It’s Rivalry Week in college football
#1 Ohio State @ #18 Michigan
For most people (at least outside the SEC), this is the rivalry in college football. It’s known as The Game. The Ohio State-Michigan game goes back 128 years. Not a typo. They first played in 1897, and then met every year (except for 2020) since 1918.
This year, the Wolverines need this win more than OSU though. Michigan doesn’t appear on the CFP Rankings bracket released on Tuesday. They require help to get there, needing either Indiana or Oregon to lose if they want to make their way into the Big Ten Championship game.
But they have to beat the #1 Buckeyes to get there too. It is something they’ve done for the last 4 seasons, a solid stat when it comes to college football betting trends. This includes 3 wins as the underdog and 4 straight covers too.
This version of Ohio State is something different though. They’re a juggernaut.
With elite RB Justice Haynes doubtful for Michigan, the big odds in favor of the Buckeyes make even more sense. Michigan is averaging 6.5 yards per carry this year, with Jordan Marshall and Haynes doing all the damage. Now it looks like Marshall will have to carry the load on his own against a punishing Buckeyes’ D that is 1st in the country in points against – a crazy 7.6 ppg average. They’ve allowed 16 points just once all season, while giving up just 80 ypg on the ground.
The X factor here is motivation. Michigan has most of it, since Ohio State is already a lock for the CFP. Add in some home field advantage and the recent history, and if you’re a vibes bettor, you like Michigan to cover. But they’ll have to overcome all the numbers that say otherwise, including the -400 moneyline that says Buckeyes.
Check out the Latest Odds at Lucky Rebel.
#4 Georgia @ #22 Georgia Tech
The Georgia vs. Georgia Tech game comes at a rare time that both teams are ranked this late in the season.
But we’re not talking rankings here, or even CFP stakes. The Yellow Jackets blew up their promising season with a 42-28 loss to Pitt last weekend, while the Bulldogs essentially punched their ticket to the CFP by beating Texas a few weeks ago.
We’re talking – and hoping for – a repeat of last year’s epic 8-overtime game between the two bitter state rivals. Georgia won 44-42.
The Bulldogs come into this game as 13.5-point favorites, so oddsmakers aren’t counting on it being that close this time around.
But team pride does strange things. Tech’s going to want to come out hard after that embarrassing loss to the Panthers, and the Bulldogs might rest a couple of key players. A home ‘dog could be the play here.
#3 Texas A&M @ #16 Texas
Better luck next year for the Longhorns? After so much promise in the preseason, including Arch Manning for the Heisman as a virtual lock at the time, 2025 hasn’t gone their way.
All that goes out the window when you take the Texas A&M vs. Texas rivalry though.
In spite of their 13-team spread in the AP Top 25, the ‘Horns are just 2-point underdogs.
That could have something to do with Manning and his redemption story. He was getting blasted in the media after a rough start to the season. The last 4 games though? Arch has 11 TD passes against just 2 INTs. That isn’t just against cupcakes either. He threw for 3 TDs and 328 yards against a tough Vanderbilt D in that stretch.
No better way to end the season and forget those 3 L’s on Texas’ record than beating the hated Aggies.
Problem is, the Aggies are a problem. They’re 11-0, they’re 10th in the country in points for, and they want that SEC title and first-round CFP bye. Texas isn’t going to roll over – there’s too much history in this 120-year rivalry – but the Aggies might not give them a choice.
#12 Miami @ #22 Pittsburgh
Miami-Pittsburgh in NCAAF wasn’t on anybody’s radar heading into the college football season, but this one could be a classic.
The Hurricanes need this one, badly. They need to it to get to the ACC title game, which they also need for a spot in the CFP. They are also playing like a team that wants it, with 3 straight wins by 17+ points.
Pitt needs it too though. A win here, plus a loss by SMU or Virginia, puts them into the ACC title game and a real shot at the CFP for themselves.
Miami does have the “us against the world” narrative to play off. The story in FLA circles is that Miami is being disrespected because of their rep, especially compared to squeaky clean Notre Dame. Both teams are looking at an at-large bid if they can’t crack the CFP straight away. But the ‘Canes have already beaten the Fighting Irish, so that should count for something when it comes to decision time for the CFP committee.
All this is noise come kickoff. The talent on both sides is solid, but Miami has a proven vet in Carson Beck at QB while Pitt has freshman Mason Heintschel. The X factor could be the frigid late November weather up in Pittsburgh, which doesn’t ever favor the warm weather team. That could be enough to freeze fingertips and not finish tackles late in the 4th, where the Panthers could cover those 7 points with their strong running game.
#10 Alabama @ Auburn
The Iron Bowl is in its 90th year for Alabama and Auburn. It should be an epic battle, even if the Tigers have lost some of their mettle this season.
For Alabama, this game means more than just bragging rights. If they win, they’re into the SEC Championship game and a legitimate shot at a spot in the final 12 for the College Football Playoff. Lose, and they’re almost definitely just a flashy bowl team.
The spread, at just -5.5 for Alabama, looks a bit light. Auburn is having a bad year all around, and at 5-6 they’re 13th in the SEC.
Oddsmakers must be looking at home field advantage and the rivalry aspect, which can keep games closer than the talent on the field would suggest. They’re also looking at defensive stars who can keep a lid on both offenses.
Auburn’s Xavier Atkins has 7.5 sacks this season and leads the entire SEC in tackles for loss. His ability to create havoc comes at a time when Tide QB Ty Simpson is slumping too. Simpson was in the Heisman conversation for a solid month this season, but he’s thrown picks in back-to-back NCAAF games the past two weeks. Combine that with a drop-off in his touchdown passes compared to the first 10 games of the year, and the books might be discounting Alabama more out of recency bias than actual overall skill. But there’s too much on the line here for the Crimson Tide to dip any lower. That spread looks very coverable for the favorites who are looking to punch their ticket to the CFP.