NCAAF Week 4 Trips Up Everyone
Week 4 in NCAA Football is the ultimate trap week. It’s when the preseason shine wears off some teams that managed to skate so far on lucky bounces and a soft schedule since opening weekend.
And it’s when conference matchups begin for real and safe favorites from big schools find themselves in a bitter test for survival against their less famous conference partners or unranked schools lurking just outside the Top 25.
Smart money takes all the unique factors that make college football’s fourth week full of opportunity and finds value, while casual bettors are pivoting too slowly or stuck on yesterday’s headlines.
Why Week 4 Is the Perfect Trap
Week 4 sits at its own special point of the NCAAF season.
Sure, you’ve already seen a couple of AP Top 25 teams squaring off. But a team’s first three weeks every Fall are often loaded with non-conference cupcake matchups. Big programs like to invite these minnows into the shark tank to secure some easy wins, so they can put themselves into position for the CFP or at least grab the six-win minimum needed to be bowl-eligible.
They also rest injured starters or major stars for these games, so sometimes the scores are not a real reflection of the talent. (Don’t shed a tear for the small schools getting stomped; these games often score them a big cheque for their entire program).
At 3-0, casual bettors start picking the favorites almost by reflex. But in Week 4, reality can slam the door.
Week 4 is when conference play heats up, but there’s still a number of non-conference matchups. By Week 5 teams are definitely facing a conference opponent. The first trap is set; teams are looking ahead to Week 5 and not taking the Week 4 team seriously enough. Upsets are primed. Suddenly they have their first L of the season.
When focus drifts, upsets happen.
Watch this week for Oregon State vs powerhouse Oregon. Not necessarily for a SU upset, but a closer game than the massive 34.5-point spread suggests. The Ducks could be in a look-ahead trap waiting to happen, with conference rival and fellow Top 10 opponent Penn State looming next week.
And then there are the sportsbooks.
By Week 4, oddsmakers can rely on enough data to post much sharper lines than in Weeks 1-3. Advanced metrics are more reliable, and they don’t need to lean on last season’s numbers. The casual bettors? They’re still drawn to big brand names and the storylines of the first three weeks, even the preseason hype.
That’s when inflated numbers sneak onto the board. Books will capitalize on the buzz around ranked favorites to catch some more of the public money pouring in. Laying far too many points against quality teams.
How do you spot these quality teams that will help you trap a favorite? We like to look for well-coached squads that are still unranked only because of some early bad luck, maybe a Week 1 stumble. Could be that they’re just not big enough nationally (yet) to get enough eyeballs.
But sharps know who they are.
The Historical Legacy of Trap Week
Week 4 as Trap Week has some recent history to it.
Last season, UNC was favored by 11.5 with a -320 moneyline heading into a game against James Madison. Then Week 4 happened. And all the stars lined up for a trap.
3-0 record against mostly cupcakes? Check.
Looking ahead to a big rivalry game in Week 5 (vs. Duke)? Check.
Playing a solid underdog with an unbeaten record of their own? Check.
The result was a colossal 70-50 track meet, with UNC coming out on the losing end. That’s a 30+ swing compared to the spread.
Same for a Washington State vs San Jose State game that weekend. The Cougars were 12.5-point favorites heading into the game, but it took them a field goal at the end of regulation just to force OT, and they won double overtime. Smart money saw that big line and saw that WSU had ranked conference opponent Boise State coming in Week 5.
The betting play? The trap can be relatively easy to spot, and with big spreads for blue bloods with a tough opponent coming the following week, upsets are the edge.
How Bettors Can Spot a Trap Line
We covered look-ahead spots already. What else is there to look for that smart money can use as data?
Ranked vs Unranked. The public cash, like clockwork, floods into teams with those 1 or 2 digits next to their name in the Week 4 NCAAF schedule. Some don’t spend any time looking at the unranked opponents. You can either play the spread that’s too inflated or look for a single-digit spread that tells you the books are nervous about the ‘dog.
Conference openers. Weeks 1-3 often give the big schools false confidence through mismatches. They still might be sorting through transfer portal players and adjusting lineups, but they could hide their gaps with those weaker teams. Then Week 4 kicks in, with conference opponents who know the other side’s personnel, playbook, and coaching tendencies. Oddsmakers can miss that advantage, or they still don’t downgrade the favorite’s edge enough.
Soft schedules. We covered the caution around an unbeaten record filled with cupcakes already. But check beneath the Week 4 underdog’s record too. A 1-2 or even 0-3 school might have had a tough early start in terms of schedule strength, or they could have had some bad luck or bad calls.
The Annual Trap Week Pattern
Week 4 is a repeatable play for sharps because of modern schedules. Week 4 sits in the middle ground between non-conference cruise control and the grind teeth of conference play. It’s full of strong but unranked teams and their opponents already thinking of conference battles in Week 5.
The headlines and bet slips show it year after year in NCAA football. Upsets, even with Top 15 schools, happen at this time of year. Week 4 is hunting season for mid-range schools. And for smart money too.