Why Preseason NHL Doesn’t Reflect Regular Season Form
Every September, NHL fans will hear the fresh scraping of the skates and the pucks smashing into the boards. Like every major sport, NHL preseason comes after no action on the ice at all for many months, so NHL betting fans and even casual bandwagon jumpers get psyched.
But emotions don’t pay the bills. Especially in September NHL hockey.
Superstar Fatigue and Minimal Ice Time
The NHL season, for teams that go deep, can end in late May and even well into June. That’s 8-9 months of lacing up the skates and going through the physical toll of regular season and playoff hockey, where the intensity is turned up to 11. Even teams that miss the NHL postseason send some of their top players for a few weeks in May to the IIHF World Championships.
This all matters because NHL coaches need to keep their top players fresh. Just like you’ll barely see Mahomes or Barkley on the NFL field in August, don’t count on McDavid, MacKinnon, or Crosby to be on the ice much more than the Zamboni driver until just before the regular season puck drop.
The NHL is also a 12-month sport now, conditioning-wise. You’ll see Sid the Kid doing punishing workouts in mid-July. You just might not see him suit up for more than a few shifts in September. It’s high-risk, no-reward for coaches and GMs to send their top players out on the ice in the preseason. But they still do it. Recent years have seen players miss significant regular season time after getting injured. The Canadiens signed Patrik Laine hoping he’d add buckets of goals in 2024. But Laine took a knee-on-knee cheap shot from some player looking to make a name for himself in a meaningless preseason game. Result? He missed the first 3 months of the season.
Other players like Drew Doughty, William Nylander, and Macklin Celebrini all had similar injuries in September hockey that kept them out when the games started to matter.
If coaches shouldn’t risk putting their stars on the ice in the preseason, why should NHL betting fans put their money on the line for the same games?
Sharps know to be cautious when the lineups get released on preseason game day. Seeing some A-lister on the lineup sheet might move the money that way, but that player might be on the ice for a cup of coffee and some shinny before taking the rest of the game off.
Preseason NHL games are for prospects looking to play their way onto the regular season roster, with some occasional action for the returning starters just so they don’t start the season completely cold. Those prospects will log 18-22 minutes easily, while the vets stay in the press box or hit the ice for just 3-4 shifts or one period of the entire game.
Fade the headline narratives when a top player rolls into town in September. There are better ways to maximize your NHL betting.
Value Plays: Where the Smart Money Goes
Step two for cashing in on NHL preseason? Sharps at Lucky Rebel look to find where the value is, not just where it isn’t.
That means you focus instead on top prospects for each team. They’ll get the most minutes for the longest looks. Check the previous game’s box score too, for minute distribution. This could give you a clue who the coaches are looking at.
The young guns will be playing at playoff-level intensity. They’re desperate to grab one of 2-3 open spots on the regular season roster. They have to stand out, even if their ticket to the AHL is booked come October.
Keep an eye out especially for player prospects on weaker NHL teams. They could stand a real shot at making the NHL this season, whereas with a preseason game for a team like the Florida Panthers, with an almost iron-clad roster already in place for October, we might not see as much hunger.
Real betting opportunities can line up when you look at all of these factors.
Teams like the Blackhawks and Canadiens in recent years have often stacked their preseason rosters with prospects expected to play high minutes.
These vet-free, prospect-heavy lineups not only bring effort but also consistency, because prospects have already often played together for a season or two with their AHL affiliates. Sharp bettors will spot this cohesion and know that it beats star power and name recognition in the preseason NHL lines. They’ll even catch value where the books have over-emphasized brand name players heading into a preseason game. NHL Totals betting also offers upside in the preseason. Games regularly trend towards the Under for two main reasons. For starters, coaches restrict that superstar ice time like we mentioned above. In spite of pressure from a host town that might have big stars visiting to put them on the ice, or from the home fans base to get the A-listers going, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Then there are all the chemistry issues. The NHL is a league where line chemistry between all three forwards plus defensive pairings that complement each other really matters. Coaches are constantly tinkering with lines well into the regular season, but especially in preseason games. Power play units aren’t really functioning yet either. It’s a bunch of Lego pieces from a big random box at this point.
All this means NHL September hockey isn’t usually the ticket for high-scoring 8-4 or 6-5 games, though they can happen. The casuals don’t see this usually. They see the big names and possibly some rookie goalies to feast on. But the smart money is often on the Unders.
Key NHL Preseason Betting Trends to Know
To sum up:
Look past the stars. Focus on prospect quality and the number of open roster spots a team has. A motivation mismatch between a team full of holes to fill and another that’s already got its opening night lineup set is a key value spot. Fade the goals. Yeah, we’re all hungry for high-scoring hockey. But in September, totals are lower. Pick your spots and then hit the Under. Preseason totals tend to average lower than regular season totals.
And don’t put any stock in home ice advantage. Except in a few hockey-mad spots like Montreal and Detroit, attendance is lighter, and a lot of the new guys haven’t even been on their home ice yet either.