Many pro sports seasons are decided in this crucial month
Every championship run in major pro sports has a stretch run where the teams that are built to win it all show who they are. And the ones that can’t hack it get revealed. For baseball, the dog days of August are the ones that often make a difference. For the NFL, NBA, and NHL, that stretch comes in December.
NBA: Fatigue and Stamina Matter
By December, NBA teams know who they are.
Sure, there could be a hot run next March that vaults a team into contention for the playoffs. Or a team that is suddenly putting up bricks when spring arrives falls away at exactly the wrong time. But mostly, it’s December that separates the top teams from the pack.
NBA players have shaken off any early-season rust by December. Players are also settling into rhythm with teammates. The first 15-20 NBA games are all about adjusting to rotations, coaches testing their depth, and watching enough game film to exploit the next night’s opponents. Once December hits, all that early work either pays off or exposes weaknesses in any area. It’s now where mental focus and endurance start to take over and set the table for the rest of the season.
For NBA bettors, the end of year shift is clear and offers some solid edges before the books and the betting public prices things in. What numbers are you looking for? The smart money checks in on things like pace and FG percentages. The league’s average pace slows slightly in December. Field goal % can dip too, and turnovers can rise. Overall, tired teams start to flatten out.
If you’re betting this grind, don’t just hit Under automatically for every game. Strong teams can start blowing tired teams out. But do look for teams in back-to-backs or playing 3 in 4 nights. They can offer an edge, especially if a favorite looks to be coasting after a hot November. Coaches might be shaving minutes for some key players to keep them fresher for January and beyond.
You can spot which NBA teams will be standing next April when you look at their December play. If they are cruising with reduced minutes for their stars and still winning, it’s a good sign of a deep bench that they can rely on for the playoff push.
By the time NBA Christmas Day games roll around, and the big showcase of ego and talent is on display, you’ll also see which players and teams are built to last.
The advanced metrics back it up too. The team that eventually lifts the NBA Finals trophy is almost always already ranked among the top five teams in net rating (the difference between points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions) by January 1.
The smart money looks at that net rating and might consider hitting the NBA Futures months before the odds have narrowed.
The NFL in December is All About Survival
NFL games in December are as much about survival as they are about skill.
Injuries have taken a toll after three months of collisions, no question. Every NFL season, football fans and bettors have lost a Burrow, a McCaffrey or a Hutchinson for multiple months, putting them out of the playoffs. Even less brand-name performers like JK Dobbins or Malik Nabers go down to major injuries and can take away a promising season.
But every team deals with injuries, every year. It’s more or less a push since they all send players to the blue tent at some point.
In December, it’s weather that hits hardest in the NFL. It can put teams either on a path to the Super Bowl or the golf course in February. Everywhere north of Florida and LA, cold, wet, windy weather impacts player totals and teams’ win-loss records.
The playoff margin is razor thin. 9-8 teams get in, while 8-9 teams don’t. One game’s winter blast at Lambeau can put the Packers in the driver’s seat while their opponent from a palm tree location or a dome-friendly crew just wants to go home by the 3rd quarter. Nobody wants to tackle Derrick Henry in December. Pretty much only Josh Allen wants to throw into frigid wind gusts in Orchard Park.
For NFL betting? Teams that are run-heavy can do well in December. Especially cold-weather teams like the Packers, Ravens and Broncos. Even warmer-weather teams who have a strong O-line and a solid RB in a given season can get an edge. This year that means Dallas and Tampa Bay (Javonte Williams and Bucky Irving), as a couple of examples. They’ll also show what they might be able to do come Super Bowl time in terms of ball possession and wearing down a defense.
December weather also exposes quarterback play. Game film has been accumulating for three months which makes it even easier for defenses to attack weak points, but a QB’s frozen fingers and wide receivers who can’t make sharp cuts on slippery fields lead to even more missed passes and interceptions. Passing efficiency across the league typically drops by 7-10% in outdoor stadiums after Thanksgiving. Adjust your bets accordingly.
The NHL Schedule Grind
If you’re betting the NFL in December, we’ve made it clear that it’s a good idea to become very interested in weather forecasts.
For the NHL, it’s a travel agent hat that we recommend wearing.
December is the month where cross-conference road trips and back-to-back goaltender rotations can make a huge difference in determining which teams are standing in April and eventually lifting the Stanley Cup in June.
Ten-day road trips on the opposite coast 2,500 miles away can have a team limping back into their hometown down 4-5 spots in the standings from where they started in December. Or a solid road trip can galvanize a team and fill them with confidence to kick off the remaining part of the season and into the playoffs.
By December, goaltending consistency also becomes a clear difference-maker. Hot streaks in October don’t always hold, but a team’s 1-2 rotation should be very clear. The December grind and often condensed travel schedule exposes or solidifies the goalie pecking order.
You see the trouble the Oilers, as an example, have with starting goalies and the lack of a clear # 1 and a #2 this year. Their return to the Stanley Cup looks less sure this season than any other year in recent seasons. By contrast, the Canadiens went into December last season in last place in the East. Then they settled in on Montembeault as their obvious #1. Montreal turned it all around that month, setting the table for a run to the playoffs with a proven workhorse.
NHL analytics show that expected goal differentials tend to stabilize around December. The early-season, more fluky PDO (shooting + save percentage) streaks start to regress to normal levels. Luck balances out and true talent levels become clearer. It’s exactly the time when front offices also make the decision to make a move for a playoff acquisition or start the fire sale before the trade deadline rush.
Spotting which NHL teams have the best goalie combos and are making the right moves (or trending the wrong way) in December can produce some great NHL Futures bets before the oddsmakers adjust.