College Football Playoff hopes are on the line
#9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa
The famous “trap” game. It’s actually a bit of a myth, cooked up by sports media types.
Sure, some teams might look ahead at a bigger opponent a week from now, or come off a huge win, and underestimate their current enemy. But the stats don’t back it up.
So ditch the trap game narrative and let’s assess these two teams straight up.
The Oregon-Iowa game is strength vs. strength. The Hawkeyes are 7th in the country in passing yards allowed per catch, keeping receivers to under 6 yards. The Ducks, meanwhile, are 5th in the country in points scored per game. And while QB Dante Moore is deserving of the attention – 19 TD on the season against just 4 picks – it’s the Oregon running game that could make the difference here. They’re 9th in the country, racking up 237 ypg.
With the chilly, wet November weather out in the Iowa cornfields expected to be in the low 40’s, running the ball will be front and center. Especially considering how Iowa bottled up Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza earlier this season. Moore might not have much time or room to operate.
Both teams need the W here in order to have a hope in the tough Big Ten, so motivation (or trap game noise) won’t be an issue. It’s the talent on the field that will make it happen, and the Ducks are loaded.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
#3 Texas A&M @ #22 Missouri
The Texas A&M-Missouri clash in Week 11 of the NCAA football season has CFP pressure all over it.
And because they’re undefeated and they’ve racked up 40+ points in five different games this season already, the Aggies are favored by a full touchdown at the moment.
The Tigers, on the other hand, are in danger of slipping out of the AP Top 25 at the worst possible time as we head to the end of the season. They’ve lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Barely hit 20 ppg in those games too. Throw in freshman QB Matt Zollers making his first start in this pressure cooker and that 7-point spread could even be a little too generous for Missouri.
The X factor to keep this game within 7 for Mizzou is of course RB Ahmad Hardy. He’s 4th in the country in rushing and can break a big one off at any point in the game. But with an unproven frosh QB in for Missouri, the Aggies can stack the line to stuff the run and let their DBs handle the passing game.
#1 Ohio State @ Purdue
For the Ohio State-Purdue game this weekend, is there a chance that the Buckeyes take a foot off the gas and let things slip?
The Boilermakers are the first of three teams with losing records that OSU will face. While a SU win seems completely safe, that 30-point spread could be in play.
At the same time, you know the Buckeyes want that #1 spot come CFP time. They can’t afford a single loss while they duke it out with Indiana, Texas A&M, and the rest of the top teams for the regular season crown.
That’s why we’re not buying the “look-ahead”, playing it soft angle that people like to chirp about. Add in the fact that Purdue lost their heart-and-soul (and starting RB) Devin Mockobee earlier this week, leaving the 2-7 Boilermakers even weaker against the country’s #1 defense. If you’re looking for a heroic storyline – the team rallying around their veteran star and playing for him – you might like Purdue to leave it all on the field and cover. But that’s narrative vs. reality.
Navy @ #10 Notre Dame
The College Football Playoff rankings just came out this week, and you can set your watch to it every year. The Fighting Irish are causing the most controversy.
They were listed at #10 in the CFP rankings, even with a 6-2 record. This puts them ahead of teams like Texas and Oklahoma. The message boards and TV shows are saying the Irish doesn’t deserve such a high placement.
Means nothing, of course. It’s a bunch of suits giving content to talk about.
But it could motivate Notre Dame to come out hard against Navy this weekend.
They definitely can’t add another L to their record. Definitely not against other golden domers that are 26.5-point underdogs.
For a 7-1 Midshipmen team, that huge spread could be bulletin board material too.
ND has all the weapons to make this game a blowout, sure. But the weather is going to be near freezing and possibly wet. That negates a lot of the CJ Carr-led passing game that’s hitting close to 275 ypg this season and has taken the team to 14th in points scored. And it favors Navy’s run-heavy attack. While the Irish defense has kept teams below 90 yards per game on the ground, they’ll be under constant siege for four quarters here.
We still like ND on the moneyline, no question. There’s too much to play for and too much talent on their side. But watch the weather. As it looks now, the 56 O/U looks high and so does that 4-score spread.
#7 BYU @ #8 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are peaking at just the right time.
They’ve hit 42 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They’ve actually scored 34+ in every game this season except for one. And their D is no joke either, giving up 14 ppg and sitting all season as one of the top 5 defenses in the country. But their schedule comes with an asterisk. On their way to an 8-1 record, they’ve only faced one ranked team (Utah). Tough call to say if they’ve really been tested.
The BYU-Texas Tech odds, currently favoring Tech by 10 points, reflect the Red Raiders’ dominance this year as much as it reminds us that BYU has looked pretty shaky in recent weeks for a top 10 team.
Three of the Cougars’ last three wins have been by 6, 3, and 4 points only. That includes a squeaker against Utah.
Looking for an edge? The O/U of 52.5 could be in play as an Under pick. We’re looking at the #17 defense (BYU) against the #5 defense (Texas Tech) when it comes to points allowed per game. BYU’s only hope is to grind it out and keep the Red Raiders’ high-powered offense off the field as much as possible.