The CFP is Finally Here.
Alabama @ Oklahoma
Ok, after a week of bowl games with the no-names, bowl season is getting serious.
The Crimson Tide head to Norman Stadium to face the Sooners in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl this Friday night- aka the opening First Round CFP matchup of the college football season.
The two legendary programs are neck-and-neck heading into the game. They finished the season at #8 and #9 in the AP Top 25, both had 10 wins during the season, and the spread is the closest of all the games in the first round at just -1.5 for the Tide.
Oklahoma struck first this season, winning 23-21 just a month ago.
But oddsmakers are giving the slight edge to ‘Bama in the spread, mostly because a lot had to go right for Oklahoma to pull off that Week 12 win. They scored a pick six on their way to 17 points from turnovers. Excellent field position won’t be guaranteed this time around, and there’s a slim chance that the Tide turn the ball over three times again.
At the same time, Oklahoma might be able rattle Alabama QB Ty Simpson. He’s thrown 4 INTs in his last four games, and that was against weaker defenses than Oklahoma’s 7th-ranked D. They allowed just 13.7 ppg this season.
The problem for Oklahoma is a mediocre offense. They barely put up half the total yardage that Alabama did in that Week 12 battle, 212 to 406. That kind of output only had Oklahoma in 78th spot in the country in scoring this season.
On top of all this lack of offense, playoff games – especially between conference rivals – in any sport are usually played tight. Expect that O/U of 40.0 points to offer NCAAF betting fans a decent shot at the Under.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Miami @ Texas A&M
It came down to the wire for the Hurricanes to even land a spot on the final 12 for the CFP (sorry Notre Dame fans), and it won’t be any easier for them when they head to College Station.
The Miami-Texas A&M game should still be close though – the books have the ‘Canes as underdogs by just over a field goal when it comes to the spread.
Miami QB Carson Beck is a brand name that could draw the public money to Miami for the upset, but he’s actually only played in a handful of meaningful games for Georgia. He also threw 4 picks against a good defense in Louisville this season. How he’ll handle the Aggies’ pass rush is a big question mark. Texas A&M led the country in sacks per game.
Beck will also be tested when it comes the pressure of the 12th man, A&M’s famous crowd. They’ll be as loud and chaotic as ever. But the real strength of Texas A&M happens on the field. They’re top 30 in both passing and rushing, and top 10 when it comes to allowing yards at home.
Miami will have something prove against all the hype that said it should be the Fighting Irish instead of them in the CFP. But we’re not sure that chip on the shoulder will be enough to overcome an elite, balanced Aggies team at home.
Tulane @ Ole Miss
Besides Miami, there is no team in the CFP heading into their opening game with as much to prove as Ole Miss as they face Tulane this Saturday.
The massive move by Lane Kiffin to ditch the team before they suit up for the CFP made all the headlines for weeks.
Under the hood though, the Rebels are still the same team that went 11-1 this year, and Trinidad Chambliss is the still the same QB who led them to the country’s third-highest passing total. Not that any team needs a push when aiming for the National Championship, but Ole Miss should be extra motivated to prove they can win the game without Kiffin.
Tulane did a stellar job just making to the CFP, but the books aren’t giving them much of a shot. Ole Miss is favored by 17.5 points. This despite the Green Wave’s 11-win season of their own, and the fact that their worst game of the season is the one that too many bettors might be looking at. It was a 45-10 Ole Miss in in Week 4.
But QB Jake Retzlaff can play using his arm and his legs, and he’s led Tulane to 400+ yards of offense in every game except that one hiccup against the Rebels.
The chaos and drama caused by Kiffin, combined with the Green Wave’s ability to move the ball, might just be enough to have them beat that 17.5 points and score the upset.
James Madison @ Oregon
We think it’s a bit strange to see a #24-ranked team in the CFP. It’s supposed to be resembling the 12 best teams in the country, and James Madison isn’t near that group. It’s why this Oregon-James Madison game has the biggest point spread of the CFP First Round.
The Dukes did have an impressive 12-1 season in the Sun Belt Conference though. They do have the country’s 6th-best run game. But they didn’t face the kind of competition that the Ducks did all season long. Oregon played four ranked teams this year, going 3-1. JMU, on the other hand, didn’t play one team in the top 25.
Despite that tougher sked, the Ducks are top 15 in both offensive and defensive yardage. Making it worse for JMU betting fans is the Oregon home record of 19-1 over the past two seasons.
We’re not saying there’s a great payday with a -1500 moneyline play for the Ducks. But there is a possible look-ahead factor here. Oregon has its sights on the National Championship game. They were ranked in or around the top 5 all season. They could be looking at the Dukes as just a small speed bump in their way.
That could mean going on cruise control in the fourth quarter, allowing JMU to score a garbage touchdown and crack that 3-TD spread.