College Football picks entering the final third of the season
#10 LSU @ #17 Vanderbilt
No one is underestimating Vanderbilt ever since last season’s 40-35 shocker over Alabama. That includes the oddsmakers, giving the lower-seeded Commodores a 2.5-point edge over LSU in NCAAF Week 7.
The last time Vanderbilt was the favorite against a seeded team was in 1978. That’s close to 50 years. 176 games.
LSU-Vanderbilt gives you enough reasons to think like the books are thinking. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier is having a much less spectacular season than the Heisman crowd predicted. He hasn’t hit for 300+ in any game yet – unheard of for an LSU team in the past decade – and he’s 2-4 against ranked teams in his career.
But if you think Vandy’s edge is undeserved, you also have some ammo. QB Diego Pavia is just 2-5 against ranked teams himself, and he only managed 14 points against Alabama two weeks ago. But they’re still top 10 in points for on the year, so a bounce-back performance is a solid possibility.
Neither team can afford another SEC loss this season, so it’s a must-win for both. With it being a home game and with the fact they’re coming off a bye, picking the Commodores could justify the end of that 50-year streak.
#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia
While Georgia QB Gunner Stockton isn’t going to make anyone forget Carson Beck, he is playing well enough to get them into the top 10 in the AP poll for Week 7. He took them to a W in a tough game against Auburn last week, and has thrown only one pick all season, while throwing and rushing for 12 touchdowns.
But the Rebels are going to be up for this Ole Miss-Georgia battle. They’ve got the “disrespecting us” chip already programmed, coming in as 7.5-point underdogs. That number might be justified though. Even though they’ve rolled to a 6-0 record (3-0 against SEC opponents), they just barely squeaked past Washington State in a game where they were favored by 30+ points.
Add in the first road start for their QB Trinidad Chambliss – in Sanford Stadium no less – and the Rebs could be in for a dog fight. Watch Kewan Lacy as the X factor for Ole Miss. He’s second in the SEC in rushing yardage, and he can wear down the Dawgs’ defense in case Chambliss is struggling.
#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama
This 8.5 spread in favor of the Tide in the Tennessee-Alabama Week 8 game seems high.
For starters, Alabama has shown itself to be a prime target for big upsets in recent years. That big one against Vandy came a year ago. This season got off to a shocking start with a 2-TD loss to FSU.
Tennessee’s only loss this year was a 44-41 nail-biter to #6 Georgia. If you can hang 41 on the Bulldogs, then you should be able to put up points on the Crimson Tide, who have a similar team D that hovers around 20th in the country. In a week full of must-win games, this one could rank as the most crucial. Both the Vols and the Tide are at 5-1 and can’t afford another loss in the hyper-competitive SEC. That urgency alone should keep this game tighter than the spread is telling us.
Both QB’s – ‘Bama’s Ty Simpson and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar – are having excellent seasons. Simpson is getting Heisman buzz every week, while the Volunteers are 7th in passing yards and 2nd in the nation in scoring.
Expect a shootout here, but with an asterisk. The O/U is 58.5, so the oddsmakers might have priced it a little too well. Teams can tighten up and shrink the playbook when there’s so much on the line. With that in mind, the Under might be the move.
#20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame
With one of the highest totals this season, the USC-Notre Dame game in Week 8 of college football is expected to be light on defense.
The Fighting Irish are coming in as 9.5-point favorites. But is that justified? They lost to Miami in Week 1 and Texas A&M in Week 2, and haven’t beaten a ranked team yet this season.
USC has been tested much more often and that #20 ranking feels more earned. They’re coming off a 31-13 win over the then-#13 Wolverines (Michigan fell two spots after that loss) and they barely lost to Illinois the week before.
Looks to us like the oddsmakers are shading the lines towards the hype and rep that Notre Dame carries with it every season. We like momentum at this stage of the season, and the Trojans have it.
#23 Utah @ #15 BYU
Another big time rivalry – this one nicknamed the Holy War – is coming in as a must-win for both sides in the Utah-BYU Week 8 game.
It’s a Big 12 game where the winner has a great shot at the conference championship game later in the season, facing Texas Tech most likely. The loser will be relegated to a bowl game at best. And it’s the first time both schools have met as ranked teams since 2009. With these stakes, the books have it closely matched, with Utah getting a 3-point edge.
That edge must come down to quarterback superiority. The Utes’ Devon Dampier is a major dual threat, coming into the game with a 70+ completion percentage and racking up close to 6 yards per carry every time he opts to run. In their most recent game against #21 ASU, Dampier ripped the Sun Devils for 120 yards rushing and 3 TDs on the ground. He’s got 11 passing scores and 4 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Cougars have Bear Bachmeier, who is getting the job done this season but can’t match Dampier. He only has 7 TD since the start of the season, and an average of one touchdown per week won’t cut it against a higher-ranked team.
Late game, it’s easy to see a Utes score pushing this above 3 points when Dampier has a tired defense to run over.