The biggest fight in years is almost here.
The Terence Crawford and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez fight goes Saturday, September 13th.
There’s so much at stake that it could be one of the all-time boxing matches.
For starters, Canelo is putting his 4 super middleweight belts on the line: WBO, WBA, IBF and WBC. The guy has achieved it all in boxing. But belts still matter.
Then there’s hype, pressure and overall live boxing attendance. We’re talking 65,000 people attending the fight, with many millions more watching at home.
And it’s all about legacy too.
Crawford is still undefeated in his career at 41-0. But that massive win total comes with the silent asterisk on most people’s minds. He hasn’t fought anyone, they’ll say. This one fight could be his ticket to complete respect.
Canelo, on the other hand, has been through the trenches. Mayweather, Cotto, and Triple G are just some of the elite fighters he’s fought in his boxing career.
No matter who you like, there are hundreds of ways to play the Canelo-Crawford odds. We’ll give you a look at some of the most interesting ones…
Canelo (-193) vs Crawford (+158)
We’re a little surprised to see a fighter who’s undefeated be the underdog here.
But the experts and oddsmakers are discounting Crawford because of two main areas: the quality of his opponents on the way to 41-0, and his need to move up two weight classes to meet Alvarez.
That weight one is a big one for smart money to consider.
Their average weight over the last 5 fights almost deserves a double-take. Canelo has averaged 167 lbs, while Crawford is at close to 148 lbs. That’s 19 pounds difference. (We did the math for you). In boxing terms, Canelo is at a much more natural weight than Crawford, and there are advantages in fighting comfortably. You know your limits, power-wise and endurance-wise. Crawford going up two weight classes is like him driving a new car, versus Canelo stepping into the same ride he’s had for years.
How could Crawford win? If you like reach as a major factor, he’s the guy. Crawford has almost 2 more inches of reach compared to Alvarez.
Then there’s mileage. Most of the boxing betting public would be surprised to know that Crawford is actually two years older than Canelo. With 67 fights for Canelo, compared to 41 for Crawford, it’s clear the Mexican has more wear and tear on his body. He fought his first pro fight at just 15 years old.
Alvarez has more than double the number of rounds boxed in his career. That’s 520 rounds to Crawford’s 245. Harder rounds too, given the opponent quality in Canelo’s history.
Canelo’s punching power has diminished with that mileage. His last 5 fights, while all wins, were unanimous decisions. No KOs, no TKOs. Even though has 39 knockouts in his career. That tells us he doesn’t have the same pop he did at his peak.
Intangibles matter in boxing, especially when the early rounds strip away the tactics and instincts kick in. Listen to any boxing analysts and they’ll tell you that Crawford is the one to beat. He even seems to like to brawl when he doesn’t need to, when he has the fight well in hand. That could work for him and against him. For: his intensity could just wear out Canelo in the later rounds if it’s close. More punches thrown and landed could equal more points on the judges’ scorecards.
Against: This isn’t Alvarez’s first rodeo. It’s his 67th. He might just absorb Crawford’s brawling and then pick his spot to counter.
Canelo vs Crawford Round Props
Over their careers, both fighters tip towards the middle rounds for fight distance. Alvarez has averaged 7.8, and Crawford just 5.9.
But over their last 5 fights, Canelo’s average rounds per fight has jumped considerably. He’s pulling 12 rounds per, going the distance every time. That could signal a big drop in KO power. But it also could mean discipline and endurance have been playing a bigger role. Crawford’s average has gone up, but only to 8 rounds per fight.
All the round Unders offer + odds, with +300 being the lowest at Under 10.5. So it’s clear the oddsmakers are counting on a long fight and no KOs.
The fight’s odds are close enough that smart money might fade picking the winner completely, opting for different bet types like picking the round the fight will end. Right now, the odds of it going the full 12 rounds – as in someone scoring a 12th-round KO or TKO – are at +2000. Solid payout if you think either fighter will save a little something for a big finish.
The overwhelming pick is to have it go the distance and come to a decision. At -335 right now, it’s the safest play. For such a massive fight with so much on the line, we’re tempted to say both boxers will play it safe.
But. Always a but in boxing. Both have been killers with 70 KOs to their names, combined. Adrenaline, legacy and reputation could drive a KO in pretty much any round, even if each fighter’s best punching power is in the past.
To pick either fighter to win, with the fight not going the distance, you’re looking at a solid +240 currently.
How Will Canelo vs Crawford End?
You’ve got tons of betting options for the Canelo-Crawford end result.
Taking Alvarez to win by decision or technical decision pays +120 currently. Taking Crawford by decision or technical decision pays +225.
Fence-sitters will be rewarded with +1400 if they think the fight will end in a tie.
If you’re looking for a mid-round win, you can play a range of rounds that closely match each fighter’s averages over their last 5 fights.
That means taking Canelo to win between rounds 9-12 at +800. Solid value, if you think he can stop his streak of decisions with a knockout or stoppage late.
Betting on Crawford to most closely hit his most recent 5-fight average of 8 rounds (all wins, of course, since he’s still undefeated) gets you +3300. That covers a Crawford win in rounds 7 or 8.
Bottom line: this is a match that has the potential to rival Hagler, Leonard, and Hearns era. Boxing hasn’t had a fight like this for years. Bet on a great fight.