One punch ends everything. That’s why the public always backs the name. But history shows the money often lands on the guy with less hype and a better chin.
Everyone loves a puncher. Maybe the betting types love them a little too much though.
The numbers don’t back up the amount of support people put behind a more famous boxer.
Betting on boxing for Lucky Rebel players means skipping the emotions and focusing only on the reality.
That means often fading the bigger name and sticking with the more skilled fighter. The numbers are in your corner on this.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Public Loves the Puncher
The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to why people flock to the heavyweight fights. Heavyweights score knockouts at a 70% rate, compared to the numbers in the 30’s for the lower weight classes. And people love a decisive KO, especially from a famous name.
Those especially proficient KO artists get an elevated place in society. Ali. Foreman. Tyson. And more recently, Fury and Wilder.
Deontay Wilder stands above them all, maybe not in fame, but in KOs. Out of his 42 wins, 41 have come by knockout.
So, we know why public money has flowed to Wilder and his KO power in his last two fights against Tyson Fury. Fury was the underdog in both, in spite of being undefeated and – to many – more technically skilled and tactically superior. And of course, he won both and would have been great value to sharps who didn’t get swayed by the public.
Sportsbooks say between 65% and 75% of all the betting handle on a fight skews towards the more famous fighter. They feed the hype too, of course, looking to maximize their return on the casual betting public.
If the lines seem inflated toward the favorite, take a solid look at the underdog for a potentially big payday. Solid fundamentals and a better recent track record give the ‘dogs more than a puncher’s chance.
Chin Beats Fame
If one-punch power is overbet and overvalued, what actually helps a heavyweight fighter get the W and the glory? (And the next massive pay-per-view cut)?
It’s the chin.
The heavyweight who can take some damage but recovers repeatedly during the fight offers the biggest upside. This separates the famous punchers from the true contenders. Boxers who have been hit with a higher career “KO percentage suffered” have a much higher risk of being upset in their next fight.
That stat measures the percentage of a boxer’s losses that come from KO/TKO only. It’s also shown as % KO losses or KO rate.
From 2013-2023, those fighters with a history of more than 20% KO losses lose at more than double the rate of those fighters with a stronger chin, i.e., lower percentage KO losses.
Today’s fighters to possibly fade, even though they have stellar W-L records, are Charles Martin, Eric Molina, and Chris Arreola. Each of them is well above 70% range in KO rate.
They could go into a fight as favorites but are an upset risk – make that an opportunity, for Lucky Rebel bettors – later in the fight.
That’s because of the KO rate, sure, but also the overall stamina and resilience.
History is full of talented heavyweights that got gassed as the fight wore on. Upsets happen when a more durable fighter can absorb punishment while his flashier opponent has a weaker chin and worse cardio.
Andy Ruiz Jr. showed a perfect example when he took down Anthony Joshua in their 2019 fight. Joshua was a knockout machine heading into the fight. He was the undefeated unified heavyweight belt holder too.
The odds were -2500 to -3000 for Joshua to Ruiz’s +1100 to +1200.
He also looked the part, compared to Ruiz’s dad bod. Casual bettors had to just look at them side-by-side to lay all their money on Joshua. But Ruiz took a knockdown and plenty of other punishment, and a gassed Joshua got stopped in the seventh after four knockdowns by Ruiz.
That big of a gap in odds is a bit of an exception. But for normal odds that lean the favorite’s way, the contrarian bet by Lucky Rebel players can often be the play when a durable, workhorse fighter is facing a puncher with a weak or unproven chin.
KO Markets Are Overpriced
Along the lines of the same reason that everyone loves a knockout artist and everyone bets the fame, we’ve found the heavyweight KO prop bets are overbet and overpriced.
The betting public believes – contrary to the actual stats – that with two powerful punchers in the ring, every fight gets stopped before it goes the full 12.
So they flock to the inside-the-distance markets, where the books juice the props around KOs and TKOs. If a fighter is listed at -200 for a KO, you can expect the real likelihood to justify -150.
Reality hits hard for those bettors.
Between 50-55% of major heavyweight title fights do go the full 12 rounds, resulting in disappointed bettors. Except for some who know how to play the game.
Smart money among Lucky Rebel’s boxing fans knows that inflated lines will invariably create value somewhere else.
You’ll find the “fight goes to decision” bets (aka “fight to go the distance”) offering real value. They’re usually underbet and have better odds, especially with two fighters that have proven chins or less KO power.
Major title fights go longer for different reasons, but mainly because both fighters are more defensive and less willing to go for the big shot and expose themselves.
Look at some of the bigger fights in the last decade. Fury vs. Klitschko. Joshua vs. Parker. Fury/Wilder I. Each of them came with tons of hype with lots on the line for both fighters. And they all went the distance as they were either too evenly matched or the stakes were too high to come out swinging for the knockout blow.
This makes the decision bets and props more attractive for the smart money when a highly touted fight is happening.