Bet on the CFP final game between Indiana and Miami.
Miami
The Miami Hurricanes are, for most of the country outside of Miami at least, the biggest surprise of the NCAA season. Their road to the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship read like a movie script.
They entered the 2025-26 college football season ranked No. 10 in the AP preseason rankings. Not bad, but that’s still a lot of traffic to get through on the way to the final game of the NCAAF season. That meant passing Alabama, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and a handful of other elite programs. Now it’s down to Indiana and Miami.
At +8.5, oddsmakers are giving Miami a better shot than last week’s blowout win by Indiana over Oregon might suggest. Maybe they figure the Hurricanes can hang for a few different reasons…
One is their defense. Reuben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been dominating the pass rush all season. The ‘Canes finished first in the country in sacks with 47 on the year. The overall Miami defensive unit held both Texas A&M and OSU to zero points in the first half of their CFP games. That puts a lot of pressure on a second-half offense, playing catch-up and creating more opportunities for turnovers.
Carson Beck, the ‘Canes QB, is another factor. He’s throwing for close to a 70% completion rate in the CFP games so far. Not bad facing the #2, #6, and #7 teams in the country. If Beck can use all his experience and keep up that consistency, Miami has a shot.
And, depending on how you feel about intangibles, there’s legacy. The Hurricanes were the program in previous decades, winning 5 national championships in 18 years starting in 1983. The names are iconic – Ray Lewis, Warren Sapp, Ed Reed (and you’ve seen Michael Irvin this year on the sidelines). This is a program that knows what a championship mentality is, compared the first-timers on the Indiana side.
Then there’s Cinderella effect. Again, it can come down to more than X’s and O’s. If you think some teams are just destined in certain years to win it all, the Hurricanes are as good a candidate as any. The CFP committee voted them in over teams like Notre Dame, barely landing them a spot in the playoffs to start with.
Home field advantage is extremely rare in the NCAAF championship game as it’s always a neutral site matchup, but this year the ’Canes get to play at Hard Rock Stadium, their own backyard. In a closer game, we think this would be a solid edge, but the Hoosiers are such big favorites that the added points that come from being familiar with the turf, the weather and the lighting shouldn’t add up to much for Miami. And there will be just as many Hoosier boosters in the crowd, so it won’t be a true home game.
Bottom line for Miami: their defense could get to Mendoza like no other team has this year, and turnovers can swing a game outright or at least close a point gap when it comes to beating the spread. And if you’re an intangibles bettor, there’s no better storyline than Miami’s this season. If these factors add up, that +260 moneyline looks like a solid payday.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Indiana
Indiana. Hoosier Country. That’s all basketball, isn’t it?
Not anymore. The Indiana Hoosiers are looking to become the first college football team to go 16-0 in a season. That 56-22 stomping of the Ducks last week showed the country that the power center of NCAA football can also exist outside of the SEC. Indiana kept knocking down elite teams from the Top 10 all season, including Ohio State (who looked like an unbeatable juggernaut themselves), Illinois and Oregon (who they beat twice). Against ranked teams, Indiana was 5-0 ATS, so it’s no fluke they are where they are.
Of course, the Hoosiers still have to win their first-ever football national championship. How do they stack up against Miami?
We mentioned the ‘Canes defensive line. It’s the biggest problem for Indiana, and if they don’t measure up it could get tight for QB Fernando Mendoza. Bain Jr. and Mesidor have 12 sacks in their first two CFP games already.
But Indiana does seem to measure up well against a strong d-line. The Hoosiers’ offensive line was named as finalists for this season’s Joe Moore Award, which goes to the top O-line in college football. They only allowed 11 pressures in their recent CFP games against Alabama and Oregon. Overall, they allowed fewer than 2 sacks per game too. With Mendoza’s confidence and performance sky-high at the moment, he can also get the ball out quickly if Bain Jr. and Mesidor start punching holes in the Hoosiers’ line.
More on Mendoza: the Heisman Trophy winner has only 5 incompletions across their CFP quarterfinal and semifinal wins. Those are numbers that few pros ever hit. He alone makes it tough to bet against Indiana straight up.
But while Mendoza has grabbed all the headlines, the Indiana defense could prove to be the X factor here. They’re flying under the radar attention-wise, but if Carson Beck can throw 4 picks against Louisville (earlier this season), he can definitely get rattled by a team that ranked in the top 25 in passing yards allowed. And Louis Moore, the standout DB for Indiana, tied for the country’s best interception total this year with six picks. We wouldn’t be surprised if Moore grabs a key interception in a high-pressure environment that can rattle even the most seasoned college quarterbacks, especially when they’re playing from behind.
Recent betting trendlines when it comes the spread don’t help much. Both teams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. You need to treat this matchup on its own numbers and intangibles.
Overall, the lines look almost overly fair for Miami bettors when you consider that Indiana is in the top 3 in the country for points scored and points allowed. Those are dynasty-level numbers that haven’t been seen much since… late 80’s Miami.