Fast ice, fresh legs, and zero rhythm. The early season is full of false favorites – and wild value if you’ve got the guts.
Opening Night of NHL hockey is full of anticipation for puck fans and bettors.
They’ve pored over the pre-season stats and all the highlight clips of training camp, but meaningful hockey? Hasn’t happened since June.
That excitement is awesome for fans, but possible poison for opening night bettors.
Go full speed into the bets and you could get burned.
Skate carefully and you could come out just fine.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
The Overhyped Favorite Trap
Every year we see the same handful of top NHL teams get a disproportionate share of the attention for their offseason moves.
The Panthers stocked up on another top 6 blueliner. The Oilers secured a 2C. The Capitals’ Ovechkin just got a senior’s discount at Applebee’s. Same old same old.
But in a 32-team league with a ton of parity, NHL Opening Night isn’t a sure thing for any of them.
In fact, it’s a trap.
The books like to inflate the lines to go along with the hype that is feeding the big brands like Toronto, Florida, LA, etc.
Public money pours into them even more, ignoring the often better teams from smaller, overlooked markets like Winnipeg and St. Louis.
Plus, the Sportsbooks are relying entirely on last year’s data. They don’t know how the hotshot rookie defencemen is going to perform on opening night, or how well that new first line is going to get its rhythm together in the first 60 minutes of the season.
This all could be why, since 2018, favorites have covered the puck line on opening night just 43% of the time. That’s a stat that’s ripe for sharps to get a piece of.
Favorites in the NHL can stumble coming out of the tunnel for a few reasons.
Rust, for starters, is a great equalizer. If players on both sides are feeling not quite game-ready in their legs, it slows down the better team to a more level playing field. Ok, ice surface.
Coaches also haven’t fully sorted out their starting lines and defensive pairings, often juggling them in the early games to see who comes together best with real hockey on the line. This can also dull the favorites’ edges.
And the underdogs? All they need to do is play loose, hit anything that moves, and keep the score below the puck line. Less pressure means less gripping, more ripping.
Lucky Rebel puck fans will spot the quality underdog, maybe a 7th or 8th seed in last year’s playoffs and a team on the rise, and make the right move.
Fresh Ice = Fast Games, But Not Always High-Scoring
The hype that fans feel watching their team in preseason reaches a peak by the time the first anthem is sung for Game 1.
Optimism is everywhere for new scoring additions from the free agent season and new rookies who lit up the AHL.
Casual bettors take it all in and think the opening few games will be high-scoring affairs, betting the Over or figuring their pick can cover the puck line.
Their loss.
Sharps know that hype almost never translate into goals.
For starters, the fresh ice is glass and lacks the control that comes a few weeks into the season. Passes rattle away off a blade or guys don’t get all of a shot.
Players, especially third and fourth liners, are still skating for a regular spot in the lineup. Up in the box are 3-4 guys in suits waiting to take their place at any moment.
This leads to more pressure, more gripping the stick. Tense players make mistakes and shots miss the net.
Another big factor is the ‘keeper.
Goalies tend to come in sharper than the skaters at the beginning of the season. They don’t need the speed and power to beat guys to the puck or stay upright after a big hit.
They have to deal with fewer moving parts too – no forecheck, no backcheck. Just paycheck. See puck, stop puck.
That advantage goes away in a few weeks as players find their stride and lines come together, but on opening night and in the early games, the goalies have the edge and scoring is lower.
Look for Continuity, Not Headlines
Continuity matters in hockey.
Gretzky once said, “Skate to where the puck is going to be”.
We agree. Linemates and defensive pairs do best when they know what their partners are going to do with the puck and where they’re going to be.
Teams that kept line pairings stable in preseason often outperform early. Sharps can track this relatively easily by following local beat writers, who regularly report on the lines and D pairings in camp.
Core pairings that know each other well play better on the PP and penalty kill. They also manage breakouts better and have fewer breakdowns on defense.
Then when the puck drops to start the season, taking an underdog whose lines were consistent throughout camp has a great shot at beating the puck line over a favorite.
How to Bet NHL Opening Night
Cautiously.
Lucky Rebel players will use the first 4-5 nights of action for some betting, sure. But mostly they’ll use it to sit back and observe. Things are too volatile with line combinations and new players and coaches finding their legs.
But some live for the chaos of opening night.
In that case, fade the public favorites. Remember that 43% stat above.
Look for defensive depth and experience. Solid D calms everyone down while also shutting down the opponent’s offense.
Check for continuity from the preseason and fade the teams that look scattered.
Look at preseason injury listings and see if they run into that latest injury report before puck drop. If the #1 center is nursing a lower body injury, consider the Under and fade his team.
And take notes. Patterns will emerge and you’ll be ready for more action next week.