The latest insights into your NFL bets this week
Las Vegas Raiders (+385) @ Denver Broncos (-550)
Thursday Night Football between the Raiders and Broncos should not even be close, on paper.
The current 8.5-point spread in favor of Denver looks close to being correct, but look closer. The Broncos are 1-3 in their last 4 games where they’ve been favored by 7+. Their shiny 7-2 record includes narrow wins over the Jets, Giants, and Texans, where they could easily have lost all three.
Some might point to the Raiders packing it in for the season, trading WR Jakobi Meyers this week, as a sign that Denver will roll. Then we see that Brock Bowers is back, ripping off 12 catches and 3 TDs in his return to action for Vegas just last weekend. Meyers, despite his $33 million contract, was only averaging 31 ypg in his last 4 games.
We like the contrarian plays. The Raiders have enough pride and offensive power in players like Bowers and Ashton Jeanty to hang with Denver and keep it close – and divisional games are often tighter than non-divisional ones. Not that we’re going full Vegas, but that +385 moneyline even gives the Raiders some solid ROI potential straight up if you’re feeling lucky.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Atlanta Falcons (+230) @ Indianapolis Colts (-300)
The Falcons took a surging Patriots team to the brink last weekend, losing by just one point. The problem is they can’t seem to string together two quality games in a row.
They’ve lost 3 straight since that huge win over Buffalo, so it’s tough to get a read on this team.
Even tougher now, given that this is a Germany game. Both teams will be on foreign footing, literally.
We’re calling for a bounce-back game here for Indy in this Falcons-Colts matchup though, after the Colts took a hit last weekend to their otherwise excellent season. The Steelers took them down 27-20 and controlled much of the game.
The X factor here is the addition of Sauce Gardner to the Colts’ defensive backfield. The trade deadline deal just happened this week, and if he gets his new uni sent to Munich in time, Sauce could shut down Drake London to help Indy take this one by more than just a touchdown.
New England Patriots (+127) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-154)
New England QB Drake Maye is getting all kinds of attention as the next Brady.
The second-year starter is looking like an MVP candidate more and more every week. He’s thrown for 2+ TD passes in every game over the past four weeks and has the Pats on a 6-game win streak.
The Bucs are coming into the game at 6-2, fresh off a bye too. While teams only come in with a 50-52% win rate coming off a bye, this Bucs team needed it. They’ll have a few players still out but could see some fresh legs – possibly Bucky Irving – coming off injuries. Those legs might not be enough though. The Patriots’ run D is the league’s best unit. They only allow 75 ypg. This will push Baker Mayfield to air it out more often, and he’s still missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Bake’s gonna bake, no matter what, but the Patriots are on a roll and they have a QB that is getting better every game. We like the road underdog here, plus the Over, in what could be a pass and points-heavy Patriots-Bucs game.
Philadelphia Eagles (+119) @ Green Bay Packers (-144)
This Eagles-Packers game is a Monday Night Football matchup that could serve as a January playoff preview.
And which team we’re going to see on the field – for both sides – is a coin toss in this uneven NFL season.
The Packers are getting the slight edge on the moneyline and with the spread, but that looks like it’s all based on home field advantage. Which Green Bay team will actually show up? The one that looked like a Super Bowl contender when they dominated Pittsburgh two weeks ago? Or the one that got beat by Carolina last weekend?
We think it’s the latter. Injuries have suddenly hammered the Pack, with Tucker Kraft out and a number of wide receivers hobbling.
Meanwhile, Philly is coming off a bye, a chance to re-focus after a stretch where they’re 2-2 in their last 4 games and not looking much like Super Bowl defenders.
But this 2.5-point spread has to be brand name biased towards the Lambeau mystique. Right? Philly is rested, relatively healthy, and they’re 8-2 straight up in their last 10 road games. They’re also perfect in their last 4 games coming off a bye.
As long as that spread stays so tight and the moneyline is a plus for Philly, even though they’re not dominating like they were a year ago, we like the road ‘dog here.
Baltimore Ravens (+114) @ Minnesota Vikings (-138)
Both teams are on the rise after shaky starts to the year, and this Week 10 matchup between Baltimore and Minnesota looks like it has make-or-break potential for the playoff race. The Ravens’ faint hopes got a boost with Lamar Jackson’s return last week, and the former league MVP started dealing as soon as he got back onto the field. His 4 touchdown game against Miami comes with an asterisk though: those Dolphins are not the same as the Brian Flores-coached defense in Minnesota.
The Vikings’ defensive coordinator has been getting all the credit for his team’s shutting down on Detroit’s high-octane offense last weekend. The Vikes beat Detroit 27-24 by bottling up Goff, St. Brown, Gibbs and the rest of the Lions.
They could make Jackson sweat too. At least enough to have them cover a seemingly big 4-point spread.
But it’s the Ravens’ defense that quietly could make the difference and even snag a takeaway. Minnesota QB JJ McCarthy has looked at times like a seasoned vet this year, and at other times like a raw rookie (he’s closer to that part).
In a battle between a league MVP and a virtual rookie, we have to side with the Ravens.