Hot Takes Become Betting Traps. This Is Where the Book Makes Their Money.
NFL Week 3 is all about chasing patterns. Casual bettors looking at 2-0 or 0-2 records to suit their latest story.
Instead of looking for any big narrative – usually dead wrong this early in the season anyway – you should be trying to find value in the NFL odds.
That’s because storylines become weapons for oddsmakers in Week 3. They know that casual bettors are easy prey, going for the teams that got off to a hot start or seem to be out of the running already.
Two weeks isn’t enough though. It’s like going on vacation for a couple of weeks and thinking you know everything about a place. It’s a honeymoon period. And all honeymoons come to an end.
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The Problem with “Trends” This Early
Sample size is important when it comes to experiments. You need a big enough sample, whether it’s people, germs, or football, before you decide a trend is true or that something is actually happening. Too small of a sample size can produce misleading data and bad decisions.
The same sample size stuff goes for the NFL. Teams that are 2-0 and looking hot might have any number of misleading things going for them. Two easy opponents. Home field advantage. A lucky bounce, a crucial call that went their way.
Same for 0-2 teams. You can already hear the pre-game shows talking about how 0-2 teams are already in the hole when it comes to making the playoffs. But you know better. Unlucky bounces, tough calls against them, top-tier opponents… all these can make a solid team look worse than they are.
Yeah, sure, I get it. In a 17-game NFL season, people don’t have much room for a bigger sample size. They’re eager to make the data matter for their bets.
But two games in? Teams need to show us a little more before we can say which way the wind is blowing.
Why Public Bets Hard Here
Overconfidence is a killer in sports betting.
A lot of casual bettors think they know everything after just two weeks of football. Add the confirmation bias that we all succumb to sometimes, and the result? Bad bets and bad beats.
The public bets hard in Week 3 because of these factors. After the first couple of weeks, where no one really knows how good or bad a team is, people want to go bigger. But most go home.
Double-check your own instincts, make sure that confirmation bias isn’t creeping into your betting decisions.
The Book’s Advantage
The oddsmakers know what’s coming too.
With all that biased, cocky action coming in, the books are licking their chops. So they set the lines to reel in the bets.
Say a team is looking dominant after two games – 2-0 record. But the data suggests otherwise. Maybe they played the two softest teams they’ll play all year. Maybe they got every call or every bounce.
In this case, the book might set the line more conservatively to avoid heavy lopsided betting on that side.
So what looks like an easy cover by that 2-0 favorite? That’s my move to grab the underdog. Or a tight line where it should be bigger for the favorite? I’ll go value-hunting for those too.
How to Avoid the Trap
Value, authenticity. Not streaks or hype.
Check the lines closely, especially the early ones, knowing that the money is going to pour in on the storylines and the books will need to adjust. It’s 3D chess, but it can be simple.
You should even watch for reverse line movement, where the public is heavy into one team but the books shade the line in the opposite direction. They’re trying to CYA, and I get it. But you don’t need to be trapped by it.
And sometimes the smartest move is no move. If some lines look too good to be true, or if you’ve done the work and can’t see value, it’s a hard pass. Or you hedge or reduce your stake.
The best bets are sometimes the ones you don’t make.
A Prime “Hot Team” Fade
A perfect hot team trap happened last season, with the LA Chargers heading into Pittsburgh at 2-0.
The books had this game at a tight, conservative spread of -2.5 for the Steelers.
Were the Chargers as good as advertised? Their two wins were 12- and 23-point blowouts. But I looked at their opponents, the Panthers and the Raiders. Both teams that haven’t even sniffed the postseason in the last few years.
Plus, LA was on their second straight road game. And they had the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs coming up.
All this against a Mike Tomlin-coached team that always comes to play and was also 2-0? Seems like a trap.
The books tightened the line to even out the money coming in.
Result? A cakewalk 20-10 win and an easy cover for Pittsburgh.
I live for games like that in Week 3, with lines that are either tighter than expected or much bigger than you’d like.
Patterns Don’t Predict in September
An NFL fantasy breakout by a player could be a mirage, but because fantasy football and media hype is everywhere these days, you might think it’s real.
When in reality, the team just rode that star wideout playing against two secondaries with more holes than Swiss cheese, and he’s coming into Week 3 for his real welcome to the NFL moment against a real set of DB’s and ball-hungry safeties.
Same for teams that too many are fading too early.
If it’s a new coaching staff on a team loaded with league champs, yeah, they might be 0-2, but they’re probably just finding their rhythm in the new system.
Patterns don’t predict properly in Week 3. Be eyes wide open when it comes to traps and value.
We’re here to make money, not stories.