Truth vs. Trap: Debunking Common NBA Preseason Betting Beliefs
NBA preseason is underway, and the clips are already circulating like they do every year.
This year, it’s Wemby schooling players and LeBron in the layup line looking like a rec league player whose knees don’t work. We don’t trust the clips of course – LeBron is still a legend and he’s just coasting through his 300th preseason, while Wemby still needs plenty of seasoning.
People betting on the NBA preseason shouldn’t trust these clips, either, just like they shouldn’t buy into some popular myths that have drained bankrolls for years. They know they need to adjust their strategies to match the reality: it’s just exhibition basketball.
Myth 1: Starters Always Impact Preseason Outcomes
Casual betting fans who want to get in on the early October action can be excused for getting too excited. It’s been since June that we’ve all seen any meaningful NBA plays. The problem is they get trapped into older patterns before opening night. They believe starting lineups drive preseason results just like they do in the regular season.
They chase those social media clips and the latest news and pile into games where the lineup is nowhere near what it will look like in a month. LeBron’s lazy practices go viral, Giannis’ contract status and future with the underachieving Bucks bring attention to his motivation, and KD’s latest drama (whatever it is this season) can skew predictions.
The opposite also applies. Big brand names, without any recent highlights, are what draw the public money in NBA preseason games.
Truth is, starters rarely shift the actual preseason results, even if they do impact the lines. For starters, NBA coaches are super cautious in preseason. They’ll limit the A-listers to 10-15 minutes of court time, and much of those minutes are played at less than full speed. They’ll sit out entire games too. Coaches and players both don’t want to risk injury for a game that matters as much as Stephen A. Smith’s opinions.
Sharps look instead at the rest of the roster. They fade the stars and see the talent level that is hoping to make the team or get a big bump in usage for the upcoming season. As an example, in 2023, OKC newcomer Chet Holmgren logged way more minutes than established stars in preseason action.
He led the team in scoring and boards in their first preseason game. Jaylin Williams, a 2nd-year player, did the same for many of the other preseason games. Same with Josh Giddey, still trying to make a statement. All-stars like SGA? Barely saw any minutes in those games, and his name is nowhere on the stat sheet for preseason leaders.
Putting faith in starters, or fading them too hard because of the latest bad news, are losing preseason moves. Bench players and rotation experiments carry much more weight. The smart money keeps an ear to the ground, researching coaches’ stated intentions for an upcoming game and watching for developing players. Follow the team reporters to find value. You’ll catch mispriced odds in lineups and motivation. The Warriors coming to town might feed headlines and get casual money to pile in, but when they bench their starting 5 and the host team has 2-3 recent draft picks hoping to stick, we’re not going with Golden State.
Myth 2: Home Teams Dominate in Preseason
NBA home teams used to win in the regular season at close to a 60% clip. Some teams, like the 2024-25 Celtics, have hit the high 60’s at home. That’s dropped in recent years to 54%, league-wide, but even then you still have a solid edge when you factor in matchups and overall talent.
And it’s all still mostly meaningless when it comes to betting the NBA preseason.
A common trap with NBA preseason games has the casuals betting blindly on home teams, assuming they’ll match those regular season numbers. This means they overvalue the home court edge and pile into favorites hosting at home too.
The preseason reality is different. Coaches don’t care that much for the final result. They’ll juggle rotations and call plays that don’t look anything like a regular season game plan.
The road factor is also much less of an issue in the preseason. There’s no grind. Visiting teams aren’t coming through on the tail end of a 10-day road swing. Plus, the crowd impact you see in some arenas in November or April is minimal. Fans are there on a corporate dime and just want to pick up a souvenir, plus there are plenty of empty seats. No intimidation factor.
Preseason win rates are around 52%-48% for home teams vs.road teams. In 2020, it was even below 50% for the home units. The regular season win rates can hit double digits, even though in recent years it has decreased because the three-point shootouts have narrowed the home edge.
The smart money betting on the NBA preseason looks at the underdogs and skips the home/away bet completely. ‘Dogs at +200 or higher have delivered a 10.8% ATS ROI in seven of the last ten preseasons. Excellent value when you look at a normal ROI that usually ranges from 4%-10%. And anything above 5% is considered successful.
Myth 3: Favorites, Especially Playoff Teams, Are Safe Bets
A third NBA preseason myth is the playoff team safe bet.
Recency bias hits us all, but sharps know how to watch for it. In the NBA, the freshest memory most of us have is of last May/June, when only a handful of top teams were left to fight it out for a spot in the NBA Finals. Top teams and players dominated the headlines for weeks, so it makes sense to lean their way when preseason tips off.
Cue needle scratch. That would be a mistake.
Forget the superior talent and established rosters. Those teams are all about preservation in the preseason.
Since 2005, betting preseason underdogs against playoff teams has yielded a 53.5% ATS win rate. Large ‘dogs, those with spreads over three points, do even better. They’ve posted a 56.5% ATS mark since 2005 when facing an opponent that reached the postseason the year prior.
Fade the teams with no incentive to play their starters or go all out in the preseason. They’re saving their fuel for when it counts, just like the smart money does.