Public loves the over. Favorites lose in OT. The first week is a mess and that’s where sharp bettors find their edge.
Slow is smooth, smooth is fast. A Navy SEAL mantra.
We admit, the closest most of us will come to the SEALs is at the local aquarium, but the saying could apply easily to betting Week 1 of the NHL.
Slow means not betting every trend that the public is buying. Helps things go more smoothly, after you’ve had time to digest the stats and read the room.
And then the smart money can go quickly to where the real value is, while the rest of the betting world gets whiplash from the unexpected swings and messiness of Week 1.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Overs Hit Hard Early — Then Disappear
In the past five seasons, overs have hit at 58% in the first 7 days of the NHL season.
While forwards get to roam around all over the ice, defensemen are still figuring out their pairing with a teammate and have to stick to their zone.
On defense, you have to develop a rhythm with your partner, and that can take time. Knowing when he’s taking the puck up ice and you need to stay at home, or when you’re heading into the corner you want to know he’s picking up a forward.
So, in NHL Week 1, while McDavid, Pastrnak and MacKinnon all have fresh legs from the offseason and are flying down the wing and teeing off on the goalie? A defensive pairing is often left wondering who’s got who.
This leads to more goals in Week 1 and a statistical anomaly that bettors love: close to 60% of Overs hitting.
The flurry of Overs also comes from goalies still finding their own reflexes and timing in real game conditions.
Refs also contribute to the scoring outburst, as they assert control and also have to consider any new rule changes. They can get a little whistle-happy, which leads to more power play goals.
What does all this mean for sharps and smart money betting on the NHL?
Play some Overs in Week 1, sure. The books know scoring is higher but they still need to be cautious when setting the lines.
But a better play is to watch the public money still flood the Overs in Week 2, with Sportsbooks happy to oblige with inflated lines. That’s when we look for value in the Unders, especially with an elite goalie or a top defense in action.
The whiplash for casual bettors comes fast.
After the defense finds its footing closer to Week 2, NHL scoring drops to the season-long average of 48%-51%, with Unders actually hitting more soon after the chaos of Week 1 dies down.
OT Losses Crush Favorites
Top-seeded teams lost 38% of OT games in the first week in 2023.
That means they still won the majority of those games. But for bettors, that 38% means the expected winner went down more than 1 out of 3 games.
Bad beats on moneyline bets. Parlays crushed.
The nature of OT in the NHL is always designed chaos anyway. The 3-on-3 format that started in the 2015-16 season was meant for more excitement for fans.
But it’s a roll of the dice for NHL betting fans.
That 3v3 format strips away the power of stacked rosters, since the weaker opponent can trot its top two lines for most of the five-minute period.
In Week 1, teams are still finding their most potent OT combos. Regular RW – C – FW lines are mixed up to include a defenseman. Coaches are using a trial and error approach for the first number of overtimes games until they find the most productive units.
For Lucky Rebel’s live betting on the NHL, pro tip: don’t automatically lay chalk on the favorite going into OT, especially in the first week.
You might even sit back and bank the cash for a few weeks down the road, when you know which favorites have a truly dominant OT game.
Follow the Sharp Money, Not the Fan Hype
Public hammers high-profile matchups. Sharps win on smaller-market teams with stable goaltending.
Sportsbooks ramp up advertising near the start of a new season for all the big sports. And around big brand on brand games.
They know the public appetite is already big for both these periods. So they’re more than happy to feed the beast some more hype.
Casual bettors hit full send on big-market teams. They know the names on the front and back of the jerseys and feel more comfortable laying money down on the known vs. the unknown.
Sharps, of course, look at the first week or big games from all angles. They’ll play them, if there’s an edge to be had.
But just as often, they’ll play the smaller market games and fade the big ones completely.
Real value and stable NHL odds are worth way more.
What does the sharp money really value in Week 1 of the NHL season?
Stable goaltending. No unproven hotshot rookies with a 1.98 GAA from the AHL. No goalie-by-vibes teams, where you don’t know who the #1 and #2 goalies are from night to night.
Sharps look for reliable, quality #1 goalies. Usually the ones returning from the last few seasons, so they’re not overwhelmed by the opening week or the big opponent. Doesn’t matter if it’s Columbus, Buffalo, or some other small market team. Value is value.
Continuity. A limited number of offseason moves, no clearing house, and established forward lines and defensive pairings that have a couple of seasons under their belt. They’ll come together quicker and hit their stride faster, while other teams are still juggling.
That’s where the smart money goes in Week 1.
Less public hype. This moves the lines less before puck drop, as big money moves things while less money keeps it stable. And some books will devote too much time and energy with the big boys, letting an edge in here and there on the less popular games that a sharp can capitalize on.
Follow the smart money’s approach to stability, smaller market games, and less noise.