Heisman Winners. Blue Bloods. Public Loves Them, But the Spread Rarely Does. Bowl Season Is a Goldmine If You’re Not Starstruck.
Bowl Season Is a Public Trap
Bowl season is here.
And betting on reputation instead of reality is not what Lucky Rebel players do.
Old headlines from August and September still linger in the casual betting fans’ heads. Especially if those headlines include big brand schools.
But a lot of the time, we’re looking at fake news.
Sportsbooks might even set the trap at this late in the game of the college football season, feeding into media hype and padding the points on some big name programs, even though they might not deserve it.
Let the casual fans throw money at the household names.
You’re still betting NCAA football with value and an edge in mind.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
ATS Records of Public Teams
Alabama is as blue-blood as it comes in college football.
Every year it seems they’re high in the rankings, and they’ve got that storied history.
But they entered the ReliaQuest Bowl last season as 16.5-point favorites. They were ranked 11th in the country, and Michigan was unranked.
Result? A 19-13 Wolverines win.
A day later, Texas took on Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Longhorns’ QB Quinn Ewers was a preseason Heisman candidate. ASU shocked the league all season by even making the big bowl games. It’s unlikely they had even 50% of the public’s awareness or mindshare compared to the Longhorns.
Texas’ 12.5-point favorite status didn’t hold up though. ASU lost by just 8 points and sharps who saw it all in unfolding in advance made money.
Those seasoned bettors would have seen that A) The Sun Devils were above 80% covering as an underdog all season and B) Texas hadn’t won by more than 14 points in their previous 8 games.
Study the big names and be skeptical when you see inflated lines.
And study the motivation and track record of the smaller schools.
Motivation Factor
That Michigan vs Alabama game last season is a prime example of motivation as a key factor.
You could see ‘Bama slipping in the rankings all season. And we know you saw that massive upset by Vanberbilt over the ‘Tide earlier in the year.
By the time they limped into Bowl Season, ranked 11th after being a preseason darling to go all the way, you had to figure they were less excited to play than an old dog.
They were even left out of the CFP. No way they wanted to be in a meaningless bowl game.
On the flip side, Michigan is a big-time school that had a rough season, with only the 100-best offense in the country.
Call it pride. Motivation. A shot at redemption. You just know they were looking to salvage something from the season. And taking down big bad ‘Bama would check all the boxes.
Stats and data matter less in Bowl season. They’re still important, but the sharps know there’s more to these college football bets than just numbers.
We’ve seen the locker room talks, where players are ready to run through a wall for their school and their teammates. Especially with departing seniors or coaches to play for.
Add that to a big chip on a small school’s shoulder, and you’ve got a spread-beating underdog ready to go.
Opt-Outs, Coaching Changes, and Distractions
College football has gotten complicated in recent years.
Forget just three TV networks, every player playing the full 4 years and players leaving it all on the line for a shot at getting drafted.
Now, it’s less than 50-50 that a team’s top players will even suit up. Players are opting out if they’re eyeing the draft that’s just 4 months away.
This is especially tricky for those blue blood teams. They’re likely to have more NFL-calibre players on their roster.
Coaching changes add to the chaos.
Rumored moves to the pros, changing programs, getting dropped by a school within days of a bowl appearance. It’s a carousel.
It’s not just the favorites that are impacted, but sharps know that the bigger schools are more susceptible to these changes.
Need more complications?
Throw in added distractions of long time off, exam pressure, and for some brand name players, (often at brand name schools) the NIL factor is an issue. Players are positioning for that NIL cash and may not be focused on the bowl game.
Meanwhile, players at smaller schools are heads-down getting ready for the biggest game of their lives.
Bet accordingly.
Sharp Bowl Strategies
Fade name value. Focus on matchups, motivation and effort.
That’s your main strategy right there.
Name value is almost meaningless with all of the above factors when it comes to NCAA Bowl Season these days. But you know casual fans will still flock to the program first.
We also want to keep a close eye on blue-chip players that will be wearing sweats on the sidelines for the bowl game.
Removing a star corner or a touchdown machine running back will impact the spread. Either one could mean an easy TD swing in either direction.
Injuries and overall team health should factor into your Bowl Seaons betting strategy too.
If a double-digit underdog is healthy and all its players are in the lineup, give them a real good look.
If You Bet Helmets, You’ll Lose Your Hat
Last year’s Pop Tarts Bowl (we don’t make the names) had the storied Miami Hurricanes taking on Iowa State. Despite being 4 spots higher in the rankings, Iowa State was a 3.5-point underdog.
But the Miami brand is strong, after all. Even for the Sportsbooks.
Sure, respect the history. It’s the U, after all.
Don’t overly fade teams just because they have a big brand.
But sharps look at everything above to make their moves. They see the NCAA bets in front of them, not the helmets.