Now that the books have data, lines get tight and inflated teams finally get exposed. This is where underdogs start cashing.
Once Sportsbooks have enough data, their pricing improves. But public money hasn’t caught on.
While the books are happy to play into public sentiment in favor of the favorites for a bit longer, the underdogs are where the value is in Week 3.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Regression Teams Are Easy to Spot If You Track PDO
PDO – not an acronym, just some guy’s stat term invented in his basement – has become an NHL betting fan’s key to spotting teams that are due for a downturn.
It’s a figure that comes out of a teams’ shooting percentage + their save percentage, multiplied by 100.
Because high percentages in both stats (shooting and save %) usually indicate a hot run instead of sustainable, “normal” averages, you can see which teams are running hotter than they should.
Call it puck luck.
Most teams and players will eventually shade toward a PDO of 100. A high PDO (above 102–103) often means a team is getting more than its share of luck, like unusual shooting efficiency or a hot goalie.
A low PDO (below 98–99) means the opposite: the team is suffering bad luck, and they’ll get better as the season continues.
Possibly as soon as Week 3 for both types of regression.
High PDO teams over 103 drop off 75% of the time when Week 3 arrives, so you know they’re already candidates for sliding in Week 3.
Sharps will catch them facing a strong opponent or the second game of a back-to-back. The value lies in the books not catching the regression as quickly as you can. Public money will be behind the curve too. But some of these teams are a prime fade.
Books Adjust to Public Darlings Fast
The public cash loves the big-market NHL teams in the early weeks of the NHL.
First off, there’s just demographics. There are more humans in NYC and Toronto than there are in St. Louis and Winnipeg. So the big teams simply have more backers.
But the same 5-7 teams also dominate the headlines in the months leading up to the NHL season. The lead hockey story almost always covers a larger market team. The teams outside of the spotlight just don’t rate.
And that’s perfect for Lucky Rebel players.
Like all the other sports and all the other storylines, sharps look away from the noise to find value.
In this case, the Sportsbooks are also human. They adjust quicker to the bigs than the mid-level or small teams. This means that the Leafs or Rangers, if they’re doing well and covering around 60% of the time in the early part of the season, get the quickest correction from the books.
Sportsbooks don’t want to leave any low-hanging fruit when there’s such a volume of money being wagered on these bigger teams.
By Weeks 3 and 4, that adjustment means those same teams will cover at or just below the 50% mark. Teams like Toronto and NYR are as susceptible to regression as any team in the league.
Casual bettors will still flock to the Overs on these “hot” teams, while sharps will turn in tandem with the books.
4D chess. Smart money can play this in a couple of ways: play the honest odds by picking underdogs against these teams that are suddenly much less likely to cover. This takes timing though.
Or stay away completely from them and focus on the less-adjusted smaller market lines.
Dogs Start Barking
While Weeks 1 and 2 of the NHL season see the favorites in control, Weeks 3 and 4 see the underdogs come to life.
NHL favorites win 54-57% of games outright in the first couple of weeks. The lines are still not that tight as the books figure out who the stronger underdogs are. The favorites are often the playoff teams from last season, so they are likely stronger.
But with no real data this season yet, the books can’t get this down close to the 50% balanced money just yet.
By Weeks 3 and 4 though, the data comes in. Numbers are crunched. Teams are rated correctly.
And on the ice, teams that were rolling in the early weeks are hit with a perfect storm.
Travel fatigue can set in, often with the first big road swing of the year.
Game tapes on the favorites are studied. There are no more surprises, and the ‘dogs know the favorites’ weak links now.
And the rosters as a whole have stepped up their game. Line combinations are more set, game pace is under control, defensive pairings know each other better, goalies are sharper, and snipers have fine-tuned their sights.
All this adds up to a big turnaround starting in Week 3. Outright underdog wins climb close to – and sometimes over – 50% of the games played.
Sharps aren’t daunted by this swing. They look for quality underdogs who are more likely to cover. Even if the books have adjusted the NHL odds for the favorites to come down to earth by Week 3, the shading is still towards them, while the value is in the ‘dogs.
Your Week 3 Playbook
We like to play the NHL betting in Week 3 a few different ways.
Yeah, sorry, there’s some homework involved.
First, you want to track PDO stats on a daily basis. Starting in the third week, any team sitting at 103 or higher is good to fade on the moneyline and the puck line.
Same goes for teams hitting below 98, but in reverse. You might take them to hit an easy cover or plus odds on the moneyline, since they’re due for some W’s.
Next, earn your scouting badge.
Look for underdogs teams around .500 who have a solid defense and a rock-solid #1 goalie. The advance scouting means tracking defensive performance stats, goalie performance, and close losses over the first 2 weeks.
Finally, consider staying away from the big brand names unless you’re confident you can time their regression swing perfectly. Instead, there’s value in the NHL schedule every night in smaller markets. Overall, know that luck fades and historical patterns are undefeated.