Can the influencer beat the former champ?
Anthony Joshua (-1400)
The “Judgment Day” fight between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua looks like a total mismatch on paper, on so many levels.
First, there’s Joshua’s street cred. He’s held the unified Heavyweight title twice in his long boxing career. His last fight was just in March 2025, so there’s not much ring rust to shake off.
Then there’s weight and reach. Joshua will come into the fight at 245 pounds, about 25+ more than what Paul will weigh. Paul’s punching power, already not at a pro heavyweight level, will be an issue: can he even move or hurt Joshua?
Joshua is 6’6” to Paul’s 6’1”. His reach is six inches longer than Paul’s. And that alone could be the deciding factor. A reach advantage that large could hurt Paul in a few ways. Joshua could jab him endlessly, and never let Paul get inside to hurt Joshua’s body or tire him out. It also means Paul will have to move more and work harder to inflict any kind of damage, which could drain his energy and youth advantage after the first 3-4 rounds.
Motivation? Joshua has won the belts and proven himself at the top of the heavyweight game. In that sense, he has nothing to lose. But reputation and legacy? Those are big factors for many fighters. He’s not going to want to lose to a crossover influencer/fighter who made a name by doing stunts on YouTube for most of his life.
Jake Paul (+700)
Jake Paul is the reason this fight is attracting so much attention.
But that attention doesn’t translate to better odds for the American cruiserweight. He’s years behind Joshua when it comes to boxing experience.
That’s why oddsmakers have him at +700 for the December 19th fight.
But in virtually all of his 13 “pro” boxing matches – mostly made-for-TV events against various celebrities and ex-UFC fighters or ex-pro boxers – Paul has shown a lot more than the fight fans and boxing betting action has expected. And his improvement in every fight is the kind of trend that boxing bettors like to see. Turns out he is kind of a natural.
When it comes to betting the Paul-Joshua fight, a lot of the casual money will understandably have some PTSD from the time Paul fought Mike Tyson just over a year ago. Into the early hours of the morning, a fight against a legendary fighter like Tyson turned out to be a total waste of time and money for a lot of people.
Paul had youth on his side – he went into that fight 31 years younger than Iron Mike – plus some of that natural ability. But it was obvious to even casual fans that Tyson held back multiple times from really going after Paul. Many suspected that there were too many incentives for the fight to go the distance for Tyson.
Will the Joshua fight be similar? The likely answer is no.
Joshua is only 8 years older than Paul. His ring experience is much more recent. And he doesn’t really need the cash or the strange incentives to sandbag it.
Paul is also moving up in weight class, which could take the speed off his movement and cost him endurance-wise. Added weight to carry around could catch up to him by the middle rounds, and Joshua could seize the opportunity.
The edge here for Paul, if there is any? This fight was announced in mid-November. Paul was already training for a different fight – a rematch against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. The shorter window for Joshua to train could show up in the ring. Most top-level fights have a training camp of around 6-8 weeks minimum, and some are even longer at 10-12 weeks. This Paul-Joshua fight gives the Englishman just over 4 weeks to get ready.
Paul – and optimistic fans of his – might study Joshua’s 2019 loss to Andy Ruiz Jr., where Joshua was TKO’d in the 7th round by an opponent that gave up height and conditioning. Or the two losses to Oleksandr Usyk, a cruiserweight that moved up like Paul is doing and took Joshua by decision each time. But both Ruiz and Usyk were highly experienced boxers.
Bet Types for Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua
The boxing odds for Paul vs. Joshua will be cleaner this time around compared to the Tyson fight. There are no incentives for the older fighter to last longer, as an example. So the books can set the Paul-Joshua lines more accurately and base it on skill. The only real non-standard changes to the rules are the shorter fight – 8 rounds instead of 10 or 12 – and the cap on Joshua’s weight. He can’t weigh in above 245.
Fight to go the Distance. A Yes bet here is paying +375, with a No at -575. The boxing oddsmakers clearly think that Joshua isn’t going to tempt fate by letting this one go the full 8 rounds. We don’t see a great edge for Paul here, unless you think he dances and ducks his way out of trouble for the entire fight. He’s not above embarrassing himself in front of millions, so you can’t rule anything out.
Method of Victory. Paul is +900 to win by KO, TKO, or DQ. The DQ part is least likely, since Joshua is a disciplined fighter (i.e. there will be no ear-biting). Could Paul soften up the ex-champ with body blows and then surprise him with a knockout? Anything is possible, especially with the short prep time for Joshua. But still doubtful. The interesting play could be Paul’s conditioning edge. At +500 for Joshua to win only by decision or technical decision, boxing bets might like the American’s ability to stay upright, move often, and go the distance.
Rounds. There are dozens of Rounds bets to make, with the biggest payouts going to a Paul win in the early rounds. For strategic bettors, there is a possible play at +700 for Joshua to win in Rounds 5-8. A combination of low-risk fighting early (Joshua will not want to expose himself to any embarrassing surprises) and the veteran’s ability to wear down the less experienced Paul could mean an opening for a KO/TKO in Round 5 or the final rounds.