Everyone loves the hype horse. Past trends say that’s a great way to burn your bankroll. The Derby is chaos – the numbers prove it.
Forget how big the name is in all the media.
Never mind how dominant the horse’s prep races were. Or the trainer’s star power.
Math and history tell us that betting the Derby favorite is a poor deal.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Favorites Have Only Won 35% of the Time
Since 1908, 117 races.
That’s what makes the Kentucky Derby one of the most iconic races in all of sports. There are older horse races but this is the shiniest one.
Horse racing bettors with any smart money in their pockets don’t go to the window and bet the favorite to win though.
They know that out of those 117 races, the favorite has entered the winner’s circle just 40 times.
That’s close to 35%. Not enough to stake your bets on, unless you like losing money. Lucky Rebel players don’t.
That means betting the losing side twice every 3 years.
What’s the Kentucky Derby favorite up against?
Age issues. The Derby is restricted to three-year olds. Some of them have barely raced. The pressure – and horse people will tell you horses most definitely feel the pressure of the Derby compared to regular races – can cause too many nerves, even for favorites.
Unpredictable dynamics. Factors like weather – making muddy tracks the main issue – add to the potential trap for Derby favorites. Mud is the great equalizer.
The starting gate draw is completely randomized. It’s the RNG of horse racing.
A favorite could draw a bad post position and have his odds immediately drop. Post position 17, the ”cursed post”, has never produced a winner at the Derby. Last year’s favorite Fierceness drew 17 and finished 12th.
Lucky Rebel bettors might want to hedge if their pick draws 17. Or for that matter, 1, 18, 19, or 20.
Post position 1 hasn’t given horse racing fans a winner since 1986. It’s the traffic-heaviest gate to start from, and even the most talented horse can’t create miracles if there are too many horses keeping them pinned to the rail.
Horses at the high post numbers have to cover more ground and use extra energy to get into position early.
Post 18 has produced just two winners, and one of those was helped by a DQ. Positions 19 and 20 have ever only seen two Derby winners emerge.
Race pace. Favorites can sometimes set the pace with a solid start and minimal traffic. But just as often, the pace that is set is out of their hands. Or hooves.
This makes them run the race that they might want to, depending on their racing style.
Public Money Shrinks Value
The Kentucky Derby draws all kinds.
The serious horse bettors, of course. The people grinding on a rainy day with 50 people in the stands at Saratoga.
Lucky Rebel players know this guy. And even are this guy sometimes.
Then there’s the rest of the circus surrounding the Run for the Roses.
The casual bettors, the ones betting horses online and the celebrities sporting the flashiest drip at the Derby itself? They’re the ones most likely flooding the betting pool and laying chalk bets on the favorites.
But what they’re doing is shrinking the value, often by a lot.
They’re turning the favorites into break-even bets and even negative plays.
The odds drop, first of all. With so much money on the favorite coming in, the books need to balance the cash by shading the odds. Fact: in the last 15 Derbys, at least 9 of the favorite’s payout was lower than their actual win probability.
Casuals are betting the favorite at an implied win rate lower – sometimes way lower – than the top horse’s actual chances.
Here’s a straight example:
A favorite horse at 2-1 comes with an implied win probability of 33%.
In reality, the favorites win just marginally more often, 34-35% of the time.
That means a break-even is coming your way at best. And that’s before the track take-out, and it also means picking the true favorite.
Lucky Rebel players are probably using a better strategy.
Focusing on horses that have a late pace game, better for the big, crowded field at the Derby.
Along with researching which horses have steadily improving speed numbers in the prep races. They might peak at just the right time in Lexington.
Chaos Comes from the Field
Big field = big chaos.
The average non-Triple Crown race has 8 or 9 horses in the running.
Even the Preakness and Belmont Stakes max out at 14.
But with up to 20 horses flying out of the gates for the Kentucky Derby, no matter how strong a horse is, they’re going to get bumped right from the first couple strides.
Worse, they can get boxed in for the first quarter mile before they can show why they’re the favorite. By then it can be too late to make up ground.
Basically, the Kentucky Derby turns into roller derby.
Even then, as the favorite starts to separate from the field, there are still several top horses to battle. They could get forced wide on the turns. Or caught up behind a big behind of a slower horse.
With a smaller field, during the prep races, the favorites actually made their case to become favorites. Talent is rewarded and can shine though.
With a bigger field, there are so many landmines.
Then there are the upsets. It seems like there’s a fresh one every other year.
In the last 5 Kentucky Derbys alone, 3 different horses have pulled off major upsets. Country House pulled off 65-1 odds in 2019. Rich Strike wasn’t even looking to be in the race and came down the home stretch to win at 80-1.
And last year’s winner Mystic Dan, at 18-1, cruised past the 5-2 favorite Fierceness to win it.
In short, so many things can go wrong for the favorite just based on the sheer field size of the Derby.