The scoring surge always fades. Track record shows Week 4 is when the goals drop and the market adjusts.
Week 4 in NHL betting circles marks a separation of smart money from the herd.
We know Lucky Rebel bettors have been doing that since the opening puck drop of the season.
But this week, sharps have an added edge, seeing the Unders as a play for many games while the public is still riding the Overs.
The market will adjust – books are paying attention. But this week is your shot to get ahead of the game before they also bring the totals down.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Scoring Drops By ~0.5 Goals/Game League-Wide
In a game where the difference between cashing a big payday or hitting a bad beat can be a goalpost or a puck not quite crossing the red line, 0.5 goals matters.
The scoring surplus winds down in Week 4 of the NHL by half a goal.
But teams were filling the net in those early weeks. What gives?
A couple of things.
Fatigue. Those long road trips don’t exactly kill players, but there’s enough by Week 4 to take just an edge off of their first stride. Breakaways in Week 1 become poke checks by the D-man in Week 4.
Goalies get tending. At the same time the skaters are slowing down, the goalies’ hot and cold save percentages of the early weeks even out. Gone are the 7- or 8-goal outings.
Coaching gets structured. NHL coaches have among the shortest coaching life spans in pro sports. They last between 2.2 and 2.6 years on average.
What that means is they can’t afford to tinker with forward lines much. They’re feeling the heat. And the easiest way to settle a team down and win some close ones is to clamp down on defense.
Last season, there were 6.6 goals per game in the league in Week 2.
In Week 4, that total dropped to 6.1.
A similar drop hits pretty much every season. And while books and public money start turning their totals expectations downwards, there’s still value for the smart money.
That’s because the books don’t drop it fast enough.
Opportunity knocks. The individual Lucky Rebel bettor can turn around faster in Week 4 and start cashing Unders that might hit more easily than a few weeks from now.
Unders Hit at 57% Week 4–5
Like the leaves on the trees, NHL Overs change to Unders later in the fall.
OK, enough poetry.
The market is slow to adjust from the high totals in Weeks 1-3.
And sharps cash.
It’s good to understand why the books (and the betting public) keep those totals inflated for a week or two past their best before date.
Recency bias. It’s a basic human thing, where the recent results are used to predict the next outcome. People hold on too long to an existing narrative before embracing a new one.
Sportsbooks do the same, but not for long. Your window in Weeks 4 and 5 is small before the books trim down their totals.
The last two season have Unders cashing at 57% of games across these two weeks. Season-long, the books have it dialed at 50%.
That’s a solid edge for Lucky Rebel bettors.
The public? Yeah, they’re humans too. They don’t want to ditch what was working the first part of the season. Even though history doesn’t lie. More recency bias, more inertia. Clutching those Week 4 Overs like pictures of a high school ex.
Sharps have trained themselves to overcome these flaws in our wiring.
Low tempo > High tempo. With the exception of a few NHL teams that keep it floored, most teams ease up on the gas in Week 4.
Defensive traps become more common, as teams who realize they can’t hang on the offensive pivot to one thing they can do. Suffocate scoring.
The injuries begin to pile up too. With most of the league healthy to start the season, it’s Week 4 where those “lower body injury” reports start to become more common. With starters out, it’s obvious that their replacements won’t match their output.
Going with the Unders more often in Week 4 isn’t just contrarian.
Best Unders: Tired Teams, Tight Coaches
Coaches change and players change. You know this. So take the following with a grain of salt.
But for this moment in the NHL, there are couple of teams that NHL betting types can bank on to keep the scoring to a minimum.
Los Angeles Kings: Edmundson and Doughty play a defensive front for the Islanders that is like playing keep-away with the puck. And netminder Darcy Kuemper had a miniscule 2.01 GAA last season. Plus, he was in his 13th year, checking box for our criteria of reliable, stable goaltending.
Kings for the Under in Week 4? We could do worse.
Winnipeg Jets: Classic Unders pick for smart money. Small market, overlooked by major networks and commentators. And a brick wall in nets.
Connor Hellebuyck, the Jets’ goalie, won the Vezina and started more games than any other goalie in the league. The whole team’s D scored the Jennings Trophy, for the fewest goals allowed all season.
Toronto Maple Leafs: With the third-fewest goals allowed last season, the Leafs are returning their entire defensive core for this year. Another box checked: a returning, established defensive unit.
Check the Numbers, Bet the Unders
Smart money follows the smart stats for getting the max value week-to-week in the NHL.
Check out the xGA/60 stats for hockey teams to sniff out the best Week 4 Unders. It’s the expected goals against over 60 minutes.
Low xGA/60 is a solid tool for measuring overall defensive effectiveness.
It’s not just looking at an elite goalie, but it takes in blue-line depth and execution.
The best factors for cashing in on some Unders in Week 4.