There’s real value in lower-seeded teams away from the spotlight. Take notes.
The randomness that puts the madness into March Madness every year is what brings the fans back year after year.
But smart March Madness betting comes down to seeing through it and recognizing that big upsets aren’t accidental.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Upsets Happen—But Not by Accident
In March Madness, upsets happen every single year. And the same scene plays on repeat every year too.
The Tournament tips off on a Thursday, and by Friday or Monday morning, everyone in the office is laughing/crying about their bracket being busted. Usually at the hands of a 13 seed beating a #4 or a 12 beating a 5.
How it happens every year is a bit of a mystery to college basketball fans.
But seeding is not an exact science, and here’s the reality that only Lucky Rebel players and other sharps seem to know:
That 12th seed is from a basketball-strong mid-major – think Saint Mary’s or Ja Morant’s Murray State. And the #5 seed they just took down is a team with a basketball pedigree from a major conference that may not have the horses this year.
Major conference schools tend to be overweighted in terms of their higher seedings, while smaller schools are faded by the selection committee.
That’s fine for us though. On our way to deposit our winnings, we’ll act surprised when the “upset” happens.
Let’s be straight though. We don’t recommend breaking the bank on a 16 beating a 1 or a 15 surprising a 2. The 16’s have only done it twice in the past 10 years, and the 15th seeds have pulled off the upset only four times. That’s 5% and 10% over 40 total games for those big upsets.
But with each step closer between the seeds, the winning percentage goes up to 35%, a number that’s held steady since the Tournament started back in 1979.
With some basic research and knowing what to look for beyond the headlines, Lucky Rebel bettors might pick out those 35% winners fairly regularly.
Public Cinderella Bets Are Almost Always Overvalued
But we’re going to pump the brakes on going all-in on the mid-level underdogs for a minute.
Trendy ‘dogs get too much love from the media in the early rounds, especially after a big upset.
Casual bettors are like anyone – they love a good underdog story.
Lucky Rebel players know the storybook formula by now.
The winning team’s low seed number becomes part of the lore and the media has picked up their star guard who just dropped 30 on the #3 seed in the East.
“Team of destiny” and “Bracket buster” is added to the school’s name in all the headlines. Slap the “Cinderella” team label on them and everyone rushes to take them for the next round.
Then the public bets up the line and drives down the value as books look to protect themselves. By the time the opening tip comes for that third round game (where they meet reality by about 25 points), the casual betting fan is getting way worse odds than the sharps did at open.
It’s true we see a small school team making a great run every year, but we’ve rooted for them only through our laptops or TVs, not with our wallets.
The most profitable upsets happen in quieter corners of the brackets. Where social media and pre-game shows haven’t hyped up the ‘dogs nearly as much.
Where the Real Value Lives in the Bracket
Undervalued teams and overlooked efficiency.
With the firehose of publicity and analysis for March Madness every year, these are the metrics that the smart money looks for.
We won’t find a lot of value for most Duke, Kansas, or UConn matchups. They’re hyped and analyzed to the bone every year, just like most of the teams from the major conference.
Time to go mid.
Mid-majors like Saint Mary’s, VCU, Dominion and a handful of new arrivals into the Tournaments every year often outperform their seeding.
They’re usually sitting around the 11th or 12th seed. They often come from fly-over conferences like the Mountain West, Missouri Valley, and AAC.
And enough times to make it count financially, they deliver with an early round upset or two. What that looks like for your March Madness bets?
A lower seed with 30+ wins on the season gets a +130 or more, even though they’ve got a lineup full of returning Seniors hungry for their last taste of March Madness. For half of them, it’s their third or fourth trip to the round of 64.
And they’re facing a power conference team that has a freshman point guard getting his first taste of what real tournament pressure feels like. In prime time, no less.
On the efficiency side, look at the historical data.
Over the past 4 decades, the majority of 11’s, 12’s and 13’s that do damage in March Madness come from these mid-majors, and they’re in the Top 30 in adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency.
You’ll see these on basketball analytics sites with names like AdjO, AdjOE, AdjD and AdjDE. These adjust for opponents and pace. So you can tell if these teams have just been feasting on other mid teams or doing real damage.
PPP, Points per Possession, is another way to look at efficiency.
Same with basic free throw percentage. In a close game – and we all know buzzer beaters and drama hit every March – this can take an underdog that’s strong at the line past their brand name opponent.
All of these give the smart money some real data to work with. And you know the casual bettors and content creators aren’t shining a light on stats like this.
Experience Recognize Experience
Experienced teams also score points that aren’t reflected in analytics.
Experienced bettors know this.
Composure. Late-game coolness while everyone else is losing their heads. Veteran coaches.
In the pressure cooker of March Madness, that all adds up.
On top of all the numbers, sharps also look at rosters and past tournament experience to see if an underdog has good mileage.
And when they enter the madness, they know exactly what game they’re playing.