Playoff Spots are Still up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) @ Denver Broncos (-178)
The Broncos come into the Jacksonville-Denver game as the only AFC team that has officially clinched a playoff spot.
But as one of the teams with the biggest home field advantage (cold, altitude), you know they’re going all-out to secure first overall by the end of the NFL regular season.
The Jags? They’re a virtual playoff lock at 99% probability, but they also would like teams to come to Florida for a game that would be anything but a holiday.
This matchup gives Denver the slight edge simply because Denver is a long way from FLA. Both teams are on a roll. The Jags are 5-0 in their last five games and the Broncos are even hotter, riding an 11-game win streak. Both teams have strong enough defenses to support their hot QB play, and both have something to play for.
So where does all this parity help the smart money find an edge?
Look under the hood at Denver and you see a team that might be using too much smoke and mirrors. Their margin of victory over those 11 games is a touchdown or less. That includes an OT win over Washington, a 10-7 snoozefest over the Raiders, and an even worse 13-11 win over the Jets. Not the most confidence-inspiring list.
They did gut out a tough 34-26 win over the Packers last weekend, but that comes with an asterisk as Micah Parsons wasn’t on the field, along with a number of other top GB starters.
The Jags also have some sad teams on their win list, but at least they won those games convincingly. Trevor Lawrence is looking like a player who is finally fulfilling his promise. His TD-INT ratio is 13-4 in the past 5 games, and a hot QB can take a team far. The Jaguars are also 5-0 ATS in those wins.
This is a tough game to call, but the Jaguars seem to have a more rounded team that might just be taking the leap to the higher levels of the NFL at the right time.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
New England Patriots (+137) @ Baltimore Ravens (-168)
Another game with big playoff implications, the Patriots-Ravens game on Sunday Night Football will go a long way to determining each team’s postseason fate.
The Pats are essentially in the playoffs already, but they want that security of home field advantage. The Ravens, left for dead a few weeks ago, can still win the AFC North with three straight wins and some luck.
While Lamar Jackson’s return to the lineup hasn’t been amazing, it is time for Derrick Henry to step up. The Pats’ D gave up close to 170 yards rushing last weekend to Buffalo, so Baltimore should be giving Henry 20+ carries. Hit those Henry props if you like New England to be exposed on the ground again.
NE’s QB Drake Maye is still looking like an MVP candidate, although he did show some second-year jitters in that Bills game. Could the Ravens’ crowd get to him? Possibly. But either way, don’t expect him to hit any passing props this week. New England is already 7th in the NFL in using running plays, and TreVeyon Henderson is looking more and more like an elite RB every weekend.
Another tough call with lots on the line here. Both teams will be tight, and it’s your call whether the vet Jackson can handle the playoff-like pressure better than the young Maye.
Los Angeles Chargers (+114) @ Dallas Cowboys (-138)
A letdown, let’s-hit-the-golf-course game for the Cowboys? Or too much talent and pride to lose a fourth straight game?
Either way, the Chargers-Cowboys game should be a shootout.
Playoff-wise, Los Angeles has a lot more to play for in this one. Win and they’re in.
Both teams have notched consecutive wins over the Chiefs and Eagles this season, for what that’s worth. Shows they can hang with anyone. Or does it?
The Cowboys’ defense really can’t hang with many teams. They’re 31st in the NFL in points allowed. That means they need almost flawless offense every game just to keep up. And Tuli Tuipulotu and the rest of the Chargers’ D are going to make sure they create some mistakes for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Also, watch for the Unders when it comes to Pickens’ props. He’s a notoriously moody player, and if he thinks it’s all over, he could check out early.
Green Bay Packers (-112) @ Chicago Bears (-108)
This NFC North classic rivalry between the Packers and Bears should be a dogfight, but Green Bay is limping into it.
Injuries are the story here. With a mostly healthy Bears team at home facing a Packers’ squad that has lost Christian Watson, Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft and up to five starters in total, it looks like the point spread favoring GB might be slightly off.
Some might like Green Bay’s edge at QB, with Jordan Love more seasoned in high-pressure games than Caleb Williams. But the X factor here comes with some drama on the sidelines.
Bears’ coach Ben Johnson and Packers’ coach Matt LaFleur intensely dislike each other. Could that rivalry cloud some late-game decisions? Who’s the better coach in your mind? That could make the difference more than anything that happens on the field.
If you’re a momentum and vibes bettor, Green Bay does have the edge though. They are 10-0 against Chicago in their last 10 at Soldier Field when they’re the road favorites, and 8-2 ATS in that same span. Some teams just get into other teams’ heads. But Williams is getting stronger almost every week – he’s beaten tough defenses like Philly’s and Cleveland’s in recent weeks – and Love is no Aaron Rodgers, who accounted for many of those wins.
With an emerging Williams, a savvy coach, and so many injuries for Green Bay, it could be time for the Bears to break the streak.
San Francisco 49ers (-285) @ Indianapolis Colts (+225)
A Monday Night Football game with playoff implications is on the NFL schedule as the 49ers play the Colts in Indy.
Even though the Niners look set to play in January, neither team has clinched a playoff spot yet, so it’ll be an all-out battle.
The question is: Can the Colts enter that battle with a 44-year-old general? A QB who just came out of 5 years’ retirement?
Philip Rivers actually played a decent game last week against a tough Seattle defense, almost helping the Colts to a win before a last-second score by the Seahawks. Another week of practice could make a difference. Playing at home in a weather-controlled environment could help the old dog put up some bigger numbers.
The X factor here is the Niners’ shaky run D against elite Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor. Count on Taylor for Over props on carries and yardage as the Colts’ lean heavily on him. San Francisco allowed close to 5 yards per carry to Tennessee in the first half last week, a trend that has hit them hard down the stretch.
Motivation is another issue. The Colts were the NFL’s best team for the first 8-10 weeks of the year. They’re not going to want to let go of what could have been a huge season.