The public backs the buzz. But history shows the real edge comes from late leaks, studio politics, and betting momentum. Not the critic’s favorite.
Outside of big sporting events, the Oscars and every other award show are 24/7 hype leading up the event.
There’s your signal for smart money to sit back and strategize.
Award show books get public money pouring in for the most popular performances of the year. But the lines move for other reasons, and sharps know what to look for right up until the stars step onto the red carpet.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Favorites Lose More Often Than You Think
Set aside the emotions from that tear-jerker you watched earlier this year, or that cheesy song you keep singing to yourself in the car.
Award show betting at Lucky Rebel is all about raw data, not raw emotion.
The data is not favorable to favorites either. In the past 15 years, the odds-on favorite for Best Picture at the Oscars has lost about 33% of the time.
For context: a 33% failure rate for short-odds favorites is in the higher range than in most every other kind of betting market. In horse racing, as an example, a 2:3 favorite will fail about 30% of the time. And that’s against fields that are bigger than the one in the race for Best Picture.
Even worse news for Oscar favorites: in five of the past 15 years, a “sure thing” with odds above 60% to win ended up missing out.
In 2022, Power of the Dog was the favorite with 62% odds of winning. But it got beaten out by CODA.
More Oscars history has other similar data points for bettors… In 2020, the movie 1917 was a 67% favorite but ended up losing out to Parasite. In 2017, La La Land had 70% odds of winning, but also lost out to an underdog. 2015’s Boyhood, 2013’s Lincoln and others suffered similar fates.
How do smart bettors play this? It’s worth paying attention to don’ts more than the do’s when it comes to award show betting.
It’s not like it’s an automatic upset by a different picture is the play. Besides the odds-on favorite, there are 9 other movies to pick from. Smart money doesn’t spray and pray, so that’s not an option.
It’s also not great to follow the public or critical buzz. That applies to award shows as much as it does to sports. If it’s the correct buzz, the lines for the frontrunner have already been drained of value with shortened odds. If it’s the wrong buzz, which it often is, then you’re just out some cash.
Ok, enough don’ts.
Check the industry guild awards. SAG, DGA, PGA, BAFTA. These can shift momentum for the contenders for the major awards like the Oscars. If there’s a surprise winner, that might snowball.
Once you’re embedded in guild award knowledge and there is a shock winner, jump on the odds before they adjust. Markets often lag by a few hours or up to a day.
Finally, track the final 48-72 hours…
Late Leaks Move Markets
If you’re intent on betting the Oscars, you’re going to have to track the market moves closely. The Oscars ship is a leaky one, especially late in the game.
Insider whispers, rumors, and straight leaks help move the books towards certain favorites and underdogs. But sorting out a betting strategy based on rumors and not on empirical facts like touchdowns and 3-pointers is tough.
Lucky Rebel Oscars bettors should look for:
- Sudden spikes in “underdog” odds. Somebody knows something.
- Volume increases immediately after industry news or leaks. The public and the media love to get into Oscars talk for an escape from all the bad news. Casual bettors respond predictable and emotionally. Serious bettors aren’t fazed.
- Repricing on the day of guild wins or late screenings. The books know that this can jumpstart momentum. Jump in quick after those guild wins and score better odds than you would just a couple of hours later.
It’s in the last 48-72 hours before the red carpet rolls out that the books use their data and info sources to sharpen the odds.
On the Thursday before the Oscars in 2020, the odds for the more obscure “Parasite’” improved from 28% to 42% within 24 hours. This despite being behind “1917” and being as far away from Hollywood – South Korea – in its origins as you can get.
But Parasite’s odds were shifted big time by last-minute stories from studio insiders and whispers about Academy screening feedback. And they of course did win. Leaky boat, that Hollywood.
Same situation for Moonlight vs. La La Land in 2017. The latter had a commanding 70% shot at winning best picture and was leading for weeks. But closer to the Academy Awards night, thanks to more insider rumblings, the two films were at almost even odds by the time the curtains opened for the event. Spoiler: Moonlight won.
Close attention to industry insiders and rumors can help bettors hedge or find more favorable odds before the books adjust.
Studio Campaigns Shape Outcomes
Some films that feel Oscar-worthy to the studios are released late in the year. This gets them fresher PR and buzz than another contender released 8-10 months earlier.
Then there’s the studio influence. Studios can spend between $10-$25 million campaigning for Best Picture for their movie. Swag, special event invites, and favorable PR through influential critics and writers all could move the needle.
The narrative built for a certain movie with a star’s career track record and lifetime achievement, or around a political/social cause, can move voters too.
All these can impact voters’ choices more than the actual performances or the critics’ opinions.
Betting on the Oscars or any award show is subject to all these influences that have little to do with the actual merit of the movie, song, or performance.
Yeah, we’re not so Hollywood either. We’re here to play the game and make some cash.
Lucky Rebel bettors can optimize their bets by paying attention to late moves, studio pressure, and insider whispers.