The first Bowl Game kicks off December 13
Army vs. Navy
One of the loudest and most emotional games of every NCAA football season happens again this Saturday as Army and Navy battle it out for the Commander-in-Chief trophy.
This year it’s a contrast between the balanced run and air attack (ironically) of Navy and the grinding running power of Army.
Blake Horvath, Navy’s star QB, can beat teams with his arms and his run game. He’s led the Midshipmen to a 30.5 ppg average and he’s been a key part of their 280+ yards rushing per game too. The mission for Army is pretty straightforward: stop Horvath and you’ve got a shot at the Army-Navy odds that currently favor Navy at -6.0.
The issue with Army is that they’re one-dimensional. Seriously one-dimensional. They don’t have anywhere near 1,000 yards passing for the entire season, while the run game has racked up 254 yards per game. They lead all of NCAA football in rushing attempts per game with 59. That means Navy can stack the box on nearly every play.
Overall, even at an O/U of just 38.5, the Under looks like it’s in play here, unless you think Horvath really goes off. Most of the excitement in this one could be in the stands as both legions of fans get into it like they usually do.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Boise State vs. Washington
Given the annual tradition of weird bowl names, the Bucked Up LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk is a great way to kick things off.
The Broncos took the Mountain West title this year with a 9-4 record, but it wasn’t enough for a CFP spot. Those four losses will keep any team out of the CFP. The Huskies, meanwhile, have seen their share of much more glamorous bowl games like the Rose Bowl over the years, but this season they get Bucked Up.
Washington finished 7th in the Big Ten at 8-4, a big distance from Boise State’s conference title spot. But of course, strength of opponent matters, and the Huskies have had to face the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon in a brutal conference overall.
The Huskies are just two years removed from making it all the way to the National Championship Game behind the play of Michael Penix Jr. And Ashton Jeanty is by far the Broncos’ most famous grad. Both players were in action the last time these two teams met in 2023, with Washington taking it 56-19.
Point spread-wise, the Huskies’ 9.5-point advantage comes down to having more NFL-caliber players on its roster. If they were playing the game closer to Boise State’s natural Mountain West habitat, we’d say that spread and the +275 moneyline for the Broncos are both too high.
But the LA weather at SoFi Stadium should give Washington and its highly-ranked offense ideal throwing conditions.
After a rough year of battling ranked opponents, expect the Huskies and their ace QB Demond Williams to handle the Broncos’ lighter lineup and cover. All the Boise State-Washington odds are right here.
Troy vs. Jacksonville State
The IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl is the next mouthful for bowl season, and this year it features Troy vs Jacksonville State. Not two teams that would normally pick up a lot of betting action or national attention, but in bowl season they’ve got a prime spot on Tuesday, Dec. 16.
Both teams come into the game with identical 8-5 records. And as you’d expect from two teams that are just above the middle of the pack, not much stands out in terms of their national ranking. Except Jacksonville State’s run game, which was 4th in the FBS in rushing yardage this season. The Gamecocks racked up close to 260 yards per game. Troy’s rushing D was just 112th in the country, so there’s a clear mismatch here.
The home team Trojans are still favored though – by a small 3.5 points. We’re liking the upset potential. Troy has a tough time keeping QBs safe, giving up the most sacks in the FBS this season. This late in the year, teams are tired. A punishing run game and a defense that can put the heat on any late-game QB heroics could put the Gamecocks on top.
Arkansas State vs. Missouri State
The Xbox Bowl goes Thursday, Dec. 18 and it has the Red Wolves of Arkansas State taking on the Missouri State Bears. Extra points if you knew the nicknames of either team before reading this.
But early bowl games are usually some of the best ones to watch. No egos, no draft picks being protected – just national exposure and teams that lay it all on the line. And with a 56.5 total, this one could be a shootout.
Both teams have QBs that can put up big numbers. For both their team and the opposing team’s defense. Jaylen Raynor threw for over 3,000 yards this season for the Red Wolves, but also tossed 11 INTs. Ditto for Missouri State’s Jacob Clark, who also had 11 picks along with close to 2,900 yards and 24 TDs.
The spread is just a field goal or less, so we might like the momentum play here. That means Missouri State gets the pick. Arkansas State is just 1-4 in its last 5 games.
NC State vs. Memphis
The NC State-Memphis game is the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, another classic word salad bowl that should provide lots of offense on Friday, Dec. 19. There’s no history to go from here when it comes to NCAA football betting angles – it’s the first time the teams are facing each other.
Memphis is trending in the wrong direction, going into the game on a 3-game losing skid. The Wolfpack on the other hand closed out the season with two solid wins over UNC and Florida State. Their season highlights include a strong 48-36 win over a top 10 Georgia Tech team just over a month ago.
We don’t see a reason to fade the favorites here, even though NC State is favored by almost a touchdown. Good momentum, battle-tested against ranked opponents, and a lethal red zone offense that has put up points on 38 out of 41 trips inside the red zone.