The College Football Playoffs are right around the corner
#15 USC @ #7 Oregon
This USC-Oregon game has everything on the line for both teams. Namely a spot in the College Football Playoff and a huge boost for either program.
Spread bettors who have stayed loyal to Oregon this season have been getting hit though.
The Ducks are just 5-4-1 ATS this season, despite their 9-1 record overall. That tells us they’re vulnerable for a late-season letdown, especially with a spread hovering near double digits.
And especially against a Trojans team that is the strongest it’s been in years. They’re a top 5 team in total yardage and top 10 in scoring this season. Their two losses – both to ranked teams – have come by a combined 12 points.
Even though Oregon’s nation-leading pass D could shut down USC QB Jayden Maiava, the Trojans can hit back with a strong defense of their own. They just held Iowa to 21 points, and they’ve held Notre Dame and Michigan to 24 and 18 this season.
That spread of -9.5 in favor of the Ducks looks vulnerable, and if the weather isn’t too Oregon-like, the Trojans might make that +290 moneyline play look pretty good. If the weather really is wet and cold like November can be in the Pacific Northwest, then the elements and the Ducks’ monstrous 230+ ypg on the ground will take the ball out of Maiava’s hands.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Pittsburgh @ #16 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King leads the nation with an average of 340 passing yards per game. In their last 3 games, the Yellow Jackets have racked up 567 ypg of total offense too.
What do these numbers mean for Pitt?
It means trouble. Add in the motivation factor – with a win, GT gets a spot in the ACC Championship Game and an outside shot at making the CFP – and we don’t see how Pitt keeps it close to their current +2.5 spread.
The 9-1 Yellow Jackets are also 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games. They’ve also won their last 8 straight at home against ACC teams. All signs are pointing towards a Georgia Tech win.
The only factor in what should be a high-scoring game (the O/U is a huge 62 points) between Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech that could tip things Pitt’s way is their own impressive offense. The Panthers are 12th in the country in scoring, averaging over 37 ppg. Late in the game, with an offense that can put up numbers easily, a garbage touchdown could pull them close enough to the Yellow Jackets to cover.
#22 Missouri @ #8 Oklahoma
We’re a little surprised to see the Tigers still in the AP Top 25.
Sure, they’ve had probably the most brutal schedule in the country this NCAA football season. The Oklahoma-Missouri game in Week 13 will mean the 4th ranked team they’ve faced. But still, 3 losses is 3 losses.
The Sooners have faced their own share of ranked teams this year too, but they’ve come out on the winning side in four of their five of those games. That includes a huge W last weekend over Alabama.
With two strong defenses – the Tigers have allowed an average of just 283 total yards in each game this season, while the Sooners allow fewer than 17 points per game – the Over/Under has been priced low at 42 points. Even with that tight O/U, the Under could be in play. Oklahoma’s games have gone Over only twice in ten games this year, and Missouri’s games against ranked teams have gone Under three times so far.
Right now, the Sooners are a lock for the CFP. But they can’t take their foot off the gas in these final two weeks of the season.
Expect a big showing from the home team that has too much on the line.
#13 Miami @ Virginia Tech
The motivation factor for each team in the Miami-Virginia Tech game couldn’t be more different for both teams.
The ‘Canes are still gunning for a CFP spot, and even though the odds are low at securing one, they have to play every down like it matters. Miami was ranked as high as #2 this season, so we know they have the game to make it happen.
The Hokies, on the other hand, have a brand new coach this week, one that is coming into a demoralized 3-7 program.
Sure, it’s an ACC rivalry, so the underdogs can get up more than usual for a conference game. And there is something to a new coach smell.
But we think the talent and motivation gaps are too big. Miami has a shot at the CFP, and running up the score to beat the 3-score spread looks well within reach. They need impress the CFP voters as much as they need to put another W up on the scoreboard.
#24 Tulane @ Temple
Spread bettors, enter this one at your own risk.
Tulane is just 4-5 ATS this season, and with another -8.0 next to their name in the sportsbooks, it looks like a large number for a road game.
But the Tulane-Temple game is another late-season NCAAF staple when it comes to motivation as a major factor. The Green Wave is looking at a real shot at grabbing the #12 spot in the CFP. They’re coming from the Group of 5 and are in a dog fight with North Texas and Navy to make the NCAAF Playoffs.
The Owls, meanwhile, are at 5-5 and could be on the golf course in December, unless they pull off a win in the final two weeks to secure a Bowl game.
Conference games can be tight, and those 8 points against a motivated unit that also happens to be 6-2 ATS at home this season look like a lot. Then again, Temple isn’t exactly running hot right now, with two straight losses.
If the spread looks too tight to call, have a look at the 56-point O/U. Both teams have multiple games this season where they’ve put up 30+ points.