Week 1 Lies — Or Does It?
Week 2 of NCAA Football is a reality check for teams on both sides of Week 1’s big upsets.
The underdogs that crushed the spread and turned a big program into a soul-seeking mess? Watch out for them in Week 2.
That big favorite that caught a hot upstart and was blind-sided 60 minutes into the season? Don’t fade them too soon – history shows they can turn their ship around and they’ll be there come CFP time.
Overreactions Rule the Headlines
This season has already given us a prime Week 1 upset and an overreaction. Alabama had a 13.5-point spread heading into game 1 against FSU, but they came out on the wrong end of a 31-17 spanking.
But if you read the headlines and listened to the football shows on Sunday, you would think that the Crimson Tide is a sinking ship, while Florida State will re-capture all their glory years this season.
Don’t buy into either side.
In the short college football season, everyone’s opinions are condensed week by week. They all think they have NCAA football fully figured out.
How Vegas Takes Advantage
Vegas? They know how to play into these overreactions 100%.
Week 2 NCAAF lines are quickly adjusted based on recency bias. If money starts piling into Florida State for their next game, they’re happy to shade the lines and squeeze out another point or two to fit the narrative.
For the smart money at Lucky Rebel, college football betting means chilling out on the emotions and headlines and looking for value.
When you fade overreactions or bet into market corrections, you come ahead. Doesn’t mean you don’t take a closer look at teams like FSU, who might have more talent than the preseason showed. Same with teams like Alabama. You look to see if fading them is really the move, depending on their Week 2 opponent and how the FSU game really went down.
This goes for teams that didn’t win by “enough” in Week 1 too…
0-1 ATS Teams vs. 1-0 ATS Teams
Michigan was a 34.5-point favorite heading into their opening week game against New Mexico. But the Wolverines managed to win by just half that amount- 34-17. Result? A likely drop in the Top 25 rankings and plenty of bad press.
But look closer. Some trick plays and special teams miscues kept New Mexico in the game. Michigan’s QB Bryce Underwood looked solid in his very first NCAA game. Don’t fade the Wolverines too hard in Week 2.
This tracks, historically. Since 2010, Div 1 college football teams that lost ATS in the opener have covered about 55% in Week 2.
Those same Week 1 ATS winners drop to around 47% coverage in Week 2.
The Bounce-Back Factor
Week 1 duds can come alive with a solid bounce-back game in Week 2. Good coaches adjust fast; bad bounces that can cut a top team down in the opening week don’t usually happen two weeks in a row; and talented, deep rosters usually find a way to recover and be there in January too.
LSU was a 4.5-point favorite against USC in last season’s opening game, but they went down 27-20. They got themselves sorted out by Week 2, kicking off a 6-game win streak all with a new starting QB in Garrett Nussmeier. Now he’s a Heisman candidate. Look for quality, even after a team takes an L.
Identifying True Problems
So how do Lucky Rebel NCAA football betting fans spot the trap? What’s an overreaction and what are signs of deeper flaws?
Injuries. It could be that simple. 1-2 key players that are destined for the NFL can have a huge impact on a college game. Check to see who was out in Week 1 and if they’re headed back into action in Week 2.
Coaching. Can be a difference-maker or a sign of real dysfunction. New coaches implementing a new system have only a couple of weeks of preseason, so Week 1 can look pretty raw. If it’s a quality name on the sidelines, watch for them to turn things around fast.
Quarterback issues. QB’s have a huge impact on the college game. If a hot recruit looks overwhelmed in Week 1, he might not be ready by Week 2. And if a trusted senior just faced a top D in the opening week and suffered a close loss, he should have the maturity to settle in and start fresh in Week 2.
Bottom line: If a team had a messy loss but has quality in the huddle and on the coaching staff, a bounce-back game could be the play. But if a team looked broken in Week 1 and it really is broken, don’t expect a bounce-back Week 2 effort.
Fading teams that really exceeded expectations in Week 1 is another move, because regression comes fast in the tight NCAA schedule.
Trust the Process, Not the Noise
Another way to cut through the hype?
If you did your homework on NCAA football heading into the season – and we know you did – stick to your preseason priors. Unless they’re clearly wrong, that is. People might be looking at Arch Manning with new, less rose-colored glasses after that Week 1 flop, for example.
Like with any bets, but especially in the extra hyped college football world, it pays to bet with your head, not the headlines.
Final Whistle: Week 2 Tells the Truth
Yeah, Week 1 was chaos. Hope you were positioned accordingly.
Week 2 is a correction to the chaos, where teams begin to reveal their true nature.
Fortunately, not all the books and definitely not the betting public are ready to play it smart.
Bettors who keep their cool will find value in the misreads and the inflated lines. They don’t ride the overreactive pendulum swings in either direction.