The Red-Hot Start? It Usually Ends Here. This Week Is a Graveyard for Streaks.
For NFL football bettors, Week 4 is a week to fade the hype and look for cracks in the armor.
It’s a week that humbles contenders and especially pretenders. That goes for teams on the field and for some of us betting types.
If you’ve learned to watch the streaks and pattern-chasing that we warned about for Week 3, by now it’s second nature.
For Week 4, it’s true that some true top teams are rising to the top, but there are plenty of teams who are a pretty thin 3-0. This means the average bettor is still vulnerable to narratives and streaks.
Over the past 5 seasons, 14 teams have gone 4-0 against the spread to start the year. In Week 4, only half of them cover.
That’s a big drop-off, and you want better than coin flip odds if you’re laying money down on a team that could either be the real deal or a poser at 3-0.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
When 3–0 Turns Into 3–1 (and You Lose Money)
Traps are everywhere in the beginning of the NFL season, and Week 4 has more than its share.
We see the same trends in these first weeks. Hype, chasing storylines and looking too hard for patterns that turn out to be mirages.
Week 4 is more of the same. It’s a classic letdown spot for teams and a classic trap spot for too many casual bettors, who end up losing money trying to ride teams to 4-0
What is a Letdown Spot?
NFL Week 4 brings a letdown to a handful of teams that are still undefeated ATS.
It can be any combination of factors, from pumped-up opponents to emotional fatigue or plain overconfidence. And we’ve all seen it hit teams every year.
But that also means you can take advantage. Especially since we can separate the legit contenders from some teams that are full of, well, bullshit.
These are the teams that might be scrambling for a wild-card spot late in December. You can set your watch to it.
Their 3-0 record ATS is the result of a soft schedule so far, or maybe a garbage time touchdown to cover at the last minute.
When they’re getting a tight spread, even as underdogs, be ready to fade them in Week 4.
Streaky Teams That Burn Bettors
Let’s face it. Call it the law of averages or the fancier “regression to the mean”, nothing lasts forever.
Just like flipping a coin eventually brings a new tails after a string of heads, NFL teams run out of gas at some point.
And I think there’s so much parity these days, it’s tougher than ever for a team to really string together W after W.
For me the biggest streaky teams to stay away from in Week 4, or the ones to bet against, are the ones who A) came out of nowhere to start the season, B) had a soft schedule that helped get them overconfident, or C) barely squeaked out a couple of wins on their way to 3-0.
It’s those teams that came out of nowhere that are in for a Week 4 crash, for me anyway.
No matter how a team got to a 3-0 record ATS, it often isn’t sustainable for any of these reasons.
But that brings me to the opportunity to cash in…
Underdogs With Upside
Maybe the biggest reason 3-0 ATS teams hit a speed bump in Week 4 is the desperation of the other team.
The daily football shows and podcasts remind us annually of two things: the unbeaten ’72 Dolphins, and how teams that start out 0-2 or 0-3 are long shots to make the NFL playoffs.
Turns out the only team to go 0-4 and end making the playoffs was the ’92 Los Angeles Chargers.
And the 1-3 teams don’t fare much better. Since 2012, only 13% of them have ended up in the postseason.
I’m also looking at a bunch of highly motivated – ok, desperate – squads at 0-3 or 1-2 who can’t afford to drop another game in Week 4.
And with all the parity in the NFL, I’ll take some of these hungry teams to cover. It’s that simple.
You should be looking at the Week 4 NFL schedule even before Week 3 is done. Some of those ‘dogs might get overlooked by the books with their eye on the 3-0 teams who won that day, and you’ll get an extra point or two of spread, giving the underdogs an easier cover before the lines get tighter during the week.
Week 4 Letdowns
Last season alone, three teams that went 3-0 to start the season failed to cover in Week 4, and the only other 3-0 team pushed.
The Steelers were a classic example last season, starting out a surprising 3-0. But they hit the Week 4 wall hard, losing to a mid Colts team outright, despite being 2.5-point favorites going in.
I could see the Steelers were playing with smoke and mirrors, with not much at QB or otherwise. They lost to Joe Flacco and 168 yards passing. Enough said.
What you should also look for are the 3-0 teams listed as underdogs in their Week 4 game. Over the past 10 seasons, they’ve failed to cover 64% of the time.
Hey, we’re not cheering for failure here, but as a bettor, I like that number. A lot.
Week 4 is for Selling High
In a week or two, I’ll pick back up some of the teams that are showing real strength so far this season. But Week 4 is the week to go with the hungry ‘dogs over the hot favorites.
The market is over-valuing hot teams this week.
At the same time, it’s under-valuing teams that might look down bad, but are going to use Week 4 as the week where they turn their season around.
The stats, and just the law of averages, will back you up on selling high this week.