The breakout star in net? Usually crashes back to earth. Week 2 is when smart money stops chasing streaks.
NHL goaltending is one of the more predictable games in sports.
Save percentages hit the same tight range year after year. That means any spikes above it are coming down soon.
Week 2 NHL bettors should factor in the drop after a goalie stands on his head in Week 1, especially if he’s not on the league’s A-list of goalies.
And those A-listers? They’re coming back strong after a rough first 7 days…
Lucky Rebel’s NHL betting fans know all this and find value where everyone else is riding a short trend.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Goalie SV% Spikes Aren’t Sustainable
Sky-high save percentages in Week 1 of the NHL season can get fans and casual bettors thinking the next Hasek or Roy has arrived.
Money piles in on that goalie’s team, not just for NHL moneyline bets, but for totals (Unders) and props too.
But they have to know regression is coming, right?
Spoiler: they don’t.
But smart money does. And it comes as early as Week 2.
Sharps know that most goalies with .940+ SV% in Week 1 regress to .910 or lower by the end of October.
Just looking at save percentage over a full NHL season, we see that most goalies end up in the .910-.930 range. The elite net-minders will flirt with .940 over the complete schedule, but only 3 of them have finished above that number since 1970.
The Bruins’ Linus Ullmark was the most recent to finish close to that magical .940 mark, with .938 in the 2022-23 season.
The counter-narrative? Sure, anyone can string together two shutouts in opening week. Some teams are still sorting out their lines. Coaches are juggling them in the second period already. Or it could just be a soft match-up.
That means scoring for a few teams might be way down, and that opposing goalie looks like a legend.
Otherwise, lucky bounces and rattled posts can happen over a week to make an average goalie look good.
But after that hot week, they run into reality against a top team rolling the same 4 lines all game, coming in waves. Shooters have dialed in their pre-season jitters, and those posts that were the goalie’s friend in Week 1 are no longer coming out to play.
The smart money? Not chasing. It’s looking away from goalie hot streaks. And looking toward the team defense as a whole.
A solid core of defensemen might help sustain those great save numbers beyond Week 1.
A shaky D will be exposed though, along with the goalie. And the lines will not adjust in time, while the sharps will.
Bet the Bounce Back, Not the Hype
On the flip side, an elite goalie who had a tough start in Week 1 could be primed for a comeback in Week 2.
And that means great value for the smart NHL betting fan.
They recognize that regression works both ways. Those unproven hotshots in Week 1 are coming down to earth, and on the way they’re crossing paths with the proven G’s who are on their way back up. Towards the top 5 in goaltending and a Vezina nod later in the season.
Juuse Saros is just one example. The fantastic Finn had a rough start to the Predators’ first week in the 2023-24 season.
He allowed 4 goals in two different games, including a really-bad-looking 12.72 save percentage against the Oilers?
That was Week 1. Straight after the Oilers game, Juice got loose though.
He let in just one goal in each of his first two Week 2 starts and wouldn’t allow more than 2 goals in a game for almost 4 weeks.
Bettors who know quality, who can look at a player’s history and pedigree, can spot an anomaly, especially so early in the year.
Saros’s save percentage went straight above .930 the next week. Lucky Rebel Players would have spotted it early, knowing his rep and the fact that he was in the top 6 in Vezina voting for 4 straight years in that period.
He would have delivered excellent value in those bounce-back games, as books and the public bettors faded him by taking the Over or giving larger spreads.
Unders Rise When Goalies Normalize
As hot streaks cool, scoring stabilizes. Unders start to hit at a 52–55% clip league-wide in Week 2 of the NHL.
It seems like a contradiction.
The scoring spike of Week 1 slows in Week 2. At the same time that the hot goalies get worse too?
Sharps will know to dig into this a bit.
What’s actually happening cuts across the game and the Sportsbooks.
Defensive systems tighten up. That pair that miscommunicated in Week 1 and let in 4 goals in a period? You know the coaches broke down the film soon after, and a few simple adjustments were made. Holes plugged.
Penalty rates drop. Teams get more in step with the latest rule changes. They also get their legs into better game shape, so a lazy hooking call is solved with a couple of extra strides. Fewer power plays.
The Sportsbooks adjust their totals more slowly in the early season, as the real data only starts to accumulate.
This means the totals that are pumped up from Week 1 don’t come down as fast as they should. More value in Unders.
All this happens while goalie numbers normalize. They don’t drop off a cliff in Week 2. It’s consistency, not collapse.
It’s all down to tighter hockey.
In each of the previous 3 seasons, the total goals per game has dropped off by 0.7 from Week 1 to Week 2.
In 2023-24, 58% of games went over the posted totals in Week 2. In the second 7 days, only 46% went over. That’s scoring down, players getting sharper on defense, and the books’ lines starting to adjust.
We know Lucky Rebel players will find which teams are ripe for that downturn in scoring and capitalize.