Teams Lie in Week 1. Week 2 Shows Who They Really Are. Bet Accordingly.
NFL Week 2 is when reality slaps the league in the face.
We’re still not sure what it is, what makes teams slide so fast. Or why the ones who laid an egg in Week 1 suddenly wake up.
Either way, it’s important to use a fraud filter.
We’ll show you the signs of fake success and point out a couple of key factors that help separate signal from noise.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Week 2 is the Truth Serum
Week 2 isn’t about who won—it’s about how they did it.
Reality comes at teams fast in the second week of the NFL season. Teams and fan bases that drank the Kool-Aid after one week often get a taste of truth serum in Week 2.
And while there’s no proof patterns really get set for a few more weeks, it’s the second week of games that often expose a team after what is almost just another preseason game in Week 1.
How to Spot a Fraud
Did a rookie QB light up a defense for 300 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1? Yeah, he could be the real deal. Just look at Jayden Daniels from last season, who started well and just got better every week. But he’s a once-in-a-decade talent.
Other QBs – Carson Wentz, Gardner Minshew, RG III – all had huge debuts, but you aren’t putting any of them in the Hall of Fame, right?
Look more closely at the defenses they played in that first game. How did they do last season, and did they do anything to definitely improve over the summer? How many new starters are there? It takes defences time to come together and play as a unit.
Get used to analyzing whether a surprise winning team has the goods to be sustainable over a long season.
Keep in mind: Their Week 2 opponent has been crunching the game tape the minute after the final snap in Week 1. Spotting weaknesses, exploiting blind spots. The rookie, or the team in general, could be in for a rude awakening in his second start.
That same rule applies for any team that shocked the league with a Week 1 win, besides the rookie QB example. You have to look real close at how they won – weather, fluky plays, one big play, or a TD in garbage time to help a team cover.
NFL teams are known for spotting and exposing frauds, and serious bettors should be too.
Bounce-Back Candidates
On the flip side, some teams like to play as a whole different unit than they were in a Week 1 loss.
No doubt some teams are way better than the scoreboard showed in their first game. Look for their roster strength, and some uncharacteristic plays by their top players (remember, a lot of these guys barely played half a game in the preseason to avoid injury).
The way they lost is also key. That sloppy play that won the game for the other team probably isn’t happening two weeks in a row. Or maybe the “blame the refs” whining by the losing fans actually tracks. A tough call or two can make the better team head home with the L, or at least make them not cover.
Character is another thing. I know it’s one of those “intangibles” that the football show talking heads like to fill screen time talking about, but I think it’s a factor.
When a team has solid coaching, with real leaders on both sides of the ball, you know they’re going to come out firing on all cylinders in Week 2.
It’s best to make your Week 2 NFL bets with all this in mind. And I’m pretty sure there will be 2-3 games worth picking up for a bounce-back win.
Line Movement Insight
Before the money flows in and the market corrects, You can usually find some solid value in early NFL betting lines. The books’ opening lines might not reflect a QB’s injury status from a hit late in the Week 1 game, and that’s just one data point.
Since it’s only Week 2, they’re still relying on a lot of offseason and historical data. They don’t know as much as they will by Week 5 or 6.
If the lines are off, avoid following the sheep as a general rule. If a solid team slightly messed up in the first week, and the media is running with a “what’s wrong with the…” story, don’t run away from them like everyone else.
Spotting early lines that offer value also gets you better odds for any games where the books might want to shade the odds by the middle of the week. Look for heavy narratives early in the week that could send casual players in one direction, making the books anxious to balance the money coming in.
Spots and Traps
That Pats shocker over Cincinnati in Week 1 of 2024 was a classic mirage. And a trap for bettors for the following week.
New England ended up pushing in Week 2 and then lost 6 straight, many of them blowouts. They didn’t recover again until Week 8.
I’m betting plenty of casual bettors were running on hope for at least a few of those games, thinking New England would repeat their Week 1 success. Parlays and straight-up underdog picks were ruined.
On the other hand, the Bengals give a perfect example of a good spot for Week 2.
After getting wrecked by the Pats, they played the Chiefs in Week 2 and were a 3-point underdog. But KC was riding on its rep for the last few seasons, and their receivers were not on the same page as Mahomes yet. He had 2 picks and threw for just 150 yards that game. Cincy had Burrow, Chase had another week to get into game shape, and the Bengals covered, losing by just 1 point.
Week 2 is a Market Correction. Use It.
Smart bettors use Week 2 to compare expectations with execution.
I’m not saying you should automatically bet against a team that beat expectations in Week 1. That’s a knee-jerk reaction too. Some teams are legit.
I am saying there are always a couple of teams that probably won’t repeat the same great showing in Week 2, and other teams that will correct course after a shaky start.
Smart bettors look through the hype to play the market correction to perfection.