College Football picks entering the final third of the season
#8 Ole Miss @ #13 Oklahoma
Strength vs. strength.
It’s Oklahoma’s defense that has them as early 4-point favorites in the Sooners-Ole Miss game this weekend.
They’re #1 in the entire country in yards per game, allowing a measly 213 total ypg through the first 8 weeks of the college football season. Scoring? They’re second in the country, giving up just 9.4 points per game.
And it’s the Rebels’ offense that has them in the top 10 with a legitimate shot at countering the Sooners’ ferocious D. Ole Miss is putting up just under 500 yards per game, good for 8th in the country.
So which one will crack first?
Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels’ star QB, showed solid but not spectacular numbers in his first major road test last weekend, a 45-35 loss to Georgia. Putting 35 points up against the ‘Dawgs, in hostile Sanford Stadium no less, it a good sign that he could handle the Oklahoma crowd. In Georgia, he showed his dual-threat ability, putting up 263 yards passing and 42 on the ground, including 2 rushing TDs.
But Oklahoma isn’t all defense now that QB John Mateer is back. His first outing in a month resulted in a 26-7 win over South Carolina last week. He kept it efficient, completing close to 70% of his passes.
We usually like to have our opinion, no doubt. But this one is so close to call that you need to decide: a home crowd, insane D, and Heisman candidate regaining his form? Check the Sooners if that’s your call. Or a high-octane, road-tested, hungry team that can’t afford another loss this season? Go Rebels if that’s the case.
#15 Missouri @ #10 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt jumped 7 spots in the AP Top 25 after last weekend’s big win over LSU. The Commodores have all the momentum going for them this season, with their only loss coming against Alabama two weeks ago.
It’s the combo of QB Diego Pavia having his breakout season and a tough run defense that makes Vandy so tough to play.
The Mizzou are coming off a solid but unimpressive win over much softer SEC rival Auburn last weekend. It’s tougher to get a read on the Tigers this season. They steamrolled through the first five weeks of the season, with only one win coming by fewer than 11 points. They ran into a tough Tide team that beat them by just a field goal.
We feel these two teams are trending in opposite directions and that favors the Commodores. The current spread for the Missouri-Vanderbilt game is just 3 points, with Vandy as the favorite. Missouri’s Ahmed Hardy ran wild the first 3 weeks of the season, but he’s put up just 52 and 58 yards in his last two games.
That’s a bad trend against a Commodores D that is 12th in the nation against the run, giving up just 92 ypg total.
Stanford @ #9 Miami
A 30-point spread in favor of the Hurricanes is a tempting one for sharps.
That’s 4+ touchdowns to cover. Right after a game where the ‘Canes lost by 3 to unranked Louisville.
Oddsmakers might figure they’ll come out angry, a bounce-back game where Miami can’t afford to lose any more games this year.
But is the Stanford-Miami game the one that will do it for the U? The Cardinal are just 3-4, sure. But they’re coming off a big-time confidence boosting win against FSU last week. They don’t need to travel either, sticking around Florida for another week. That can only boost their time zone and shrug off any lingering fatigue.
The X factor here is on the sidelines and in the booth. Stanford GM Andrew Luck and head coach Frank Reich are turning around the program. Their 3 wins this year already equal their total wins in each of the past 4 seasons. Thirty points gives them a lot of room.
#3 Texas A&M @ #20 LSU
No one expected the LSU Tigers to have two losses this season, much less before we even hit Week 9 of the college football season.
But that’s where we are after another NCAA football upset last weekend, when the Tigers fell to Vanderbilt.
The question now is: What is LSU playing for anymore? They have virtually no chance of making the CFP now, at 5-2. Will they come out flat against an Aggies team that is #3 in the country? If you’re a momentum bettor, fade the Tigers here.
But if you’re a bounce-back bettor, you might think the tight 2-point spread favoring the 7-0 Aggies in the Texas A&M-LSU matchup keeps a late field goal in play for the Tigers to cover.
We’re not so sure. It’s rare in NCAA football to see a spread this tight with teams that are 17 spots apart in the rankings. Especially since only one of them has something to play for. Given their dashed CFP hopes – and with Alabama and Oklahoma still to come on the Tigers’ schedule, which is even more discouraging – we don’t see how LSU keeps it close enough to beat the spread.
Wisconsin @ #6 Oregon
Another tempting 4-TD+ spread brings us to the Wisconsin-Oregon game in Week 9 of college football.
This one is at 34.5 and could hit 5 touchdowns by the time kick-off rolls around.
The balanced attack of the powerful Ducks is what the oddsmakers are banking on with such a big spread. They’re #6 in the country in both offense and defense when it comes to yards for/yards allowed.
With a 34.5 spread but just a 46-point O/U, it’s clear that the oddsmakers don’t expect much more than a touchdown from Wisconsin.
Unlike the call above where we think Stanford could beat the 30-point spread, we like to lean Ducks here, even though the huge spread looks ripe for a contrarian play. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore seems to be getting better every week, with 19 TDs and just 4 INTs on the year. He just torched Rutgers for 56 points too.
The Badgers have been shut out at home in back-to-back games in recent weeks and have lost 5 straight.
After a shocking loss to Indiana two weeks ago – snapping the country’s longest home win streak of 18 games – the Ducks will be hunting. They also can’t take another L on their record. Expect a big bounce-back game.