Fighting for Playoff Position.
Atlanta Falcons (+190) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-240)
Tough Thursday Night Football game to call between the Falcons and Buccaneers.
Not only are the Bucs up and down lately, but what are the Falcons playing for? At 4-9 they’re out of a playoff spot. Any wins between this NFL Week 15 matchup and the end of the season only hurts their draft position next spring. But then, the Rams have their first round pick anyway.
At the same time, Tampa still has a lot to play for. They can win the NFC South outright by winning their next 3 games. But a loss against ATL makes even their wildcard chances shaky. And the Bucs are trending ugly heading into this one, winning just 1 out of their last 5 games.
Tampa took the first game of the season 23-20 over the Falcons. Not much has changed then for either team, except for enough injuries on both sides that effectively cancel each other out. Expect another tight one – divisional matchups are often close, even if one team is out of the running already – with Baker Mayfield coming through in the end.
Enough to cover the Tampa -4.0 spread though? Tough call there. The Bucs are a rough 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. But if you think the likely return of WR Mike Evans and the must-win vibes will boost the team at home, it may be time to expect a Bucs cover.
Detroit Lions (+215) @ Los Angeles Rams (-275)
Ok, we expected the Bucs to be in a fight to find a playoff spot at this stage of the season. We didn’t think we’d also find the Lions here though. But at 8-5, Detroit isn’t assured of anything past the first week of January. After making it to the NFC Conference Championship game last winter, Detroit is now sitting behind two teams in the NFC North (Chicago and Green Bay).
We fully expect Lions’ QB Jared Goff to feel right at home in LA – it’s where he spent 5 seasons before heading to the Motor City.
The spread for the Lions-Rams game is looking a little high for us at the moment, given the urgency of the game for Detroit and Goff likely feeling right at home. LA is favored by 6.0, but the Lions’ high-powered offense can put up points in a hurry.
Then again, Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford is playing lights out this season, and Los Angeles is in a dogfight with Seattle and San Francisco for the NFC West crown. They could almost guarantee a wildcard spot but you know Stafford’s old bones would love a first-round bye.
There is plenty of talent and motivation to match Detroit on the Rams’ roster. Stafford leads the NFL with 35 touchdown passes vs just 4 INTs. And he’s facing a depleted Lions’ secondary, with the latest blow coming from safety Brian Branch’s Achilles tear last week. Could be red meat for Stafford, Puka Nacua and the rest of the Rams’ receivers.
Urgency? The Lions have the edge. Everything else is pointing to LA.
Buffalo Bills (-116) @ New England Patriots (-105)
The Pats took Game 1 of the Buffalo-New England season series, but it was a tight 23-20 game.
That win came early in what’s now a 10-game win streak for the Patriots, including a 4-1 record at home ATS in their last five games. A soft schedule has helped, no doubt, so they’re going to need to dial up the intensity in this crucial AFC East battle.
What’s changed since that close one back in October? For New England, it’s TreVeyon Henderson. He came into the season riding tons of hype from the preseason games, then disappeared for a while. He only managed 24 yards rushing in that first Bills game. Now, he’s playing like the best RB the Pats have had in a decade. He averages close to 100 ypg in total yardage, and he’s had two multiple-TD games in the past month.
That’s all bad news for Buffalo’s D, which sits only 28th in the NFL against the run.
The good news for the Bills? Quarterback Josh Allen has a host of healthy receivers to go along with RB James Cook. And he’s Josh Allen.
With Henderson and Cook basically cancelling each other out, this game could end up being a duel between NE’s MVP candidate Drake Maye and Allen. And in a game that will feel like a playoff matchup, we like the veteran QB to pull off the slight cover on the road.
Minnesota Vikings (+220) @ Dallas Cowboys (-280)
While the Vikings haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoff hunt just yet, at 5-8 they’re hanging on by a thread.
How thin is that thread? The NFL ran 10,000 simulations on different teams’ chances of making it to the postseason, and on just two scenarios did the Vikings make it.
But they are playing some better ball in recent weeks. JJ McCarthy has even played some decent ball. So this Vikings-Cowboys matchup should at least be entertaining.
The Cowboys have a better shot, but it’s still a fringe chance at best.
The best part of this Sunday Night Football game is the battle between the Cowboys’ high-octane offense and the Vikings’ Brian Flores-coached defense. But if those more or less cancel out, what are we left with?
A Cowboys’ D that is suddenly improving into a proper unit, playing against the JJ experiment that still feels like it could collapse at any moment? With everything to play for, a home game (the ‘Boys are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games), and the edge going to Dallas’ defense, we like a fairly easy cover and a good shot at the 47.5 Over.
Cincinnati Bengals (+121) @ Baltimore Ravens (-147)
Burrow’s back.
The Cincy QB has only played two games since his turf toe injury, and he’s already in top form. He did everything he could in last week’s close loss to the Bills, missing only the same old story: a decent defense. He’s got 6 TDs and 540+ yards in those two games.
At the same time, Lamar Jackson 2025 is not Lamar Jackson of the past 5+ seasons. The Ravens’ QB is not in 100% game shape after his long injury absence, or at least his head is not in the game. That should provide some kind of relief for the Bengals’ D. They rank dead last, 32nd, in points against this season.
If they can at least slow down Derrick Henry enough, Burrow and his crew should be able to pull off the upset in this AFC Central Bengals-Ravens game.