorite.
Deeper cuts?
Try AST/TO. Assist-to-Turnover ratio. It’s a metric showing how often a team or player records an assist versus a turnover; higher is better. A common benchmark is at least a 2:1 ratio for quality teams.
An underdog close to that ratio, or at least better than or close to AST/TO of the favorite they’re facing, is worth a good look.
Case Study — Value Over Ego
The Charlotte Hornets are one of those perennial underdogs who can provide value.
Charlotte covered in two straight games last season in a ho-hum stretch of the schedule, beating favorites Detroit and Indiana (the Hornets lost SU but still covered).
The league is loaded with Charlottes by around Week 3, if you do some digging.
Sharps love the “boring” because this is where the hype and inflated lines die down. Now it’s all about your skill as a bettor to identify an edge.
More boring, less noise = easier to focus.
The Edge Is in the Grit
Forget load management. Forget guaranteed playoff spot some 70 games from now.
We’ll fade those top teams that are in cruise control in Week 3. That regression is bound to happen to the best of them. And we’ll be around come playoff time when it makes sense to evaluate them on talent, scoring, and defense.
In Week 3, we’ll take the underdogs who are grinding. Who are getting + odds that don’t reflect their real value yet.