What to look for in the Top 5 games of the week
Dallas Cowboys (+330) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-440)
The Micah Parsons drama is still all over the news. And now the Cowboys find themselves coming up even shorter when it comes to their NFL Week 1 odds on Thursday Night Football against the Eagles.
The Cowboys already had an uphill battle when it comes to facing the Super Bowl champion Eagles before trading away their best defensive player. The ‘Boys ranked 28th in the league in run D last season. Heading into a game against Saquon Barkley, with or without Parsons, is bad news no matter what. The Eagles were second overall in rush yards in 2024 and Barkley led the entire league.
Contrarian bets are often where we like to find value, but this one is tough to see from the other side. The Eagles are healthy, and while they did lose some defensive vets, it was nothing to move the needle. They’re still the premier team in the NFL.
But maybe you’re still looking for some rays of hope for Dallas to at least cover the 8-point spread as underdogs.
Intangibles? Maybe Dallas rallies as a unit now that everyone is counting them out. Maybe now that that cloud of the Parsons contract situation has lifted, they’re just ready to ball.
Tangibles: Signing WR George Pickens gives Dak Prescott another legit target to complement CeeDee Lamb. This could open things up underneath for TE Jake Ferguson, who’s at +2000 in the player props to lead the game in receiving yards.
The Cowboys are lacking an elite running back and they might be playing catch-up for much of the game, so expect Dak to be slinging it often.
A safer play, but more than decent value, could be Lamb (+180) or Pickens (+375) to lead both teams in receiving yardage.
Kansas City Chiefs (-177) vs Los Angeles Chargers (+145)
We know these Brazil games are not for us football purists.
Doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy betting on them though.
The Friday night opener for the Chargers and the Chiefs from São Paulo removes any kind of home field advantage.
But historically, KC has the upper hand in this divisional matchup.
KC has won the last 7 straight against the Chargers. And LA’s QB Justin Herbert is just 2-7 against the Chiefs in his career. After a while, that kind of stuff can get into a guy’s head.
Smart money isn’t all that sentimental about personal history though. Especially when it comes to the point spread. Dig a little deeper, and we see that the Chiefs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
While they might pull it together every January, that’s a bottom-tier spread record. Mahomes is considered by many to be past his prime already. Jury’s still out on that, since he’s not even 30 yet. Same with TE Travis Kelce, who is widely considered to be in his last year and is not producing nearly at the level he was 5-7 years ago.
In LA, they might have found their true RB1 with rookie Omarion Hampton. He’s been lighting it up in the preseason. How much stock you want to put into a rookie RB is up to you of course. Hampton will see some action, especially if Herbert is feeling those 2-7 ghosts early. Then again, KC has a Top 10 rush D that is mostly intact from last year’s deep run to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs-Chargers line has been moving all week, so the books can’t make up their minds on this one either.
As always, Mahomes is the X factor here. His career primetime record is an insane 89-23, and Friday night in Brazil is as primetime as it gets.
New York Giants (+220) @ Washington Commanders (-280)
We know that week 1 of NFL betting is chaos.
The books are basing everything on last season’s data, plus there’s all the hype and storylines from the betting public.
That hype includes the Commanders and Year 2 of the Jayden Daniels story. While we’re not necessarily going to fade the sophomore, it’s worth pointing out that Washington’s 12-5 win and playoff success came with some big asterisks.
That included a 52-yard Hail Mary to beat the Bears, a 2-point conversion stop, and a last-second field goal. That 12-5 could have been a 9-8 record pretty easily. And to beat the Bucs in the Wild Card Round, it took a doink off the uprights to win the game.
All the above makes the Giants at +6.0 look like decent value.
Malik Nabers is a legit WR1 already, Jaxson Dart is ready to step into action right behind Russell Wilson if things go south fast, and the addition of top defensive rookie Abdul Carter in the draft will give the Giants pass rush – already one of the league’s best – plenty of shots at Daniels.
There are hundreds of lines and props for the Giants-Commanders, and if you like the Giants to win SU, a Game Line Combo of Giants and Over 30.5 is a solid +245.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-152) @ New York Jets (+125)
Can’t believe we’re still talking about Aaron Rodgers in 2025? Neither can we.
But the guy still dominates the headlines, and as a future HOF’er, we need to give him his props.
It was a great stroke by the schedule makers to make it a Steelers-Jets game right off the opening kickoff to the season. Rodgers will have a chip on his shoulder after a rough 2-year stay in NYC.
We’re not getting distracted by storylines though. It’s the other 21 players on the field that will affect this game as much as a 40+ QB.
Specifically, the other QB, Justin Fields. The Jets’ new QB faces his old team, after never quite getting his career going. How’s he going to play when he’s facing Mike Tomlin, the coach that knows him best? That’s a possible automatic fade of the Jets, when you consider Tomlin is still one of the best minds in the game.
Then there’s DK Metcalf, signed by the Steelers in the offseason. He could still be a game-changer, and he showed solid chemistry with Rodgers in their limited preseason time together.
Lines can get inflated in Week 1 because of storylines like Rodgers’. But that close 2.5-point spread in favor of the Steelers looks like it’s set pretty tightly, and we like coaches in close games.
Baltimore Ravens (-121) @ Buffalo Bills (-101)
A rare game with such a tight moneyline on both the teams, the Bills-Ravens odds on Sunday Night Football give us a lot of room for other action.
It’s one of the highest totals of the opening weekend in the NFL, with a 50.5 O/U. With Jackson and Allen trading blows up and down the field, it feels like we could hit that by halftime. For TD scorer props, fade Jackson at +175 – he only scored 4 rushing TDs all year last season, and he’s got Derrick Henry to handle those now. Instead, look at Khalil Shakir to score a TD at +185. Shakir has been ramping up on fantasy boards all offseason and he’s one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets. Early in the season, offenses like to go with trusted players.