At this stage of the NFL season we can spot the pretenders
Heading into the colder months of the NFL schedule, we’re looking ahead to the NFL Playoffs already. We know… it’s no fun to even contemplate how fast the season is going and how many NFL Sundays we have left.
But NFL Futures don’t sleep. There are some great plays to make now that will pay off come January. That means spotting which teams are overrated and which ones could make a late run. The smart money is looking at the longer odds that will cash, and they’re fading the shorter ones that have the books and the public money fooled.
Check the latest NFL odds at Lucky Rebel.
Chicago Bears
Da Bears are coming off a wild shootout win over Cincinnati this past weekend, the latest drama-filled chapter in their up and down – mostly up, record-wise – season. They blew a big 4th quarter lead and needed a last-minute TD to outlast Cincy, hardly a playoff-caliber team.
That 5-3 Bears’ record is a mirage. Caleb Williams is still a middle of the pack QB who can produce INTs as easily as he can big plays. Chicago also has a tough schedule for the next 2 months. Seven out of the remaining 9 games are against teams with winning records. The catch for Williams and the team is their red zone efficiency. They’re at 47%, just 26th in the league. He’s a brand name and coach Ben Johnson seems to be giving Williams a long leash, but that’s not the stat of a playoff team.
Next season, with the rookies and sophs coming back, we might like Chicago. But don’t let their history and big brand name fool you. We’re fading the Bears for the NFL playoffs this season.
Green Bay Packers
The Bears’ longtime division rival, Green Bay, is right there in the overrated category. And maybe the “most confusing team” league leader.
After easily beating the Lions and the Commanders to start the NFL season, the Packers have gone up and down. After those two dominant wins, and their Super Bowl futures rising, they produced a dud against the Browns, losing 13-10 before a strange 40-40 tie against Dallas. Fast forward to the past few weeks, where Jordan Love threw for 360 in a big win over Pittsburgh, only to have them team collapse against the Panthers 16-13.
So yeah, we’re confused by Green Bay. They can be excellent. They can also look like a they’re just not that into you kind of team.
What’s not confusing is the unfortunate loss of TE Tucker Kraft, their best receiver, for what looks like the rest of the season. And those losses to Cleveland and Carolina are not the games that championship teams play.
The Pack’s probability to win the Super Bowl was 11% (among the league’s best) before the Panthers game. It dropped to 6% right after.
Kansas City Chiefs
Can a 5-4 team even be overrated? When it’s Kansas City, the answer is yes. They’re the biggest brand name on this list of overrated NFL teams – and the one we might most regret putting on this list if Mahomes and Reid bring back their January magic.
But right now, the numbers back it up. While Mahomes is putting up big numbers again, especially for fantasy fans, they’re not translating. The Chiefs are in the middle of the pack in points per game at 23.4. Same for their red zone efficiency, currently 17th in the league. Right now, the Chiefs’ dynasty label carries more weight for the books and the betting public than it does for the sharps. When you’re looking at the best competition, the Chiefs were beaten worse than the 28-21 score against Buffalo in Week 9 indicates. Mahomes had just a 44% completion percentage, he took 3 sacks and was hurried 15 times. That’s against a Buffalo team that is a middle of the road 12th in defensive yards allowed. Other teams can take that game film as a blueprint against him. And that home stretch of their regular season is the second-toughest in the AFC in terms of strength of schedule.
Are we saying KC is cooked? Not entirely. Mahomes is still Mahomes, and Andy Reid is a legend when it comes to making adjustments. But we know the Chiefs are often overrated by the sportsbooks and the casual betting fans. They could easily miss the playoffs, and they would if the season ended today. Sharps might like fading them until they show consistency week-to-week.
Underrated Teams
These are the prime candidates to be late entrants into the NFL Playoffs, and you can find an extra edge with them if they’re going head-to-head against those overrated teams.
Carolina Panthers
With yesterday’s handling of the Packers, Carolina served notice to the NFL. Green Bay came into the game as 13.5-point favorites. It was the largest SU win for an underdog in the NFL since 2023. The Panthers have come into every game as a ‘dog this year, but they’re 6-3 ATS in those games. They’re doing it with a strong running game, 5th in the league in yards per game – a key stat for teams hoping to make noise as the weather cools off and the playoffs approach. Running is king in December and January in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings
After the Panthers’ big win, it was the Vikings that had the second-biggest upset of the Week 9 schedule. They took down Detroit 27-24 and demolished the 9.5-point spread. The defensive mastery of DC Brian Flores could take the Vikes far from their current 4-4 record. They just bottled up Detroit’s powerful offense, and if QB JJ McCarthy can get more consistent with his elite receiving crew, Minnesota could emerge from an NFC North that has no clear leader after the Lions.
Atlanta Falcons
The Jekyll-and-Hyde Falcons are coming off a 24-23 loss to the Patriots that came down to a missed extra point. They’re 3-5 right now. But the signs are there for a second half resurgence. QB Michael Penix Jr. is back and has all the weapons in Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson to get it done. They’ve also got the Saints (twice), the Jets and the Cardinals to feast on the rest of the way.