The NFL Thanksgiving Day games are here
Green Bay Packers (+120) @ Detroit Lions (-146)
The Lions vs. Packers Thanksgiving Day game is looking like a coin toss.
Both teams are capable of looking like NFC champions one week. The next week, we’re scratching our heads.
Last weekend, it was Detroit’s turn to baffle NFL betting fans. They did eventually beat the New York Giants, but they trailed for most of the game and looked nothing like the NFC-winning Lions of last season. Detroit is 3-3 in their last six games, following up every win with a loss the week after.
This game has huge stakes. Both teams have nearly identical records, and a win here will move the winning team to the top of the NFC North with just 5 weeks to go on the NFL schedule.
The Packers are equally tough to read. They’re 2-2 in their last four games, and that includes last weekend’s win over the Vikings, where JJ McCarthy put in one of the worst QB performances of all time. Only two of the Pack’s 7 wins this season have come against a team with a winning record, and one of those was a Week 1 over the Lions. Don’t put too much stock in an opening week W for any team, much less one that is as inconsistent as Green Bay.
With that weak schedule for Green Bay not showing us much, we like the Lions to avenge that Week 1 loss, especially at home. And especially with the latest performance by RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who just went off for an insane 260 yards of total offense against the Vikings. Sure, Micah Parsons is lighting up QBs every week for the Pack, but Gibbs could run right past him.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Kansas City Chiefs (-177) @ Dallas Cowboys (+144)
The Cowboys are fresh off an ego-boosting comeback win over the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Eagles gave up 24 straight points to Dak Prescott and his go-to receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Both players would be solid bets for anytime touchdown scoring, but lean Pickens if you can. Lamb had three more drops last weekend and has the most in his career for a full season already (and it’s only Week 13).
You know the crowd noise and the Thanksgiving Day slot will get every player extra fired up for the Chiefs-Cowboys game, and that includes Patrick Mahomes.
After a rough game two weeks ago, Mahomes looked better last weekend as he led the Chiefs to their own come-from-behind win over the Colts. Indy was up by 11 points before Mahomes and Rashee Rice stepped up. Rice finished with 111 yards receiving and looks like he could go nuts against the Cowboys’ D, a unit that is 28th in the NFL in points against.
Both teams need a win to keep their playoffs hopes alive. But it’s tough to go against Mahomes in high-pressure situations. He seems to step up his game on the biggest stages.
Side note, just before you automatically go with the road ‘dogs: the Cowboys have won their last three Thanksgiving Day games.
Cincinnati Bengals (+250) @ Baltimore Ravens (-320)
It’s tough to be a stoic sharp all the time, especially when it’s NFL Thanksgiving and Joe Burrow is slated to return to the lineup just in time to face Lamar Jackson. With an extra dash of a fired up Ja’Marr Chase, who is coming off a one-game suspension.
But we keep our heads, right? Underneath the drama, there are some fundamentals we can’t ignore. Lamar Jackson is playing well below his former MVP-level quality right now. Injuries are one thing, but his whole game looks off.
More fundamental talk: Cincy’s defense is awful. They’re last in the NFL in points allowed and total yardage allowed. So if there’s a team that Jackson could use to get right, this is the one.
If Burrow’s return levels the playing field too much for the smart money to find an edge in the Bengals-Ravens spread or moneyline, take a look at that 52.0 O/U. Even with Jackson out for multiple weeks, the Ravens have the 10th-best ppg total in the league. With two elite QBs ready to sling it, and the Bengals’ Swiss cheese defense, the Over looks nice.
Chicago Bears (+250) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-320)
These new Black Friday NFL games offer a pretty solid recovery from the Thanksgiving Day binge. This year, you can sit back, relax, and watch the Eagles lull you to sleep…
The reigning Super Bowl champs continued their mediocre season last weekend, giving up a 21-point lead to lose to their hated division rival Dallas. If Philly players couldn’t get up for that one, how will they manage on 4 days’ rest against a Bears team that can throw a lot at them?
The Bears-Eagles spread sits at -7 for Philly, maybe reflecting some brand name bias by the betting public and the books. The Bears are a respectable 7-4 ATS this season, and they’re coming off another character-building win over the Steelers.
But what’s making us hesitate to go with the road ‘dog here? For starters, Philly’s home field advantage is real. They’ve only lost 4 games straight up in their last 20 at Lincoln Financial. They’re also 5-0 SU against Chicago in their last five meetings. We’re still waiting for Saquon’s return to MVP form from last season, and the Bears are 28th in the NFL in run D.
It’s those numbers and the Eagles’ defense that has us leaning Philly here. They held two other NFC North teams (Green Bay and Detroit) to just 7 and 9 points each in the two games ahead of last weekend’s glitch. Caleb Williams and the Bears might be in for too much of a grind on Thanksgiving Day.
Houston Texans (+185) @ Indianapolis Colts (-320)
The weekend’s games are full of playoff potential for more than a dozen teams, but the Texans-Colts matchup could offer the best matchup.
This one could come down to the final possession. It’s the league leader in yards allowed (Houston) against the league’s #2 in total yards gained (Indy).
Davis Mills has filled in well for the injured C.J. Stroud, with three straight wins (granted, two of those came against the Titans and the Jags). But Stroud should be ready, giving the Texans more of an edge on offense. That alone could tip this strength vs. strength game Houston’s way.
And if you’re looking for must-win status as an extra motivator, the Texans are currently 6-5, a full two games behind Indianapolis. They face the Colts in Week 18 too. Translation: they could swing the entire AFC South division their way with a season sweep of the Colts, and they can’t afford losing even one game to them.