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Baltimore Ravens (-500) @ Miami Dolphins (+360)
The Return of Lamar is something the Ravens need badly. And it’s happening on Thursday Night Football when Baltimore faces Miami.
Their playoff hopes are still mathematically alive, but it would take an epic run by the ex-MVP to get the Ravens there.
Meanwhile, which Miami team will show up? They hammered the Falcons last week, showing a game and a hunger that they haven’t shown for much of the season. Based on that that ATL game, NFL betting fans shouldn’t automatically expect Jackson and Derrick Henry to steamroll the Fins.
At -8.0 and -500 for the moneyline, oddsmakers are leaning – maybe a little heavily – on Jackson stepping up immediately. He might have some rust.
The Dolphins’ league-worst run D showed some teeth last weekend, holding Bijan Robinson to under 50 yards. If they can find a way to bottle up Henry and Jackson like that again, and De’von Achane and Ollie Gordon can get some more big yardage plays on offense, that 7.5-point spread favoring Baltimore might not hold up.
Check the lates odds at Lucky Rebel.
Kansas City Chiefs (-130) @ Buffalo Bills (+107)
The marquee NFL game of the year so far?
After the Chiefs spent the first half last weekend sleepwalking against the Commanders, they woke up. They did it old-school Chiefs style too, with so many weapons that opponents can’t keep up. Rashee Rice was a difference-maker, Travis Kelce racked up 99 yards receiving, Kareem Hunt, Patrick Mahomes, etc. etc.
For the Bills, it looks like their bye week came at just the right time. After two straight losses heading in, they reeled off 40 points against the Panthers. That included James Cook demolishing them for 216 yards rushing.
The Bills-Chiefs rivalry over the past 5-7 seasons has been epic. Expect another classic this weekend. Oddsmakers are picking the Chiefs as the slight road favorites – maybe some extra chalkboard motivation for Josh Allen and the Bills?
The X factor here could be Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ all-purpose weapon was all over the field last weekend against the Commanders and should start finding the end zone soon. If the Bills can’t contain him, it could be a long day for Bills Mafia.
Looking for the betting edge in this tight game? Join the club. Both teams should be back at it in January too. That’s how close they are.
But it might come down to the weather. If the rain and cold come as forecasted, it’ll take the Chiefs’ superior passing game down a notch. And it’ll play right into the hands of Cook and the Bills, who collectively have a better running game than KC’s.
Atlanta Falcons (+200) @ New England Patriots (-255)
Are we officially in the Drake Maye era?
The second-year Pats QB is suddenly in the MVP conversation. He’s throwing better – and deeper – week after week, and breaking off key runs when New England needs a first down. Including his stellar 282-yard game against the Browns’ tough defense last weekend, Maye has 7 straight games with over 200 yards passing and a QB rating north of 100. Only Rodgers, Brady, Manning (you know which one), and Mahomes have accomplished that feat.
The Falcons-Patriots odds seem a little easy on the Falcons at +5.5. Here’s why…
Look at last weekend. Miami – soft, uninspired Miami – crushed them. Kirk Cousins also happened, stepping in for Michael Penix Jr., but not stepping up. Drake London was also out.
They’ve also lost their last 4 outdoor games by an average of 19.5 points.
Bijan Robinson’s season-worst showing was also bad news. Robinson shouldered the blame last weekend. If he bounces back with a vengeance, the Falcons could keep this game closer than 5.5, but we doubt it. New England hasn’t allowed a single rusher to pick up over 50 yards all season either.
Ride the Maye wave on this one. Momentum and confidence over the uneven, hobbling Falcons.
Indianapolis Colts (-179) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+147)
Raise your hand if you would have picked the Colts to top the list of most NFL Power Rankings by Week 9 of NFL action.
Jonathan Taylor is looking like a potential NFL MVP every week, and Daniel Jones has found a home and a playbook that matches his talents.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers can still flash his old Hall of Fame self.
But after seeing the Steelers’ pass defense get picked apart by Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft and the rest of the Packers, it’s tough to see how the Steelers keep this game close. Indy is rolling, and their pass offense is even better than Green Bay’s. They lead the NFL in total yardage and are first in points scored too.
Add in the fact that Pittsburgh has given up 30+ points four times already this season, and the Colts-Steelers odds of just 3 points apart look a little too pro-Rodgers.
Arizona Cardinals (+126) @ Dallas Cowboys (-153)
The Arizona-Dallas game on Monday Night Football will feature the one NFL team that has Dak Prescott’s number.
The Cowboys’ QB had a hiccup last weekend but overall is having his best year. But he’s beaten the Cards only once in his entire career. Some teams just take up space in a guy’s head.
Then again, that 2.5-point spread favoring the ‘Boys does look a little light. Dak will be looking for a strong bounce-back game, and it’s not hard to see him lighting up the Cards’ secondary with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. AZ is 25th in the NFL in passing yards allowed this season.
We know Dallas has major holes in its own defense, especially against the run. But with the Cardinals a very average 20th in the league in rushing yards and a running back by committee approach that isn’t really working, it’s manageable.
The Cowboys still have a shot at the playoffs while Arizona is playing for a draft pick. Possible big game ahead for Big D.