Find the edge for NHL games for the week of March 3-9.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota Wild
The NHL betting odds for Minnesota against Tampa Bay show the level of disrespect that the books have for the Wild this season. Tampa is a juggernaut this year, but Minnesota can hang with any team now.
The Wild also have the edge, 6-4, in the last 10 meetings between the teams. But this Tampa team is a force. They lead the ultra-competitive Atlantic by 4 points with two games in hand, and they’re just two behind Carolina for the overall conference lead.
That dominance was tested last weekend with a loss to the red-hot Sabres. But is this a classic set-up for a bounce-back game for Tampa? Yeah, the Lightning have lost two straight, but those games were against the two best teams in the conference. Regression alone means the Wild could face stiff competition – Tampa hasn’t lost 3 straight since mid-December, after which they went on an 11-0 run. And factor in the idea that those two most recent L’s for the Bolts came right after the Olympics, where TB sent half their roster to Milan.
By now, on three days’ rest, they should be back to normal.
But… there is the goalie factor. Giving up 11 goals in back-to-back games is a bad look, Olympic lag or not. Especially against a Minnesota team that has Team USA gold medal scorer Matt Boldy, the league’s highest-paid player Kiril Kaprizov leading the way with 72 points, and elite d-man Quinn Hughes, who can score from anywhere. The team is 15-5-5 since picking up Hughes.
The Wild are also one game removed from a six-game winning streak. All in all, this should be a tighter line at +117 for Minnesota vs that -142 for Tampa. Sharps will like the edge there, especially in live betting if the Wild take the first period and the books haven’t caught up.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins
Betting on the Penguins-Bruins game? Do you go with the Under based on their January matchup, which saw the Bruins win 1-0? And that was with Sidney Crosby in the lineup for the Pens, which won’t be the case on Tuesday night.
Or do you go with the firepower still on the ice, with Boston’s Morgan Geekie coming off a 9-game point streak and has 33 goals on the season? Factor in David Pastrnak sitting at 5th in the NHL in scoring and Pittsburgh’s 5-0 own win over Vegas last weekend. The Penguins filled the gap for Crosby’s absence with five different players scoring in that game, and 4 of them picking up multiple points. Overall, that 1-0 game looks like an anomaly – these teams can fill the net.
The Bruins are in a dogfight with the Capitals for the final playoff spot at the moment, even though there’s still plenty of NHL hockey to play before the real Stanley Cup race gets going. They’ve picked up points in 8 of their last 9 games.
On the Pittsburgh side, Crosby is getting subbed by players like Yegor Chinakhov, who’s picked up 10 goals since coming over from Columbus to start the 2026 part of the NHL schedule. His anytime goalscorer odds of +285 look like solid value.
Pittsburgh is sitting 5th in the NHL in goals scored per game, so that’s one more element in favor of going Over 6.5 for the total.
Montreal Canadiens @ San Jose Sharks
Starting their West Coast swing in San Jose, Montreal has picked up right where they left off before the Olympic break. The Habs picked up 3 out of 4 points in their first two games back, the last one a 6-2 drubbing of Ovechkin and the Capitals.
Is travel still an issue though? That first road game in over a month, 3,000 miles away, can weigh down players’ legs. But Montreal is the youngest team in the NHL, so conditioning might not hit as hard.
The Sharks have their own young guns to fight back with though. Michael Misa, still two years away from being allowed into a bar in the U.S., has points in each of his last 3 games. Misa potted the OT winner last weekend over Winnipeg too. He’s a big anytime goalscorer play at +460.
More young blood for the Sharks? San Jose also has teenage Olympic star Macklin Celebrini in the mix, and he’s a threat to score multiple times per game. For the “player to score 2 or more goals” odds, Celebrini is +725, followed by the Canadiens’ Cole Caufield at +750. Caufield is fresh off a game with two goals, and remember: he got snubbed by the Team USA selection committee, so he’s got fresh legs and something to prove. Celebrini, meanwhile, played hockey for Team Canada all the way to the final game, and he’s riding 10,000+ miles of travel in the past month. We’re not saying fade Celebrini exactly, but with such similar odds, Caufield is the play.
All the offensive firepower on the ice for the Sharks-Canadiens game is pointing to the Over at 6.5. San Jose’s goalie Askarov has a very average GAA of 3.50, and Montreal is the third-highest scoring team in the NHL.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers
We’re always down for an Original Six matchup, even if the Rangers and the Leafs aren’t playing their best hockey this season.
The two biggest markets in the NHL are both sitting outside the playoff picture now, with the Rangers all but mathematically out of it and Toronto hanging on by a thread. For NHL betting though, both teams still get plenty of attention.
The attention Toronto is getting isn’t great though. Heading into this week, they hadn’t won a game in 27 days. That’s an inflated number because of the Olympic pause, but you get the idea. They’ve lost 4 straight since the break. And this game is the second leg of another back-to-back, which could test them.
It doesn’t seem to matter if Toronto puts Stolarz or Woll in nets, they just can’t stop the puck. The Leafs are 28th in the league in goals against.
Their only edges for this game, if you’re a Toronto bettor, come in two ways. A) they’re still hanging onto a shred of playoff hope, and B) the Rangers are now in full rebuild mode. They offloaded Artemi Panarin to the Kings a month ago and are basically tanking for the NHL draft in a few months. By the time the puck drops on Thursday night, just ahead of the NHL trade deadline, they might have traded away Vincent Trocheck too.
Check the anytime goalscorer odds for the old reliable scorers for Toronto, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and William Nylander. It’s virtually open season on the Rangers’ now and the Leafs are fighting to stay alive.
Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars
With a season-long grip on the top spot in the NHL and everyone’s NHL Power Rankings, the Avalanche look unstoppable. In their first game back from the break, they could afford to sit Nathan MacKinnon and still come up with a 4-2 win over Utah.
But if any team can slow down the Avs, it’s Dallas. The Stars are the hottest team in the NHL at the moment, entering this week on a 9-game winning streak.
The whole team is on fire, but Jason Robertson is hitting a new level. He’s picked up a goal in 4 of his last 5, and he’s coming in fresher than most elite players after sitting at home during the Olympics. Robertson is second in the league in goals scored and his team’s elevated level of play lately could see him rival MacKinnon for the Richard Trophy next month.
As for MacKinnon himself, after some rest following his disappointing – and exhausting – run in Milan, look for renewed fire from the team captain. We like him to pick up the anytime goalscorer play, after just 1 goal in his last 5 games.