It’s Conference Championship time in College Football.
#20 North Texas vs. #21 Tulane
The weekend of FBS Conference Championships kicks off Friday night and the North Texas vs. Tulane game could produce fireworks right off the bat.
It’s the American Conference Championship game, but more importantly, both teams have a shot at the Group of 5 entry into the CFP. And it all comes down to this single game. A spot in the College Football Playoff means money to a school (a lot of it), plus branding and exposure, which then draws in more talented recruiting classes and top coaches. Which would help, since both teams are losing their coaches to bigger programs this offseason.
While other conference title games this weekend might have less on the line, this one will be 60 minutes of all-out war.
BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff could be the difference-maker for this slim 2.5-point underdog spot that Tulane finds itself in. He’s a dual threat in passing and running the ball. This matters in goal line situations late in tight games. A bet on Tulane is a bet that Retzlaff can make it count against a North Texas defense that is just 72nd in the country in points allowed per game.
A bet on the Mean Green is a bet that they’ll use their high-octane offense to cover up any defensive deficiencies. They are an amazing first in the entire country in points per game, racking up close to 47 points on average. It’s why the O/U is a very high 66.5, and we’re still thinking of going with the Over.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
#3 Georgia vs. #10 Alabama
The SEC Championship comes down to Georgia vs. Alabama this weekend.
Alabama has had the most impressive of seasons when it comes to taking down ranked opponents, and while they’re projected to be a first round CFP team based on the latest rankings, it’s not guaranteed.
The Tide have beaten Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri this season already. Most importantly, they’ve taken down Georgia too. If they beat the Bulldogs twice in one season, you have to figure they’re a lock for the CFP.
Georgia might not want to have 2 L’s to the Tide in one season, but they’re much more assured of a spot in the CFP quarterfinals already. The urgency won’t be there as much as it will be for ‘Bama.
For what it’s worth, there’s some recent history before this season too. Georgia is 0-4 against Alabama in the SEC Championship over the past 8 seasons.
We’re leaning towards the underdog Crimson Tide covering and taking that +113 moneyline too. Pride is one thing for a program – especially in the intense SEC – but if it’s tight towards the end, Georgia’s not going to lay it all on the line with bigger games to play just a month away.
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Indiana
Is this the NCAA football version of the Super Bowl?
Two 12-0 teams. Two elite QBs who are 1-2 in the Heisman Trophy odds. The Big Ten Championship on the line (before the National Championship next month of course).
The only catch here is that both teams are too good. It’s possible that the loser still gets a first round bye in the CFP. Both coaches might want to head into the holidays as a winner, but more importantly they’ll want they top players to stay healthy. That kind of thinking could mess with the Ohio State-Indiana lines.
This means trouble for the oddsmakers but it could give an edge to sharps, especially when it comes to live betting the game. If one team is pulling away in the third, you might not see a huge effort to close the gap.
If you can’t decide on this betting this matchup full of strength vs. strength ahead of kickoff, look at the recent spread history. The Hoosiers are 7-5 ATS this year, barely winning a few close ones against Penn State and Iowa. The Buckeyes? A powerful 10-1-1 ATS.
#11 BYU vs. #5 Texas Tech
BYU plays Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship game this weekend in NCAA football, and the Red Raiders are the biggest favorites of the entire weekend at -12.5.
That’s a big spread for teams separated by just 6 spots in the AP Top 25.
But the Red Raiders score close to 10 points per game more than BYU. And Jacob Rodriguez, the Tech linebacker who’s in the Heisman conversation, is leading a Raiders’ D that is third in the entire country in points allowed per game.
The question, like so many NCAAF betting scenarios this weekend, comes down to motivation. BYU fully needs this game to have any shot at making the College Football Playoff. Texas Tech could lose and will still almost definitely be in.
That drive – plus the revenge factor since the Red Raiders already have a win over the Cougars this year – is what could keep BYU closer than the spread suggests. And the permanent underdog/overlooked status the BYU has could work in their favor. They’re a strong team that has faced the 6th-toughest schedule in the country and still ended up at 11-1 heading into the final week of the college football regular season. They’re battle-tested. Oddsmakers and the betting public consistently underestimate the Cougars.
The Red Raiders are powerful, no doubt, and they’ll be gunning for that first round CFP bye. That’s why we’re wary of that +380 moneyline for BYU. But that spread looks beatable.
#16 Virginia vs. Duke
Virginia vs. Duke is the matchup for the ACC Championship game, but does either team really belong there with Miami looking in from the outside? The tiebreaker system that put the Cavaliers and Blue Devils in the title game robbed the more talented Hurricanes.
But this one still has plenty at stake.
For Duke, a win means a solid shot at a high-level bowl game. For Virginia, winning means most likely a spot in the CFP.
Darian Mensah has been a great QB for the Blue Devils this season, but he might not be enough for this one. One of the strongest parts of the Cavaliers’ roster is their secondary. They can shut down Duke’s potent air attack and force them to rush, where the Blue Devils are barely in the top 100 in the country.
Overall, shutting down a Blue Devils side that already has five losses on the season is likely. We’re not 100% sure why the spread is just -3.5 for the Cavaliers, with so much at stake for them and so much more talent, but we’ll take that edge and expect them to cover.