Betting the Bench? Coaches Who Treat Preseason Like the Regular Season
Preseason is weird. Betting it can get even weirder.
Every sport has its own approach to playing key players, experimenting with player combinations and the playbook, and getting the team ready for opening night.
The NBA has its own mix of teams and coaches that go hard or treat the preseason like a G-league scrimmage.
Old-School Approach: NBA Coaches Who Play to Win
Some coaches use the NBA preseason to send a message to the locker room and the front office: this upcoming season is all business. They play to win, from the first tip in late September right to the final cuts before the NBA regular season starts for real.
Knowing those coaches can give you the smart money the edge in NBA preseason betting.
Certain NBA coaches are notorious for approaching preseason games much like the regular season. The New York Knicks’ Tom Thibodeau prioritized game reps and accountability, using the preseason not as streetball but as a proving ground. He led the Knicks to over-achieve the last couple of seasons, with back-to-back 50 win years and deep runs into the NBA playoffs. (We won’t talk about his huge risk-taking in last year’s playoffs that got him canned. We’re talking preseason here).
Over the past decade, Thibs’ teams (Bulls, Wolves, Knicks) have led the NBA in average preseason starter minutes, with starters racking up close to 26 minutes per game – way above league average. Load management has hit most of the league in recent years, but some coaches aren’t buying into the trend.
They figure team chemistry is important to establish as early as possible. When starters play moderate to heavy minutes, that’s more reps. More shots. More knowing where teammates are playing and where they’re going to end up off the ball.
These coaches also want to start fast out of the gate. A win in October counts just the same as a win in late April. Watch for teams led by coaches like Rick Carlisle and Steve Kerr to grab a potential edge in an NBA preseason line. Tough to argue with their track records too. Like Thibs, they figure the injury risk is manageable and the upside of getting the A-listers ready by opening night is worth it. And when Tyrese or Steph has spent the offseason adding a new shot to their arsenal, it’s worth giving them as many shots as possible in the preseason.
Experimenters and Evaluators: Coaches Who Embrace the Test Lab
As much as some A-list coaches go hard in the preseason, you have coaches who are likely to rest their starters.
This impacts the NBA preseason odds and also give the sharps an edge.
While the lines aren’t quite as simple as old-school vs.new-school, it’s pretty close. Younger coaches that have come up through systems with more advanced metrics – think Moneyball for hoops – are more likely to let their starters ride the pine. This gives the coach a chance to experiment with player combinations and see who’s got a game that’s NBA-ready, and who needs more seasoning.
Taylor Jenkins, ex-head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies, talked about looking at pace and execution metrics. He used the preseason games to build out the playbook and test non-starters. (We’ll leave it to the NBA fans to decide how that worked out for Jenkins).
The smart money betting on NBA preseason games will also look at new coaches or ones that are going through a re-build when filling out their bet slips. Mike Brown, new coach of the Knicks, is coming in as the anti-Thibodeau here. Jordi Fernandez of the Nets is another one. Coaches who are into testing deeper rotations in the preseason should be bet on with caution. Check the matchup closely, including which players have been getting more preseason minutes and which ones are barely seeing the court. Teams in a transition phase have to roll out multiple different units in early October just to see what they’ve got and who’s working well together. Coaches like Kerr above, who built a dynasty around a core of players like Draymond, Steph, and Klay, have the luxury of needing to see way less before opening night.
One contrarian play: Players who are gunning for the sixth man spot or even just a seat on the bench for the regular season on these less established teams are also what the sharps need to look for before betting. If a team has multiple roster spots up for grabs, these unproven players are likely going to be grinding for the full 48. That could mean a closer game than the spread calls for, or even a W against an established core of vets who want shots and reps without necessarily crashing the boards or driving the lane late in a meaningless (for them) game.
Do Preseason Wins Matter?
Technically, no. Not at all.
A team can shoot off the backboard in September and October and still do well. Both the Suns and Bucks were winless in the 2020-21 preseason but went on to play each other in the NBA Finals, as just one example.
But preseason games can also set a tone.
With all the media scrutiny and short shelf life for a lot of NBA coaches, they need to send a message to fans and to the front office. If it looks like they’re coasting in the preseason, that rep might stay with them all year. Grabbing early victories or having new players stand out can matter. Momentum and buzz – especially for high-profile teams like the Lakers and their newer, unproven coach like JJ Redick a few seasons back – can matter. Redick had to face a high-pressure environment early in camp with questions about his limited track record and his ability to handle LeBron.
Teams also don’t want the stink of mediocrity to waft into the regular season with a team that’s getting blown out every game before the season even starts.
Sharps will find a balance and the best betting edge when they weigh a coaches’ preseason tendencies with a team’s roster needs.