New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Expect a highly charged Toronto crew for the Islanders-Maple Leafs NHL game on Tuesday night.
They lost team captain Auston Matthews for the season over the weekend, and they lost face in the eyes of NHL media and fans when no one came to his defence after an ugly knee-on-knee hit by Anaheim’s Radko Gudas.
The Leafs aren’t mathematically out just yet, but they are close to being fully eliminated from the playoffs. They were sellers at the trade deadline too, and now their leading scorer, a former 60-goal player, is out for the season.
The oddsmakers might be factoring in how much Toronto’s going to want to come out hard and send a message to the hockey world. That could be why they’re giving the Leafs almost even odds at +118. Can anger and pride translate into a W though?
On the Islanders’ side, it’s still all about Matthew Schaefer. The rookie D-man has 7 points in his last 7 games. But sitting inside that stat is the fact that he hasn’t scored a goal since March 1st. Regression betting fans might like this game to bet on Schaef as an anytime goalscorer – he’s due. He hasn’t gone more than seven straight games without a goal all year. Plus he’s playing against the Leafs, a team that’s sitting 29th in the NHL in GAA.
An overlooked bet we like? In the Exotics list, you can place a bet on a power play goal to be scored in the first period at +125. We think the Leafs are going to be hitting anything that moves to start the game, and with that comes a higher probability of them committing a penalty. Then you’ve got Schaefer, Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzel and Anders Lee on the PP in the first 20 minutes against that suspect Leafs’ goaltending.
Boston Bruins @ Montreal Canadiens
With Montreal dropping two straight over the weekend, this Bruins-Canadiens clash will have a playoff feel right from the drop.
It’s a classic Original Six matchup, and it’s happening 7 decades later to the day of the Richard Riot (started by events in a Montreal-Boston game three days earlier). The teams still don’t like each other.
Add in the playoff implications – Boston holding the last wild card spot, Montreal hoping not to slide out of a secure spot – and the intensity will be huge. Only one point separates the teams heading into tonight, with Montreal getting the favorite status at -164 to Boston’s +135. Given that tiny gap between the teams, we’re a little surprised to see MTL get the spread of -1.5. This is going to be a tight one, so taking the Bruins to cover looks like solid value.
Cole Caufield, Montreal’s sniper, is looking for goal #40 on the season. He’s the best bet of anyone to be an anytime goalscorer for this one.
Question is: can the Bruins get up for this one less than 24 hours after playing the New Jersey Devils to an OT loss? Montreal’s team speed is among the highest in the league. NHL live betting fans might like to watch 3rd period props as the B’s legs tire out. And if Montreal is down after the first or second period, you might catch solid odds before the comeback is priced in. The Canadiens are tied for 2nd in the NHL in goals per game, behind only Colorado. They can grind the Bruins down with their pace and get some good looks in the third.
Another reason to lean Montreal in this one, if you’re not sure that the Bruins will find their legs? The Canadiens are 7th in the league in the NHL in power play percentage. This is despite going 0-7 in back-to-back games this weekend. That’s due to change soon, and in an intense game, the penalty box might be a popular destination.
San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers
It’s still Connor McDavid’s league when it comes to scoring, but the Sharks have their McDavid 2.0 on Macklin Celebrini.
The rookie is continuing his all-world play since starring at the Olympics, with 14 points in his 9 games since the break. He hasn’t been held off the scoresheet since Feb. 26. It’s a bit surprising to see him at +130 anytime goalscorer odds with this hot streak in mind. That could signal some mispricing. McDavid is way ahead of him with -109 odds to put at least one in the net.
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton’s second-leading scorer, suffered a hip injury on Sunday. The Oilers aren’t saying much but keep an eye on his status leading up to the game – he’s doubtful. Draisaitl is a difference-maker and his absence from the lineup will move the odds, and could/should push the total towards the Under.
Except… the Sharks-Oilers game is a showcase for two of the best players in the NHL. McDavid is going to want to put the league on notice that he’s still the current GOAT, and Celebrini will be motivated to let the boss know there’s a new kid in town. Don’t necessarily hit the Under just because Draisaitl might be out.
And look for some contrarian live betting plays if the Sharks have the lead heading into the third. They’ve played Edmonton twice this year, blowing leads of 2 and 3 goals in those games.
Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche
Talk about the rich getting richer. The Avalanche somehow added one of the top-scoring players available at the trade deadline, Nazim Kadri. Colorado picked up the sniper to shore up their only weak spot, the power play. Somehow the Avs are just 29th in the league at the moment when they have the main advantage.
Kadri picked up his first goal with the team last Thursday, and by now he’ll have had over a week to settle in with his new teammates. Similar to the Bruins-Habs game above, this one has a serious rivalry attached to it, plus playoff positioning at stake. More intensity = more penalties = more PP time for Kadri, and a good shot at an anytime goalscorer payout.
The same goal scoring boost comes on the other side of the ice if this one is full of whistles. Dallas in second in the NHL in PP%, so any number of the top snipers on the Stars – Robertson, Johnston, Rantanen – could find the net in this one.
For the Avs, they’re still leading the NHL in overall points. But with each passing month, whether it’s boredom or vulnerability, they’re dropping a game or two that they should win. Earlier this week, Pittsburgh handed them a 7-2 spanking. Against the Stars, who entered the week just 3 points back of the Avs in the standings, they’ll have their hands full.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Calgary Flames
This is one of those under-the-radar NHL games that the smart money loves to bet. The shiny headlines will focus on divisional battles and brand name players at this time of year. But games like this – East vs West, high stakes for one team at least – offer all the same betting angles with none of the noise.
The odds will lean the Lightning’s way of course – they’re still one of the NHL’s top teams. But entering this week, they’ve lost some of their thunder. Tampa’s just 3-7-0 since the break, and the excuse of a post-Olympic hangover for their top players is no longer valid.
The Flames? They’re in rebuild mode, sitting a sad 7th in the Pacific. But they can still play, beating Carolina and New Jersey recently, bagging 5 goals in each game.
With a home team that can score and another one struggling to regain its form – while also playing the final game of a 4-game road swing and the second leg of a back-to-back – chaos enters the picture. And NHL sharps know that chaos leads to opportunity.