NCAA Football’s Top 5 games of the week.
Oregon State @ #6 Oregon
Why are we including the 35-point spread game between mighty Oregon and much less mighty Oregon State?
Because huge NCAAF odds on one side are pretty appealing, especially for an intra-state rivalry.
Oregon has dipped slightly in the AP Top 25 since Dillon Gabriel left for the NFL, but they’re still a force.
But is this a trap game for the Ducks? They’ve coasted through the first 3 weeks of the season against unranked, non-conference teams. They’ve won by an average margin of 44 points, nine more than what the books are giving the Beavers.
So they haven’t been remotely tested yet this season. And the biggest factor is the look-ahead one, where they face #2 next week in a huge game with CFP implications. Look-ahead games get teams to drop their guard and coaches to rest key players.
Ok, the Beavers aren’t a lock to cover that 5-TD spread. They were down 28-0 to Texas Tech at halftime a week ago, and they are very soft in the secondary. Meanwhile, Oregon is 5th in the country in points for and 10th in PA.
Still, you know this game is the one that’s been circled on every Beaver player’s calendar heading into the season. State bragging rights and the look-ahead factor could be enough to keep this one closer than the spread shows.
#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma
The stats people have this Auburn-Oklahoma game listed at a 65%-35% win probability for the Sooners.
OK QB transfer John Mateer has been one of the biggest stories this college football season, racking up huge numbers and 3 W’s to kick off his career as a Sooner. He’s in the Heisman conversation with almost 1,000 yards already.
Auburn has its own portal QB in Jackson Arnold. He’s led the Tigers to three wins as well, including a 38-point total against Baylor last week. It’s the first conference game for both sides though, so you know the Tigers are going to be up for this one.
But after three weeks of the NCAAF season, we’ve seen enough and collected enough data to see that Mateer is a juggernaut, throwing and passing. A 6.5-spread for the Sooners seems like a solid candidate to cover.
#21 Michigan @ Nebraska
Can the Wolverines recover after licking their wounds from their loss to Oklahoma last week?
The Michigan-Nebraska game is at Lincoln Field, a hostile place for Wolverines freshman QB Bryce Underwood to try to recover from last week’s L. Extra pressure sitting on him since no CFP contender wants to have two losses on their record, especially before the end of September.
Nebraska’s QB Dylan Raiola could make that 2-loss nightmare a reality. He’s got 8 TD’s and zero picks on the season, with close to 900 yards passing already. He’s #1 in the country in passing efficiency too, and the Cornhuskers are 3rd in the country in third-down conversions.
It’s a conference matchup too. Brings more pressure to the rookie QB from Michigan. Raiola, a soph now, has been through a season of them already.
It all adds up to a tight game – just like the 2.5-point spread shows. With a SU win by Nebraska (+115), we could see a flip in the top 25, with Michigan losing its ranking and the Cornhuskers gaining theirs.
Florida @ #5 Miami
The Sunshine State rivalries always bring the heat.
This week it’s the #5-ranked Hurricanes vs the Gators.
Each year, it’s either FSU, Florida, or Miami that has the hot team. This season, it’s definitely not the Gators.
They were shocked by USF in Week 1, then turned over the ball way too often to LSU. They’re caught in a ranked team buzzsaw now too, with Texas ahead next week.
All that to say: the Gators are down bad. If you think a big-time rivalry game is enough to get them to cover the 7.5-point spread, take your shot. Sometimes a conference game, especially against a hated state rival, is just what a team needs.
But Miami’s numbers are looking too good to blindly sign off on a Gators upset. Hard Rock is a hard place to play. The U is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as a 7-point+ favorite. They are just 4-6 ATS in those wins though, if you still want to hang onto some Florida upset hopes.
The QB mismatch might be the biggest factor. DJ Lagway still hasn’t lived up to his promise and last week he tossed 5 picks. Carson Beck, on the other hand, is in pole position for the Heisman and looks more dominant every week.
Purdue @ #5 Notre Dame
Heading into the season, if you looked at this matchup and had to guess which team hadn’t won by Week 4, you probably wouldn’t have guessed the Fighting Irish.
But the Purdue-Notre Dame odds have to factor in the Irish’s record now, and their shot at a CFP spot look long.
History, for what it’s worth, is not on the Boilermakers’ side in this matchup. They’re 0-9 SU in their last nine games against Notre Dame. If you think regression is a thing, there’s no better shot than right now to pick on a demoralized ND team.
The Irish have lost to two ranked teams, to be fair. And the Texas A&M loss could have gone either way.
You won’t see a more desperate team on college campuses this weekend than Notre Dame. Going 0-2 is bad enough just for a proud school on a national TV contract, but they’ll have to run the table to have any chance of making the CFP and avoiding the shame of some Taco-Insurance Bowl in mid-December. Another X factor, besides extremely high motivation, to cover the 24.5-point spread? Count on elite Jeremiyah Love to rack up the yards and the TDs against a Boilermaker D that is just 68th in the country in yards allowed on the ground.